{"market_id":"ireland","generated_at":"June 2026","schema_version":"1.0","claim_count":10,"claims":[{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ireland:pgiq_tier:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ireland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ireland"},"predicate":"pgiq_tier","value":{"base":5,"label":"Largely closed"},"unit":null,"definition":"PGIQ tier for siting a large new electricity load; a directional screen, not a connection guarantee","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"n/a (opinion)","coverage":"all rated markets","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"High"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"tier definitions","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Grid-only connection is effectively closed around Dublin; viable only with full on-site generation. The clearest hard gate in the set. The outlook is positive only because the 2025 policy reset opened a narrow, self-supply-conditioned path.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:b1d442075be27b20972785756ac335a27f7d9812c41042e06db8c59cb4b11437"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ireland:recurring_power_cost:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ireland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ireland"},"predicate":"recurring_power_cost","value":{"low":130,"base":150,"high":180},"unit":"USD/MWh","definition":"recurring energy, network, delivery, taxes and levies per MWh; EXCLUDES customer-funded connection capital","project_archetype":"100mw_flat_95pct_lf_transmission_level","as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"modelled","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"modelled","coverage":"2 public fragments","model_uncertainty":"band spans structuring outcomes","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Non-household electricity prices, Ireland highest (Eurostat)","title":"Non-household electricity prices, Ireland highest (Eurostat)","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"Data centres 22% of demand (CSO Ireland)","title":"Data centres 22% of demand (CSO Ireland)","url":"https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-dcmec/datacentresmeteredelectricityconsumption2024/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","title":"EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"price components","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":{"formula":"sum(components)","model_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","inputs":[{"component":"Wholesale energy","usd_per_mwh":88},{"component":"Network & constraint charges","usd_per_mwh":45},{"component":"Taxes & levies","usd_per_mwh":17}]},"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Ireland has the most expensive large-load band in the coverage: the highest non-household energy prices in the EU, plus heavy network and constraint costs on a small, tight system.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:49d451ae656dd3aab79801874d18fba74ec1f0af2b447555c56c5052350b1ff7"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ireland:generation_storage_queue_depth:june-2026","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ireland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ireland"},"predicate":"generation_storage_queue_depth","value":{"base":5},"unit":"GW","definition":"capacity in the generation and storage queue, population \"active\"","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"measured","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"Med","coverage":"operator-published total","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"EirGrid ECP-2.5 assumptions","title":"EirGrid ECP-2.5 assumptions","url":"https://cms.eirgrid.ie/sites/default/files/publications/ECP-2.5%20Assumptions%20Document.pdf","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"CRU generation connections policy (ECP-GSS)","title":"CRU generation connections policy (ECP-GSS)","url":"https://www.cru.ie/about-us/news/cru-publishes-generation-connections-policy/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry","title":"CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry","url":"https://www.williamfry.com/knowledge/cru-publishes-long-awaited-final-policy-on-data-centre-connections/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Ireland processes connections in batches rather than an open queue; the ECP-2.5 and 2.5.1 batch totalled 5.4 GW of generation (EirGrid, 2024 batch, figure aging). The successor ECP-GSS policy now runs two batches a year from 2026; ECP-GSS-2 (March 2026) results are published and the next batch closes September 30, 2026. The December 2025 Large Energy Users Connection Policy ended the blanket Dublin data-centre moratorium. Wait and withdrawal are modelled; EirGrid publishes no attrition series.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:ea71a711574279d5e3a379cf29491918fb51baa52a0a9617da014bb613d95d30"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ireland:connection_wait:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ireland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ireland"},"predicate":"connection_wait","value":{"base":48},"unit":"months","definition":"complete_application_accepted_to_full_firm_energization","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"measured","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"Med","coverage":"typical case, not a quote","model_uncertainty":"stage durations overlap in practice","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"EirGrid ECP process","title":"EirGrid ECP process","url":"https://cms.eirgrid.ie/sites/default/files/publications/ECP-2.5%20Assumptions%20Document.pdf","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"process stages","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"EirGrid ECP-2.5 assumptions","title":"EirGrid ECP-2.5 assumptions","url":"https://cms.eirgrid.ie/sites/default/files/publications/ECP-2.5%20Assumptions%20Document.pdf","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"CRU generation connections policy (ECP-GSS)","title":"CRU generation connections policy (ECP-GSS)","url":"https://www.cru.ie/about-us/news/cru-publishes-generation-connections-policy/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry","title":"CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry","url":"https://www.williamfry.com/knowledge/cru-publishes-long-awaited-final-policy-on-data-centre-connections/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":{"formula":"sum(stage_durations)","model_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","inputs":[{"stage":"Batch application & study","months":12},{"stage":"Connection offer & acceptance","months":6},{"stage":"Agreement & works","months":12},{"stage":"Construction & energization","months":18}]},"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":null,"schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:ebb6c49cef2072910a18dd6743ba63cecef5d0d1c05f8a5a68f9f6540ea764f7"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ireland:queue_withdrawal_rate:june-2026","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ireland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ireland"},"predicate":"queue_withdrawal_rate","value":{"base":30},"unit":"percent","definition":"share of capacity that left the generation and storage queue before connecting; this is NOT a load withdrawal rate unless queue_type is load","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"measured","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"Med","coverage":"cohort-based","model_uncertainty":"cohort definition varies","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"EirGrid ECP-2.5 assumptions","title":"EirGrid ECP-2.5 assumptions","url":"https://cms.eirgrid.ie/sites/default/files/publications/ECP-2.5%20Assumptions%20Document.pdf","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"CRU generation connections policy (ECP-GSS)","title":"CRU generation connections policy (ECP-GSS)","url":"https://www.cru.ie/about-us/news/cru-publishes-generation-connections-policy/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry","title":"CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry","url":"https://www.williamfry.com/knowledge/cru-publishes-long-awaited-final-policy-on-data-centre-connections/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":null,"schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:4974cc99698f35c914ca5dd2a5bdc951745e9dccca49cbe1ba74445c4f135469"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ireland:scheduled_change:june-2026:1","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ireland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ireland"},"predicate":"scheduled_change","value":{"base":"EirGrid assesses conditional self-supply connections under the new Large Energy Users policy","effective":"2026","year":2026},"unit":null,"definition":"a dated, already-announced event that will affect a large load sited here. A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing 2026","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry","title":"CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry","url":"https://www.williamfry.com/knowledge/cru-publishes-long-awaited-final-policy-on-data-centre-connections/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Determines whether grid access genuinely reopens in the constrained east, or stays effectively closed.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:4d2b7ba69ce188f4769f68e1c91e777780925c40686d009ad2d34fee7b8f87af"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ireland:forward_adequacy:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ireland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ireland"},"predicate":"forward_adequacy","value":{"base":"elevated","label":"Tight"},"unit":null,"definition":"forward firm-supply adequacy for a prospective large new load; level vocabulary none|watch|elevated|severe","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"historical","method_source_label":"event-based","confidence":{"source_quality":"modelled read","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"not site-specific","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"EirGrid winter adequacy outlook","title":"EirGrid winter adequacy outlook","url":"https://www.eirgrid.ie/news/new-eirgrid-forecast-shows-low-potential-system-alerts-winter-due-insufficient-generation","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Tight adequacy: EirGrid warns of possible Amber system alerts at low-wind, low-import evening peaks, and the system leans on temporary emergency generation plus protocols under which large users (mostly data centres) cut demand by up to 75% in an emergency. Data-center demand is the core driver, which is why grid-only connection around Dublin is gated.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:ab3c53c7d7069976a598acd8e98651fde9a4d6899175c22fbc06a79824190c5c"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ireland:average_operational_carbon_intensity:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ireland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ireland"},"predicate":"average_operational_carbon_intensity","value":{"base":270},"unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","definition":"Estimated average operational grid emissions intensity in gCO2e per kWh, for a declared geography, period and system boundary, using direct operational emission factors. The generation-versus-consumption basis, imports, delivery losses, temporal granularity, factor set, factor vintage and uncertainty are disclosed or marked unknown. Permitted for location-based grid comparison only. It is not a marginal-emissions estimate, a lifecycle assessment, a procurement claim, or by itself a market-based Scope 2 result.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"modelled","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"stated generation mix","coverage":"market-level annual average","model_uncertainty":"average, not marginal or lifecycle","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"carbon basis","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Average operational intensity from the stated generation mix. Not marginal, lifecycle or market-based Scope 2.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:cf06ae0a65db6d080d5de6c209cace2b7e68669155e228fb9e428c5018f71174"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ireland:local_deliverability:june-2026","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ireland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ireland"},"predicate":"local_deliverability","value":{"base":"published_checkable","granularity":"27 distribution planning zones, plus a published transmission constrained-area overview for data centres"},"unit":null,"definition":"whether capacity at the point of connection can be established from operator publications. State vocabulary: not_assessed | published_checkable | constrained | known. published_checkable means the operator publishes checkable capacity, NOT that we have checked the bus for a specific project.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"operator publication","coverage":"27 distribution planning zones, plus a published transmission constrained-area overview for data centres","model_uncertainty":"not site-specific until the named substation is checked","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Get connected, ESB Networks","title":"Get connected, ESB Networks","url":"https://www.esbnetworks.ie/services/get-connected","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"capacity map","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Every data-centre connection application receives a locational assessment against 27 distribution planning zones, so whether a site sits in a constrained area is a determinable question rather than an open one. EirGrid published a data-centre constrained-area overview in May 2026, with fuller heat maps expected alongside the 2027 Ten Year Transmission Forecast Statement. Dublin remains the constrained core: data centres account for roughly half of regional demand. The December 2025 Large Energy Users policy replaced the blanket Dublin moratorium with this locational test. HOW TO CHECK: Identify the distribution planning zone for the candidate site and read the constrained-area overview before applying. Do NOT use ESB Networks' network capacity heatmap as load evidence: it sits in the renewable connection pathway and reports capacity for generation.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:f6b3cd3705f3b42190c6b576a71fbcc1a98c7b7e7af6dc2fa381d7dcc4d28824"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ireland:regulatory_momentum:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ireland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ireland"},"predicate":"regulatory_momentum","value":{"base":"adverse","direction":"improving"},"unit":null,"definition":"direction and steadiness of the rules governing large-load connection (stroke-of-pen risk)","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited dated developments","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"High"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"regulatory momentum","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The Dublin data-centre connection moratorium was lifted in December 2025, but only for projects that self-generate or store their full demand; grid-only connection stays effectively closed in the east. WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT: EirGrid confirming that conditional connections genuinely reopen grid access for large loads, not just self-supply.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:7cb98ce16ed2e5fe513d18eae8ed077c4739e9fc6571a7e1c1abfbd0f43c3119"}],"gaps":[{"predicate":"delivery_reliability_saidi","requires":"measured regulator outage record","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no regulator outage series compiled for this market yet","blocks_project_case":true}],"note":"A gap is not evidence that the risk is absent. It means we have not assessed it."}