{"id":"alberta","rid":"AB","name":"Alberta","flag":"🇨🇦","group":"canada","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":2,"tier_name":"Strong","score":59,"pillar_score":66,"pillar_tier":2,"pillar_tier_name":"Strong","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"elevated","dock":7,"provisional":false,"confidence":"High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"elevated","measure":"event-based","note":"Tight supply repeatedly pushed the system to the edge in 2024: AESO declared an EEA3 grid emergency on Jan 13, 2024 with a public alert warning of imminent rotating outages, and issued a second grid alert in April 2024 that led to brief rotating outages in the Edmonton area.","sources":[{"label":"Alberta Jan/Apr 2024 event report (MSA)","url":"https://www.albertamsa.ca/assets/Documents/January-and-April-2024-Event-Report.pdf"},{"label":"AESO April 2024 grid alert (Global News)","url":"https://globalnews.ca/news/10405013/alberta-electric-system-grid-alert-april/"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"Recent grid alerts reflect thin reserve margins during extreme cold and low imports; market and build response is underway."},"read":"Reliability flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":7,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"mixed","direction":"improving","why":"The interim AESO large-load connection cap is fully subscribed, but a durable Phase 2 framework is expected as the province writes its data-centre rules.","what_would_change_it":"AESO finalising an open, durable Phase 2 large-load connection framework.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0","beyond_the_grid":{"text":"Indigenous consultation and water are live legal risks: Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation is seeking judicial review of Alberta's Water Act licence for the proposed roughly 70 billion dollar Wonder Valley AI campus on drought-stricken Treaty 8 land, saying it received no notice or consultation.","sources":[{"label":"CBC","url":"https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/sturgeon-lake-cree-nation-alberta-wonder-valley-9.7228016"},{"label":"Global News","url":"https://globalnews.ca/news/11895544/wonder-valley-sturgeon-lake-cree-nation-court/"}]},"for_new_supply":"Abundant gas and a pro-build posture favor new generation; the binding constraint is the interim AESO large-load cap, not supply build."},"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"2026","event":"AESO durable Phase 2 large-load connection framework expected","why":"Replaces the interim cap (now fully subscribed); shapes whether new large loads can connect at scale.","source":{"label":"AESO","url":"https://www.aeso.ca/"}}],"queue":null,"friction":{"level":"Severe","wait":"5-8 years (queue capped)","measure":"measured","has_detail":true},"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"triangulated","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":60,"mid_usd_per_mwh":80,"high_usd_per_mwh":110,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"triangulated","public_fragments":2,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes","cost_components":[{"name":"Wholesale pool energy","usd_per_mwh":55,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"Alberta electricity rates (Utilities Consumer Advocate)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://www.ucahelps.alberta.ca/rates.aspx","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["energy"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Transmission & distribution","usd_per_mwh":22,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"Alberta electricity rates (Utilities Consumer Advocate)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://www.ucahelps.alberta.ca/rates.aspx","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories, covering transmission, distribution in one line","confidence":"bundled_allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned, and covering more than one cost category in a single line. Neither the total nor the split within it was separately observed.","covers_categories":["transmission","distribution"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Riders & other","usd_per_mwh":3,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"Alberta electricity rates (Utilities Consumer Advocate)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://www.ucahelps.alberta.ca/rates.aspx","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["riders"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"}],"component_status":{"arithmetic_integrity":true,"evidence_reconciliation":"not_independently_reconciled","independently_sourced_lines":0,"total_lines":3,"bundled":[],"text":"The delivered-cost band is the compiled result. The component lines are an estimated allocation of its midpoint, not separately observed figures.","provenance_summary":{"by_state":{"estimated_allocation":3},"usd_by_state":{"estimated_allocation":80},"evidenced_share_pct":0,"lines_awaiting_evidence":["Wholesale pool energy","Transmission & distribution","Riders & other"],"what_would_close_them":"A separately sourced or tariff-derived figure for each category, with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not these lines.","version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"category_coverage":{"energy":{"status":"estimated","line":"Wholesale pool energy","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced wholesale or tariff energy figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"capacity":{"status":"not_applicable","reason":"Energy-only market: no capacity construct to price."},"transmission":{"status":"bundled","line":"Transmission & distribution","combined_with":["distribution"],"line_is_sourced":false,"line_provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","source":null,"source_url":null,"effective":null,"formula":null,"missing_evidence":"A separate transmission figure, or a sourced apportionment of the Transmission & distribution line."},"distribution":{"status":"bundled","line":"Transmission & distribution","combined_with":["transmission"],"line_is_sourced":false,"line_provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","source":null,"source_url":null,"effective":null,"formula":null,"missing_evidence":"A separate distribution figure, or a sourced apportionment of the Transmission & distribution line."},"demand_charges":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No demand charges figure is held for this market."},"ancillary":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No ancillary services and uplift figure is held for this market."},"riders":{"status":"estimated","line":"Riders & other","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced riders and unavoidable regulatory charges figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"carbon":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No carbon-related charges figure is held for this market."},"taxes":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No recurring taxes figure is held for this market."},"connection_capital":{"status":"not_applicable","reason":"Outside the recurring $/MWh boundary by definition."