{"id":"australia","rid":"AU","name":"Australia (NEM)","flag":"🇦🇺","group":"oceania","type":"overview","parent":null,"regions":["australia-nsw","australia-vic","australia-qld"],"tier_range":"3-4","tier":3,"tier_name":"Workable","score":51,"pillar_score":55,"pillar_tier":3,"pillar_tier_name":"Workable","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":4,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med-High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"National roll-up: storm-driven tower collapses are the demonstrated transmission risk. The Feb 13, 2024 Victoria storm downed six 500 kV towers near Anakie, tripping all four Loy Yang A units (about 2,900 MW lost with two wind farms); the Oct 2024 Broken Hill event blew down seven towers on a radial line and backup failures left 12,700 properties intermittently off supply for two weeks, now the subject of AER Federal Court proceedings against Transgrid. PGIQ read: risk is concentrated in storm corridors and radial fringes, not the metro hubs; see AU-NSW / AU-VIC / AU-QLD.","sources":[{"label":"Energy Networks Australia, Feb 2024 tower collapse","url":"https://www.energynetworks.com.au/news/energy-insider/towers-down-but-the-transmission-grid-powers-on/"},{"label":"AER proceedings over Broken Hill outages (RenewEconomy)","url":"https://reneweconomy.com.au/regulator-seeks-penalties-over-broken-hill-blackouts-alleges-transgrid-breached-market-rules/"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"The same Feb 2024 storm peaked at 530,000 Victorian distribution customers off supply, one of the largest outage events in the state's history, though around 90% were reconnected within 48 hours. PGIQ read: storm-day fragility with acceptable restoration; blue-sky reliability is not the concern.","sources":[{"label":"Energy Networks Australia, Feb 2024 event detail","url":"https://www.energynetworks.com.au/news/energy-insider/towers-down-but-the-transmission-grid-powers-on/"}]},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"assessed","note":"11 GW of notified, predominantly coal retirements over the next 10 years (Eraring, Bayswater, Vales Point, Yallourn, Callide B) against 28% consumption growth to 2034-35. AEMO's 2025 ESOO shows an improved outlook, with the earlier Eraring and Yallourn reliability gaps no longer forecast, but it is reliant on all expected investments being delivered on time and in full, and gaps are forecast in all mainland regions later in the decade under the committed-only view. PGIQ read: adequacy hinges on delivery execution, a Watch, not an Elevated, while replacement is committed.","sources":[{"label":"AEMO 2025 ESOO media release","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/reliability-outlook-improves-timely-investment-delivery-essential"},{"label":"AEMO 2025 Electricity Statement of Opportunities","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2025/2025-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf"}]},"regional_docks":{"australia-nsw":4,"australia-vic":4,"australia-qld":3},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":4,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"Mid-2026","event":"AEMC final rule on a connection standard for large loads in the NEM","why":"Sets the formal process and obligations for hyperscale connections.","source":{"label":"AEMO Connections Scorecard (March 2026)","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/network_connections/connections-scorecard/2026/march-2026.pdf"}}],"queue":{"active_gw":67,"wait_months":null,"has_detail":true,"wait_band":"3-4 years"},"friction":null,"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":null,"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":null,"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype, but PowerGridIQ does not publish one for this market yet.","user_action":"There is no band to use here today. The inputs are observable, so this is our work to finish rather than evidence you need to gather -- do not engage the utility on our behalf, and do not treat the absence as a finding about the market. Read cost_evidence_state.remedy for what is outstanding.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":false},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"High","coverage":"Substantial","coverage_dimensions":2,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":1,"data_layers":2,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"historical","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.energynetworks.com.au/news/energy-insider/towers-down-but-the-transmission-grid-powers-on/"},{"layer":"Interconnection queue","method":"measured","vintage":"end-2025 (LBNL 2026)","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/network_connections/connections-scorecard/2026/march-2026.pdf"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med-High","under_review":false,"thesis":"World-class solar and growing Sydney/Melbourne hubs, but NEM connection delays and higher cost hold it in Tier 3. Self-supply solar is the upside route.","pillars":{"access":58,"availability":58,"cost":45,"momentum":62,"carbon":34},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Workable but slow access: NEM connection delays and marginal-loss-factor risk.","availability":"Moderate availability; a long, thin grid.","cost":"Higher cost.","momentum":"Real momentum (Sydney top-10 globally).","carbon":"Carbon moderate-high (~460 g), coal phasing down with huge solar."