{"market_id":"ercot-central","generated_at":"June 2026","schema_version":"1.0","claim_count":8,"claims":[{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ercot-central:pgiq_tier:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ercot-central","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ercot-central"},"predicate":"pgiq_tier","value":{"base":2,"label":"Strong"},"unit":null,"definition":"PGIQ tier for siting a large new electricity load; a directional screen, not a connection guarantee","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"n/a (opinion)","coverage":"all rated markets","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"High"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"tier definitions","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The deliverable half of Texas: the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth load pockets sit close to generation on a robust transmission network, so power actually reaches the site. It costs more than the wind-rich west, but it is where the large data-center corridors are and where a firm 24/7 load should look first.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:bb8fa31a1d25b300bdebf85af50db8af52d3ad16499541560540818f18484087"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ercot-central:recurring_power_cost:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ercot-central","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ercot-central"},"predicate":"recurring_power_cost","value":{"low":55,"base":72,"high":95},"unit":"USD/MWh","definition":"recurring energy, network, delivery, taxes and levies per MWh; EXCLUDES customer-funded connection capital","project_archetype":"100mw_flat_95pct_lf_transmission_level","as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"triangulated","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"triangulated","coverage":"2 public fragments","model_uncertainty":"band spans structuring outcomes","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"ERCOT 2024 load-zone prices (Modo Energy)","title":"ERCOT 2024 load-zone prices (Modo Energy)","url":"https://modoenergy.com/research/en/ercot-power-prices-2024-energy-arbitrage-ancillary-services-hub-load-zone-west-north-south-houston-panhandle","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"ERCOT 2024 State of the Market (Potomac Economics)","title":"ERCOT 2024 State of the Market (Potomac Economics)","url":"https://www.potomaceconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2024-State-of-the-Market-Report.pdf","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"price components","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":{"formula":"sum(components)","model_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","inputs":[{"component":"Wholesale energy","usd_per_mwh":52},{"component":"Transmission & delivery (4CP)","usd_per_mwh":15},{"component":"Ancillary services","usd_per_mwh":5}]},"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The Houston and DFW load pockets pay a premium over the west for deliverability: generation sits near the load and the transmission is robust, so a firm 24/7 load can actually draw its power. That deliverability is what the premium buys.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:b61b6898f098b2c86e463fdcfc6703f80dbe55c91bf52077ca8279ea7c8579d5"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ercot-central:connection_wait:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ercot-central","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ercot-central"},"predicate":"connection_wait","value":{"low":12,"base":24,"high":24},"unit":"months","definition":"from a complete application being accepted to full firm energization of the nominated MW, expressed as a band. Initial, phased, temporary and conditional energization are separate, earlier milestones. Derived from the operator process and market evidence rather than a measured project cohort.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"modelled","method_source_label":"proxy","confidence":{"source_quality":"Med","coverage":"band, not a measured cohort","model_uncertainty":"stage durations overlap and vary by project","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"ERCOT interconnection process","title":"ERCOT interconnection process","url":"https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"process stages","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":{"formula":"sum(stage_durations)","model_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","inputs":[{"stage":"Application & screening","months":6},{"stage":"Interconnection study & agreement","months":6},{"stage":"Construction & energization","months":12}]},"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Energy-only connect-and-manage keeps Houston and DFW among the fastest large-load connections in the US.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:45a0cdef9da56989ea7df2a6092e21ba3a3aded8123c47ce29f5c0838be9bf97"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ercot-central:load_queue_depth:june-2026","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ercot-central","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ercot-central"},"predicate":"load_queue_depth","value":{"base":445,"data_centre_share_pct":77},"unit":"GW","definition":"capacity in the operator's LARGE-LOAD (demand) interconnection queue: loads waiting to draw power, not generation waiting to connect. A request pipeline, not approved load. ERCOT-wide, not specific to this zone","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"operator or reported figure","coverage":"as of April 2026","model_uncertainty":"request pipeline, attrition not netted","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"ERCOT large-load queue nearly quadrupled, Latitude Media (Dec 2025)","title":"ERCOT large-load queue nearly quadrupled, Latitude Media (Dec 2025)","url":"https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/ercots-large-load-queue-has-nearly-quadrupled-in-a-single-year/","published_at":"April 2026","retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"queue figure","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"ERCOT was managing requests for roughly 445 GW of prospective new load by 2033 as of April 2026, up from about 226 GW in November 2025, roughly 77% data centres. Reported ERCOT-wide; ERCOT does not publish a zonal split.