}},"category_vocabulary_version":"cost-categories-1.0","capacity_cross_check":null,"method_version":"cost-components-1.0"},"component_source":["Alberta electricity rates (Utilities Consumer Advocate)","https://www.ucahelps.alberta.ca/rates.aspx"]},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":{"publisher":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","publication":"National Inventory Report 1990-2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada","table":"A7-10","jurisdiction":"Alberta","year":"2024","preliminary":true,"unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","boundary":"operational_combustion","boundary_label":"generation_intensity","boundary_quote":"A “generation intensity” indicator is derived to reflect the GHG emissions intensity of electricity as it is delivered to the electricity grid.","generation_intensity":334.757,"consumption_intensity_not_adopted":346.102,"why_consumption_not_adopted":"SF6 is not combustion, and the denominator is not generation. This is a wider boundary than operational_combustion. Publishing it as if it were operational would repeat the mixed-boundary defect corrected on 8 September.","scope_excludes":"autoproducers (main activity producers only)","licence":"Open Government Licence - Canada","url":"https://data-donnees.ec.gc.ca/data/substances/monitor/canada-s-official-greenhouse-gas-inventory/C-Tables-Electricity-Canada-Provinces-Territories/","read_on":"2026-09-09","published_value":380,"published_value_basis":"hand_authored_undeclared_basis","official_value":334.8,"difference_published_minus_official":45.2,"which_one_is_served_by_this_api":"published_value","adoption_status":"not_adopted_pending_review","why_not_adopted":"Publication of changed carbon intensities is on the approval list, and this changes nine at once, which is separately a mass numerical correction. Two of the nine were corrected sixteen hours ago under carbon-correction-1.0, so this would be the second movement of the same field in one day and the public record has to say so plainly.","what_this_means_for_the_rating":"Nothing either way. carbon_intensity_g is not an input to the PGIQ Rating -- the carbon pillar is a separate, assessed field -- so neither the published value nor the official one moves a tier, score, pillar or outlook.","caveats":["Annex 7 states: \"The analysis in this section only includes main activity producers.\" Autoproducers -- industrial sites generating for their own use, such as pulp mills and refinery cogeneration -- are excluded from both the emissions and the generation. A grid average that included them would differ, and in a province with heavy industrial self-generation it would differ materially.","The 2024 column carries footnote a, \"Preliminary data\". It is the current official figure and it is expected to be revised in a later submission.","Annex 7 footnote 1: Statistics Canada occasionally revises historic data, which can change values across the whole series, not just the latest year. A figure adopted from this table is a figure that will move."],"observed_generation_mix_2024":{"gas_pct":67.67,"coal_pct":2.98,"all_combustion_pct":71.46,"total_generation_gwh":65365.064,"basis":"share of electricity GENERATED, main activity producers, ECCC Annex 7","stated_fuel_mix_on_this_record_is":"a different and unsourced quantity. It is not known to be a generation share, and where the two can be compared they differ in both directions."}},"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":1,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"historical","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.albertamsa.ca/assets/Documents/January-and-April-2024-Event-Report.pdf"},{"layer":"Connection friction","method":"measured","vintage":"2025/26","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.aeso.ca/grid/connecting-to-the-grid/large-load-projects/"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"triangulated","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.aeso.ca/market/market-and-system-reporting/"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med-High","under_review":false,"thesis":"Canada's most open market: an energy-only, connect-friendly grid drawing a wave of AI data-centre announcements, with cheap gas for self-supply. What holds it back is higher power cost, a gas-heavy grid, and an interim AESO cap on large-load connections.","pillars":{"access":75,"availability":62,"cost":65,"momentum":60,"carbon":62},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Open, energy-only market; an interim AESO large-load connection cap is in place while it studies the surge.","availability":"Adequate availability (gas plus growing wind), with cheap self-supply gas.","cost":"Mid-range cost.","momentum":"Rising momentum: a wave of AI announcements.","carbon":"Carbon moderate (~260 g), gas-led but decarbonising."},"offtake_opportunity_index":38,"demand_hunger":44,"build_feasibility":22,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":34,"bess_arbitrage_pct":62,"solar_capture_pct":103,"wind_capture_pct":99},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["AI announcements convert from announced to operational.","AESO resolves the interim large-load cap with a durable framework."],"downgrade":["The interim connection cap tightens.","Carbon profile deters RE-mandated tenants."]},"risks":["Interim large-load connection limit.","Power cost and carbon."],"peers":{"like":"ERCOT (open, energy-only, gas)","ahead":"on openness vs other provinces","behind":"ERCOT on cost"},"sources":[{"label":"AESO large-load process","url":"https://www.aeso.ca/"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Jun 2026","type":"Affirmed","note":"Interim tranche fully subscribed with no durable Phase 2 framework yet is a near-term access constraint, but gas-rich, pro-build fundamentals hold the tier. Affirmed; outlook watch if Phase 2 slips.","trigger":"AESO Phase 1 fully allocated (12 Jun 2026)"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":55,"carbon_intensity_g":380,"renewable_pct":36,"renewable_generation_share_pct":36,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":36,"fuel_mix":{"gas":51,"coal":8,"wind":22,"solar":5,"hydro":6,"biofuel":3,"storage":5},"demand_mw":10800,"capacity_mw":24000,"imports_mw":100,"exports_mw":600,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":15552,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M2 Compiled","overall_permits":"Compiled from cited sources: supports investor and institutional analysis.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M3 Project-ready","connection":"M2 Compiled","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-05-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/alberta","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"independently_compiled","label":"Independently compiled","means":"The band is assembled from multiple sourced, dated and applicable published figures. It is not a single benchmark and it is not a tariff reconstruction.","reproducible":"partially"},"component":{"total_lines":3,"reproducible_lines":0,"states":["estimated_allocation"],"all_lines_are_estimated_allocations":true,"independently_reproducible":false,"illustrative":true,"notice":"Illustrative allocation of the compiled midpoint. Component lines are not separately sourced and should not be interpreted as observed tariff charges.","notice_short":"Illustrative allocation — lines not separately sourced","vocabulary_version":"evidence-layers-1.0"},"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}