{"market_id":"quebec","generated_at":"June 2026","schema_version":"1.0","claim_count":9,"claims":[{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:quebec:pgiq_tier:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"quebec","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:quebec"},"predicate":"pgiq_tier","value":{"base":2,"label":"Strong"},"unit":null,"definition":"PGIQ tier for siting a large new electricity load; a directional screen, not a connection guarantee","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"n/a (opinion)","coverage":"all rated markets","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"Med-High"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"tier definitions","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"World-class cheap, clean, abundant hydro. The catch is access: new loads above 5 MW need ministerial sign-off under Bill 69, and a proposed data-centre tariff near 13 cents per kWh lifts the price. Approved projects still connect, so this is a managed gate, not a closed door.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:ab50ee29ed72e0d75be9b553c864189aae90ac82ad1d4ac3325724f43d3804f8"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:quebec:recurring_power_cost:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"quebec","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:quebec"},"predicate":"recurring_power_cost","value":{"low":55,"base":85,"high":115},"unit":"USD/MWh","definition":"recurring energy, network, delivery, taxes and levies per MWh; EXCLUDES customer-funded connection capital","project_archetype":"100mw_flat_95pct_lf_transmission_level","as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"triangulated","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"triangulated","coverage":"3 public fragments","model_uncertainty":"band spans structuring outcomes","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Hydro-Quebec Rate L (large-power industrial)","title":"Hydro-Quebec Rate L (large-power industrial)","url":"https://www.hydroquebec.com/business/customer-space/rates/rate-l-industrial-rate-large-power-customers.html","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"Hydro-Quebec proposed data-centre rate (CBC)","title":"Hydro-Quebec proposed data-centre rate (CBC)","url":"https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/hydro-quebec-rates-data-centres-9.7099056","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"page","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"},{"publisher":"Hydro-Quebec proposed data-centre rate (CBC)","title":"Hydro-Quebec proposed data-centre rate (CBC)","url":"https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/hydro-quebec-rates-data-centres-9.7099056","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"price components","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The band runs from legacy sites near Rate L up to new data centers at the proposed dedicated rate, which is why it is wide.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:6163da2d345ab3c419621c3e1c52970da0536d9eed5a963020ee2e6034cb7264"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:quebec:connection_wait:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"quebec","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:quebec"},"predicate":"connection_wait","value":{"low":48,"base":60,"high":72},"unit":"months","definition":"from a complete application being accepted to full firm energization of the nominated MW, expressed as a band. Initial, phased, temporary and conditional energization are separate, earlier milestones. Derived from the operator process and market evidence rather than a measured project cohort.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"modelled","method_source_label":"proxy","confidence":{"source_quality":"Med","coverage":"band, not a measured cohort","model_uncertainty":"stage durations overlap and vary by project","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Osler: Canada grid connection policies","title":"Osler: Canada grid connection policies","url":"https://www.osler.com/en/insights/reports/2025-legal-outlook/powering-ai-canadas-evolving-electricity-grid-connection-policies/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"process stages","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":{"formula":"sum(stage_durations)","model_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","inputs":[{"stage":"Ministerial authorization","months":12},{"stage":"Grid study & connection offer","months":12},{"stage":"Network reinforcement","months":24},{"stage":"Construction & energization","months":12}]},"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Cheap hydro, but new large loads are authorization-gated: the Minister must approve any connection of 5 MW or more.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:3d97d6a4e7f31fa279bc510678f4a0a6015349197944e2c8bde80d7bba09ed7a"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:quebec:scheduled_change:june-2026:1","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"quebec","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:quebec"},"predicate":"scheduled_change","value":{"base":"Regie de l'energie ruling on Hydro-Quebec's dedicated data-centre tariff","effective":"H2 2026","year":2026},"unit":null,"definition":"a dated, already-announced event that will affect a large load sited here. A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing H2 2026","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"Hydro-Quebec / CBC","title":"Hydro-Quebec / CBC","url":"https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/hydro-quebec-rates-data-centres-9.7099056","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Would set the roughly 13 cents CAD per kWh rate a new data center pays, versus the legacy industrial rate.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:2a4eb88e59b0d58e9e0c5633f9e40c5941a6e0f82d57854909a8c1a8d6fb7996"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:quebec:scheduled_change:june-2026:2","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"quebec","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:quebec"},"predicate":"scheduled_change","value":{"base":"Quebec general election, with the Churchill Falls agreement still non-binding","effective":"By Oct 2026","year":2026},"unit":null,"definition":"a dated, already-announced event that will affect a large load sited here. A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing By Oct 2026","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"VOCM","title":"VOCM","url":"https://vocm.com/2026/08/18/307309/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"The Parti Quebecois has said it would scrap the deal; Premier Frechette has publicly cautioned against it, arguing there is no alternative source for the megawatts involved. The first real test of whether the 17 Aug announcement becomes a commitment.