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:4468ff1fbb8caba211131c548d13859946579ad287456a6bee39aa01a0f4e2ec"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ercot-central:delivery_reliability_saidi:june-2026","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ercot-central","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ercot-central"},"predicate":"delivery_reliability_saidi","value":{"base":98.33},"unit":"minutes per customer per year","definition":"regulator outage measure (SAIDI or stated equivalent) for the distribution network;","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"measured","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"regulator filing","coverage":"year 2024","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"EIA Form 861, Schedules 3B and 3C (annual electric power industry report) (two major-event methods, IEEE; respondent-defined, customer-weighted blend of 3 of 3 territories, 100% of customers, regional context only)","title":"EIA Form 861, Schedules 3B and 3C (annual electric power industry report) (two major-event methods, IEEE; respondent-defined, customer-weighted blend of 3 of 3 territories, 100% of customers, regional context only)","url":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/","published_at":"2024","retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"reliability summary","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":null,"schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:8c462425b062ce1892e8421e4d165fbc2b599ec5ba379b970e682d8d44755cb2"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ercot-central:forward_adequacy:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ercot-central","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ercot-central"},"predicate":"forward_adequacy","value":{"base":"elevated","label":"Tight"},"unit":null,"definition":"forward firm-supply adequacy for a prospective large new load; level vocabulary none|watch|elevated|severe","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"forward","method_source_label":"assessed","confidence":{"source_quality":"modelled read","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"not site-specific","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"NERC 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment","title":"NERC 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment","url":"https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/2024-ltra_corrected_july_2025.pdf","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"NERC's 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment rates ERCOT elevated-risk grid-wide: about 20 GW of new large loads plus a more variable resource mix raise the risk of long-term shortfalls across the interconnection.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:1a00316c9f4971b2c68a0a15b26ef7d87f65b9230523a72eac3fc28e3d06964b"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ercot-central:local_capacity_route:june-2026","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ercot-central","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ercot-central"},"predicate":"local_capacity_route","value":{"base":"ERCOT Large Load Interconnection Study (LLIS), run by your transmission service provider"},"unit":null,"definition":"the defined process by which a site-specific local capacity answer can be obtained where the operator publishes no capacity map. This is a route to evidence, NOT evidence of capacity, and does not satisfy the local deliverability gate.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"operator process documentation","coverage":"market-level process","model_uncertainty":"no capacity figure is implied","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"ERCOT large-load interconnection","title":"ERCOT large-load interconnection","url":"https://www.ercot.com/services/rq/integration","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"interconnection process","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"ERCOT publishes no substation-level capacity map for large load. Any facility of 75 MW or more must complete an LLIS before energizing, conducted on the applicant's behalf by the transmission service provider (Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Texas, TNMP and others). The site-specific answer therefore exists only after application, not before it. Oncor carries the largest concentration of new large load in the state.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:59f91a6ec4675241102541652b58ae69a4a88cf35c66fc0d1dfeac20a4a12abf"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ercot-central:regulatory_momentum:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ercot-central","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ercot-central"},"predicate":"regulatory_momentum","value":{"base":"favourable","direction":"stable"},"unit":null,"definition":"direction and steadiness of the rules governing large-load connection (stroke-of-pen risk)","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited dated developments","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"High"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"regulatory momentum","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The same open, energy-only connect-and-manage framework as ERCOT statewide, applied where the transmission is robust and the load pockets are well served. WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT: Restrictive new large-load interconnection rules following a major reliability event.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:e9806a11deab2b92c8edb7130533ddf1a909b13abf78719a68ce211dc91f1f35"}],"gaps":[{"predicate":"average_operational_carbon_intensity","requires":"average operational carbon intensity","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no grid snapshot compiled for this market yet","blocks_project_case":false},{"predicate":"local_deliverability","requires":"capacity at the substation you would connect to","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no operator publication of area or substation capacity found for this market","blocks_project_case":true}],"note":"A gap is not evidence that the risk is absent. It means we have not assessed it."}