{"market_id":"germany-south","generated_at":"June 2026","schema_version":"1.0","claim_count":9,"claims":[{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:germany-south:pgiq_tier:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"germany-south","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:germany-south"},"predicate":"pgiq_tier","value":{"base":4,"label":"Constrained"},"unit":null,"definition":"PGIQ tier for siting a large new electricity load; a directional screen, not a connection guarantee","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"n/a (opinion)","coverage":"all rated markets","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"Med-High"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"tier definitions","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The constrained half: the FLAP-D hub (Frankfurt) and Bavaria's industry sit on the importing side of a bottlenecked grid, having lost most of their nuclear in 2023. The highest demand meets the tightest supply, which is where the reliability overlay bites.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:d681a0a035cfc7854bed881cfc916bfd1ace29bb9b4cea1e5440e2a05007c889"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:germany-south:recurring_power_cost:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"germany-south","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:germany-south"},"predicate":"recurring_power_cost","value":{"low":108,"base":126,"high":158},"unit":"USD/MWh","definition":"recurring energy, network, delivery, taxes and levies per MWh; EXCLUDES customer-funded connection capital","project_archetype":"100mw_flat_95pct_lf_transmission_level","as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"triangulated","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"triangulated","coverage":"3 public fragments","model_uncertainty":"band spans structuring outcomes","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"EU industrial electricity prices (IEA Electricity 2026)","title":"EU industrial electricity prices (IEA Electricity 2026)","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026/prices","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"Non-household electricity prices (Eurostat)","title":"Non-household electricity prices (Eurostat)","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","title":"EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"price components","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":{"formula":"sum(components)","model_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","inputs":[{"component":"Wholesale energy","usd_per_mwh":88},{"component":"Network & grid fees","usd_per_mwh":28},{"component":"Taxes & levies (after industrial relief)","usd_per_mwh":10}]},"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The southern band sits above the north because it is further from wind generation and carries heavier network-constraint and redispatch costs.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:0df6d377d4839b0830c3f387e0f9263208d50c0ddcd7ca937458b92837307072"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:germany-south:connection_wait:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"germany-south","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:germany-south"},"predicate":"connection_wait","value":{"low":84,"base":102,"high":120},"unit":"months","definition":"from a complete application being accepted to full firm energization of the nominated MW, expressed as a band. Initial, phased, temporary and conditional energization are separate, earlier milestones. Derived from the operator process and market evidence rather than a measured project cohort.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"measured","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"Med-High","coverage":"band, not a measured cohort","model_uncertainty":"stage durations overlap and vary by project","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Global Data Center Hub: grid delays repricing Europe","title":"Global Data Center Hub: grid delays repricing Europe","url":"https://www.globaldatacenterhub.com/p/grid-interconnection-delays-repricing","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"process stages","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":{"formula":"sum(stage_durations)","model_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","inputs":[{"stage":"Application & queue position","months":6},{"stage":"Grid study & connection offer","months":18},{"stage":"Network reinforcement / transmission build","months":60},{"stage":"Construction & energization","months":18}]},"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Frankfurt's grid is fully allocated for years; new load is pushed to ex-coal corridors.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:9eb3437db2c12fac13beff8ef88508e162747e293a6132f4db1ea82473759c73"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:germany-south:scheduled_change:june-2026:1","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"germany-south","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:germany-south"},"predicate":"scheduled_change","value":{"base":"SuedLink HVDC link scheduled to complete","effective":"Around 2028","year":2028},"unit":null,"definition":"a dated, already-announced event that will affect a large load sited here. A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing Around 2028","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Global Data Center Hub: grid delays repricing Europe","title":"Global Data Center Hub: grid delays repricing Europe","url":"https://www.globaldatacenterhub.com/p/grid-interconnection-delays-repricing","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Relieves the north-south bottleneck feeding the industrial south, easing the severe Frankfurt-area access constraint.