{"market_id":"newfoundland","generated_at":"June 2026","schema_version":"1.0","claim_count":8,"claims":[{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:newfoundland:pgiq_tier:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"newfoundland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:newfoundland"},"predicate":"pgiq_tier","value":{"base":3,"label":"Workable"},"unit":null,"definition":"PGIQ tier for siting a large new electricity load; a directional screen, not a connection guarantee","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"n/a (opinion)","coverage":"all rated markets","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"Med"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"tier definitions","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The headline hydro surplus is misleading: Churchill Falls output is largely contracted and exported, the island grid is separate and remote, and Muskrat Falls has been troubled. Deliverable power for a new island load is limited despite the paper surplus.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:c6c0996bdb57c57270dc23b44270c46b6114118e52a57754d9687bfc9a410a88"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:newfoundland:scheduled_change:june-2026:1","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"newfoundland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:newfoundland"},"predicate":"scheduled_change","value":{"base":"Definitive binding agreements on Churchill Falls and Gull Island targeted","effective":"End 2026","year":2026},"unit":null,"definition":"a dated, already-announced event that will affect a large load sited here. A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing End 2026","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"VOCM","title":"VOCM","url":"https://vocm.com/2026/08/17/cf-deal-draft/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The 17 Aug 2026 agreement is non-binding. Execution is what triggers the Major Projects Office referral, the federal loan guarantee for Gull Island and the provincial electricity rebate.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:2048950835a50dd33ce1191cd9b1a88d2222baf19acb2fee65376b92253c2e23"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:newfoundland:scheduled_change:june-2026:2","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"newfoundland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:newfoundland"},"predicate":"scheduled_change","value":{"base":"Quebec general election, a live risk to the counterparty's position","effective":"By Oct 2026","year":2026},"unit":null,"definition":"a dated, already-announced event that will affect a large load sited here. A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing By Oct 2026","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"VOCM","title":"VOCM","url":"https://vocm.com/2026/08/18/307309/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The Parti Quebecois has said it would scrap the agreement. A change of government in Quebec before binding agreements are signed is the single largest execution risk to the deal.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:62211faed0a8bb46ecff4fa78c75bff2f8eb45f5455a13d5f5cbd4466536a51b"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:newfoundland:scheduled_change:june-2026:3","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"newfoundland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:newfoundland"},"predicate":"scheduled_change","value":{"base":"$1 billion federal commitment to a Labrador West transmission line","effective":"On binding agreements","year":null},"unit":null,"definition":"a dated, already-announced event that will affect a large load sited here. A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing On binding agreements","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Government of Newfoundland and Labrador","title":"Government of Newfoundland and Labrador","url":"https://www.gov.nl.ca/releases/2026/exec/0817n01/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Stated as necessary to open new mining and industrial projects in the Labrador Trough. This, not Gull Island, is the near-term item that would change what a large load can actually connect to in Labrador.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:57d383e5c2fda84804cabb68a6eddc911da6252e80b4faf6932b2b5a950a6e78"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:newfoundland:scheduled_change:june-2026:4","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"newfoundland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:newfoundland"},"predicate":"scheduled_change","value":{"base":"Gull Island and associated build, on Ottawa's own GDP timeline","effective":"Through the early 2040s","year":2040},"unit":null,"definition":"a dated, already-announced event that will affect a large load sited here. A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing Through the early 2040s","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Prime Minister of Canada","title":"Prime Minister of Canada","url":"https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/08/17/prime-minister-carney-announces-largest-clean-energy-investment-north","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The 14,000 MW figure is a multi-decade construction programme, not near-term supply. A load siting in the next few years should price the existing system, not the announcement.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:5f4cd00521869eeb63580553d9e1b5a13ef1be7ef7a9d840b4b3d48ff5700df7"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:newfoundland:scheduled_change:june-2026:5","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"newfoundland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:newfoundland"},"predicate":"scheduled_change","value":{"base":"CFX feasibility study on expanding the Churchill Falls plant","effective":"No date set","year":null},"unit":null,"definition":"a dated, already-announced event that will affect a large load sited here. A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing No date set","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"VOCM","title":"VOCM","url":"https://vocm.com/2026/08/17/cf-deal-draft/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The expansion was removed from the agreement and has no commercial arrangements; treat it as optionality, not capacity.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:96ad2367ff172d463209da3b167515b77cccffe8c782bd9a07db4b8a3844b7b4"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:newfoundland:forward_adequacy:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"newfoundland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:newfoundland"},"predicate":"forward_adequacy","value":{"base":"watch","label":"Adequacy flagged"},"unit":null,"definition":"forward firm-supply adequacy for a prospective large new load; level vocabulary none|watch|elevated|severe","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"modelled","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"modelled read","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"not site-specific","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"reliability overlay","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Modelled read: hydro-heavy but small and isolated, with a Muskrat Falls commissioning history.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:496b545f888fe083eb1bde69e6db1f06e5dfea20860f7e576de6deae7763eb3b"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:newfoundland:average_operational_carbon_intensity:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"newfoundland","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:newfoundland"},"predicate":"average_operational_carbon_intensity","value":{"base":8},"unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","definition":"Estimated average operational grid emissions intensity in gCO2e per kWh, for a declared geography, period and system boundary, using direct operational emission factors. The generation-versus-consumption basis, imports, delivery losses, temporal granularity, factor set, factor vintage and uncertainty are disclosed or marked unknown. Permitted for location-based grid comparison only. It is not a marginal-emissions estimate, a lifecycle assessment, a procurement claim, or by itself a market-based Scope 2 result.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"modelled","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"stated generation mix","coverage":"market-level annual average","model_uncertainty":"average, not marginal or lifecycle","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"carbon basis","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Average operational intensity from the stated generation mix. Not marginal, lifecycle or market-based Scope 2.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:c8f0fcbdd9a7aac35eb235e256410a21bb745bd5a7accc581fb68fe976832149"}],"gaps":[{"predicate":"recurring_power_cost","requires":"recurring cost for the declared archetype","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no compiled cost band for this market yet (check administered_large_user_tariff: where a regulated tariff exists it is the price actually paid)","blocks_project_case":true},{"predicate":"connection_wait","requires":"time from a complete application being accepted to full firm energization of the nominated MW; initial, phased, temporary and conditional energization are separate milestones","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no countable queue or operator-published process for this market","blocks_project_case":true},{"predicate":"delivery_reliability_saidi","requires":"measured regulator outage record","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no regulator outage series compiled for this market yet","blocks_project_case":true},{"predicate":"regulatory_momentum","requires":"direction and steadiness of connection rules","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no dated regulatory read compiled for this market yet","blocks_project_case":false},{"predicate":"local_deliverability","requires":"capacity at the substation you would connect to","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no operator publication of area or substation capacity found for this market","blocks_project_case":true}],"note":"A gap is not evidence that the risk is absent. It means we have not assessed it."}