},"offtake_opportunity_index":null,"demand_hunger":null,"build_feasibility":null,"supplier_signals":null,"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Big-battery and solar build firms supply and lowers carbon.","Self-supply solar for large loads."],"downgrade":["NEM connection and MLF risk worsen.","Cost."]},"risks":["Connection delays and MLF.","Coal-transition reliability."],"peers":{"like":"long-thin renewable-heavy grids","ahead":"on solar resource","behind":"ERCOT on access"},"sources":[{"label":"Australia NEM batteries, Modo Energy","url":"https://modoenergy.com/research/en/australia-nem-2025-battery-energy-storage-wrapped-bess-buildout"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Aug 2026","type":"Affirmed","note":"Tier holds for now. The obligation is advice, not law, with federal legislation targeted for early 2027 and AEMC implementation estimates of 12 months for the REGO obligation and 24 to 36 months for registration and connection reform. Direction is clear even if timing is not: a large load in the NEM will have to fund new generation and firming rather than draw on existing supply, which raises the all-in cost of siting here and tightens Access. NSW moving first with REZ-style access control sharpens that.","trigger":"AEMC advice to the ECMC 28 Jul 2026, released 5 Aug 2026; NSW Electricity Infrastructure Investment Amendment Bill 2026, 5 Aug 2026"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":70,"carbon_intensity_g":520,"renewable_pct":46,"renewable_generation_share_pct":46,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":46,"fuel_mix":{"coal":45,"gas":7,"solar":20,"wind":16,"hydro":8,"biofuel":2,"storage":2},"demand_mw":22000,"capacity_mw":55000,"imports_mw":0,"exports_mw":0,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":34100,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"solar","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"not_assessed","overall_permits":"Not assessed. Treat as an open diligence item; absence of a finding is not evidence of low risk.","insufficient_evidence":true,"unassessed_required_fields":["connection","cost"],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","cost","reliability"],"fields":{"reliability":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"not_assessed","connection":"not_assessed","regulatory":"not_assessed","carbon":"M2 Compiled","cost":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","cost"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"Australia NSW (Sydney): not assessed here: cost, connection Australia Victoria (Melbourne): not assessed here: cost, connection Australia Queensland (Brisbane): not assessed here: cost, connection"},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","cost","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"Australia NSW (Sydney): not assessed here: cost, connection Australia Victoria (Melbourne): not assessed here: cost, connection Australia Queensland (Brisbane): not assessed here: cost, connection"},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","cost","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"Australia NSW (Sydney): not assessed here: cost, connection Australia Victoria (Melbourne): not assessed here: cost, connection Australia Queensland (Brisbane): not assessed here: cost, connection"},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["carbon","connection","cost","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"Australia NSW (Sydney): not assessed here: cost, connection Australia Victoria (Melbourne): not assessed here: cost, connection Australia Queensland (Brisbane): not assessed here: cost, connection"},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","cost","local_capacity","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"Australia NSW (Sydney): not assessed here: cost, connection, local capacity Australia Victoria (Melbourne): not assessed here: cost, connection, local capacity Australia Queensland (Brisbane): not assessed here: cost, connection, local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion.","assessment":"aggregated_from_constituents","aggregation":"weakest constituent, per field","aggregation_version":"depth-aggregate-1.0","derived_from":["australia-nsw","australia-vic","australia-qld"],"why":"This is a summary row covering Australia NSW (Sydney), Australia Victoria (Melbourne), Australia Queensland (Brisbane). It is not separately researched, so its evidence depth is the weakest of its constituent markets rather than an assessment of the summary itself. Screen and compare on the constituent markets, not on this row. local_capacity is not_assessed here by construction: a local-deliverability finding belongs to a bus or a substation and does not aggregate to a region."},"next_review":null,"report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/australia","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"insufficient_evidence","label":"Insufficient evidence","means":"No band is published because the available evidence does not support one.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."},"overview":{"is_market":false,"row_type":"overview","summarises":["australia-nsw","australia-vic","australia-qld"],"what_it_is":"A summary row covering the markets named in `summarises`. It is not separately researched and is excluded from /api/v1/markets, /screen, /best and the ranked cost table.","instead":"Screen, rank and compare on the markets in `summarises`. Fetch each at /api/v1/ratings/{id}.","evidence_depth_note":"Its evidence_depth is the weakest of its constituents, aggregated rather than assessed. local_capacity is not_assessed by construction: local deliverability belongs to a bus, not a region."}}