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:580322f1c168a8a91a8a3bb5763ccb0c73de5fea6e8f036bc13038efc12c3fd3"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:quebec:scheduled_change:june-2026:3","claim_type":"fact","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"quebec","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:quebec"},"predicate":"scheduled_change","value":{"base":"Definitive binding agreements on Churchill Falls and Gull Island targeted","effective":"End 2026","year":2026},"unit":null,"definition":"a dated, already-announced event that will affect a large load sited here. A published fact with a source, not our forecast.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"reported","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited announcement","coverage":"stated timing End 2026","model_uncertainty":"announced timing can slip","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"VOCM","title":"VOCM","url":"https://vocm.com/2026/08/17/cf-deal-draft/","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"announcement","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Until they are executed nothing is contractually settled, and the federal Major Projects Office referral does not take effect.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:5912c618e41c5bf1facfe8197a39038895741172847ccecae476c8eb7960c9b1"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:quebec:forward_adequacy:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"quebec","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:quebec"},"predicate":"forward_adequacy","value":{"base":"none","label":"No adequacy flags"},"unit":null,"definition":"forward firm-supply adequacy for a prospective large new load; level vocabulary none|watch|elevated|severe","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"modelled","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"modelled read","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"not site-specific","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"reliability overlay","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":null,"schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:8e38e8d0b7c6352415111adb75c182a9b609cbfbab48f4d2b9a0fbfc86c9d79d"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:quebec:average_operational_carbon_intensity:june-2026","claim_type":"estimate","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"quebec","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:quebec"},"predicate":"average_operational_carbon_intensity","value":{"base":5},"unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","definition":"Estimated average operational grid emissions intensity in gCO2e per kWh, for a declared geography, period and system boundary, using direct operational emission factors. The generation-versus-consumption basis, imports, delivery losses, temporal granularity, factor set, factor vintage and uncertainty are disclosed or marked unknown. Permitted for location-based grid comparison only. It is not a marginal-emissions estimate, a lifecycle assessment, a procurement claim, or by itself a market-based Scope 2 result.","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"modelled","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"stated generation mix","coverage":"market-level annual average","model_uncertainty":"average, not marginal or lifecycle","opinion_confidence":"n/a"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"carbon basis","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Average operational intensity from the stated generation mix. Not marginal, lifecycle or market-based Scope 2.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:0fcc1bbc3831f4b534b86d79ca252b3d11d24b94ed8b7679d80b43b1f21d388f"},{"claim_id":"pgiq:claim:quebec:regulatory_momentum:june-2026","claim_type":"opinion","status":"active","subject":{"market_id":"quebec","geography_id":"pgiq:geo:quebec"},"predicate":"regulatory_momentum","value":{"base":"mixed","direction":"stable"},"unit":null,"definition":"direction and steadiness of the rules governing large-load connection (stroke-of-pen risk)","project_archetype":null,"as_of":"June 2026","valid_for":{"start":"June 2026","end":null},"method":"expert_judgment","method_source_label":null,"confidence":{"source_quality":"cited dated developments","coverage":"market-level","model_uncertainty":"n/a","opinion_confidence":"Med-High"},"sources":[{"publisher":"PGIQ methodology","title":"PGIQ methodology","url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology","published_at":null,"retrieved_at":"June 2026","locator":"regulatory momentum","quote_or_field":null,"license":"public source, cited under fair use","redistribution_rights":"link and quote with attribution; no bulk redistribution"}],"transform":null,"contradictions":[],"supersedes":null,"note":"Hydro-Quebec's proposed dedicated data-centre tariff roughly doubles the industrial rate and is pending the Regie de l'energie; managed pricing inside an otherwise open, low-cost system. WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT: The Regie approving a workable dedicated rate with a clear, predictable allocation process.","schema_version":"1.0","methodology_version":"pgiq-rating-v2","definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","content_hash":"sha256:74ec67054fac1f27190dd703ffebc429e78cf1b1a89d71528c2dec1867712b2d"}],"gaps":[{"predicate":"delivery_reliability_saidi","requires":"measured regulator outage record","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no regulator outage series compiled for this market yet","blocks_project_case":true},{"predicate":"local_deliverability","requires":"capacity at the substation you would connect to","state":"not_assessed","reason":"no operator publication of area or substation capacity found for this market","blocks_project_case":true}],"note":"A gap is not evidence that the risk is absent. It means we have not assessed it."}