{"market_id":"ontario","generated_at":"June 2026","schema_version":"1.0","claim_count":8,"claims":[{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ontario:pgiq_tier:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ontario","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ontario"},"predicate":"pgiq_tier","value":{"base":2,"label":"Strong"},"unit":null,"definition":"PGIQ tier for siting a large new electricity load; a directional screen, not a connection guarantee","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"n/a (opinion)","coverage":"all rated markets","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"High"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"tier definitions","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"A cheap, clean nuclear-and-hydro base, but availability is tightening through the nuclear-refurbishment cycle and Bill 40 introduces managed, economic-benefit-prioritized connections for large data centers. 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A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing Mid-2030s","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"CNSC approves Pickering to end-2026 (NucNet)","title":"CNSC approves Pickering to end-2026 (NucNet)","url":"https://www.nucnet.org/news/regulator-approves-pickering-operation-to-end-of-2026-as-refurbishment-plans-advance-10-2-2024","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Restores firm baseload supply; an upgrade trigger if it lands on schedule.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:a4c2fc7165904b760d8af231064edacdf615bae2e6442d16ca3e8184e7817da8"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ontario:forward_adequacy:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ontario","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ontario"},"predicate":"forward_adequacy","value":{"base":"elevated","label":"Tight"},"unit":null,"definition":"forward firm-supply adequacy for a prospective large new load; level vocabulary none|watch|elevated|severe","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"forward","method_source_label":"assessed","confidence":{"source_quality":"modelled read","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"not site-specific","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"CNSC approves Pickering to end-2026 (NucNet)","title":"CNSC approves Pickering to end-2026 (NucNet)","url":"https://www.nucnet.org/news/regulator-approves-pickering-operation-to-end-of-2026-as-refurbishment-plans-advance-10-2-2024","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"Pickering-4 permanently shut (NucNet)","title":"Pickering-4 permanently shut (NucNet)","url":"https://www.nucnet.org/news/pickering-4-nuclear-plant-in-ontario-permanently-shut-down-1-5-2025","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Large firm baseload leaving as demand climbs: Pickering Units 5-8 (about 2,000 MW) go offline in September 2026 for refurbishment into the mid-2030s, and Unit 4 was permanently retired in 2025. IESO planning shows needs emerging as data-center demand rises. Steps down if replacement firm capacity clears procurement.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:075f626b834241f49bc458ddb5d1d99984c6050e9e1fbad629860f2741e9e71d"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ontario:average_operational_carbon_intensity:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ontario","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ontario"},"predicate":"average_operational_carbon_intensity","value":{"base":37},"unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","definition":"Estimated average operational grid emissions intensity in gCO2e per kWh, for a declared geography, period and system boundary, using direct operational emission factors. The generation-versus-consumption basis, imports, delivery losses, temporal granularity, factor set, factor vintage and uncertainty are disclosed or marked unknown. Permitted for location-based grid comparison only. 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Not marginal, lifecycle or market-based Scope 2.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:daad95e4d8ebb1b112d1d66b88895ba156e2961f01d602ad8d141ede75c595b7"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:ontario:regulatory_momentum:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"ontario","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:ontario"},"predicate":"regulatory_momentum","value":{"base":"mixed","direction":"worsening"},"unit":null,"definition":"direction and steadiness of the rules governing large-load connection (stroke-of-pen risk)","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited dated developments","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"High"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"regulatory momentum","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Bill 40 lets the Minister prioritize and approve large data-centre connections by economic benefit, so access is becoming managed and selective rather than open. WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT: A clear, open large-load connection pathway rather than case-by-case selection.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:998c34b07c798105322dd540d42f1fbb8c1fc1c922e1114b0833892f5737e20e"}],"gaps":[{"predicate":"delivery_reliability_saidi","requires":"measured regulator outage record","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no regulator outage series compiled for this market yet","blocks_project_case":true},{"predicate":"local_deliverability","requires":"capacity at the substation you would connect to","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no operator publication of area or substation capacity found for this market","blocks_project_case":true}],"note":"A gap is not evidence that the risk is absent. It means we have not assessed it."}