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:95e1ea04df7dc4ef4ff8cacfa11f88649646ac1732c370916add28a2fb697c93"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:germany-south:delivery_reliability_saidi:june-2026","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"germany-south","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:germany-south"},"predicate":"delivery_reliability_saidi","value":{"base":11.7},"unit":"minutes per customer per year","definition":"regulator outage measure (SAIDI or stated equivalent) for the distribution network;","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"measured","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"regulator filing","coverage":"year 2024","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Bundesnetzagentur SAIDI 2024","title":"Bundesnetzagentur SAIDI 2024","url":"https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/EN/2025/20251009_SAIDI_Strom.html","published_at":"2024","retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"reliability summary","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":null,"schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:59bce7a2bcc73f255e558bd9a1f53019110fcce29cdd3bb2fe962ae2d86d23a5"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:germany-south:forward_adequacy:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"germany-south","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:germany-south"},"predicate":"forward_adequacy","value":{"base":"elevated","label":"Tight"},"unit":null,"definition":"forward firm-supply adequacy for a prospective large new load; level vocabulary none|watch|elevated|severe","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"forward","method_source_label":"assessed","confidence":{"source_quality":"modelled read","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"not site-specific","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Germany SuedLink north-south line (Clean Energy Wire)","title":"Germany SuedLink north-south line (Clean Energy Wire)","url":"https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-starts-construction-north-south-power-line-pivotal-energy-transition","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The south lost most of its nuclear baseload in 2023 and depends on northern and imported power over a bottlenecked grid; the SuedLink HVDC fix is delayed to about 2028, leaving heavy redispatch. Firm-capacity risk for a new large load is concentrated here.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:7c7713b562980bb6d8e6a133a4bcc05cfd8fb419d103c22b5f5744df09a347fb"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:germany-south:average_operational_carbon_intensity:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"germany-south","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:germany-south"},"predicate":"average_operational_carbon_intensity","value":{"base":330},"unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","definition":"Estimated average operational grid emissions intensity in gCO2e per kWh, for a declared geography, period and system boundary, using direct operational emission factors. The generation-versus-consumption basis, imports, delivery losses, temporal granularity, factor set, factor vintage and uncertainty are disclosed or marked unknown. Permitted for location-based grid comparison only. It is not a marginal-emissions estimate, a lifecycle assessment, a procurement claim, or by itself a market-based Scope 2 result.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"modelled","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"stated generation mix","coverage":"market-level annual average","model_uncertainty":"average, not marginal or lifecycle","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"carbon basis","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Average operational intensity from the stated generation mix. Not marginal, lifecycle or market-based Scope 2.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:7a1e50b80bb0b902e8aebcb2d72703a827c70582c131019c7a89e941ce992bab"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:germany-south:local_deliverability:june-2026","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"germany-south","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:germany-south"},"predicate":"local_deliverability","value":{"base":"published_checkable","granularity":"substation, TenneT control zone only; the Amprion area around Frankfurt is not established here"},"unit":null,"definition":"whether capacity at the point of connection can be established from operator publications. State vocabulary: not_assessed | published_checkable | constrained | known. published_checkable means the operator publishes checkable capacity, NOT that we have checked the bus for a specific project.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"operator publication","coverage":"substation, TenneT control zone only; the Amprion area around Frankfurt is not established here","model_uncertainty":"not site-specific until the named substation is checked","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Grid capacity map, TenneT","title":"Grid capacity map, TenneT","url":"https://www.tennet.eu/nl-en/grid-capacity-map","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"capacity map","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"TenneT publishes a control-zone map of currently identified locations for possible new connections, with an indicative substation, an estimated in-service date, and notes on local limitations. That covers the Munich side of this market. Frankfurt sits in the Amprion control zone, for which we have not established an equivalent publication, so coverage here is partial and stated as such. The same national maturity test (Reifegradverfahren) applies from 1 April 2026. HOW TO CHECK: Check the TenneT connection-location map and its in-service dates for the candidate site. For a Frankfurt-area site, approach Amprion directly: no equivalent published position is established in our evidence.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:7b8a4b43412dd63c3d7fe0076056e11d4cc060a1d696df0b7fd290d19466a7d1"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:germany-south:regulatory_momentum:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"germany-south","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:germany-south"},"predicate":"regulatory_momentum","value":{"base":"adverse","direction":"improving"},"unit":null,"definition":"direction and steadiness of the rules governing large-load connection (stroke-of-pen risk)","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited dated developments","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"Med-High"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"regulatory momentum","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Frankfurt's transmission is fully allocated for years and new load is pushed to ex-coal corridors, but the SuedLink link (around 2028) and grid reform are underway. WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT: SuedLink completing and the southern grid de-bottlenecking so core-hub access reopens.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:6a9f27ffe523a47e15eef00295b70231d15f6633b1913b042203e82c3f5e09dc"}],"gaps":[],"note":"A gap is not evidence that the risk is absent. It means we have not assessed it."}