{"id":"australia-nsw","rid":"AU-NSW","name":"Australia NSW (Sydney)","flag":"🇦🇺","group":"oceania","type":"market","parent":"australia","regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":3,"tier_name":"Workable","score":51,"pillar_score":55,"pillar_tier":3,"pillar_tier_name":"Workable","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":4,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med-High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"The Oct 2024 Broken Hill event blew down seven towers on the only line to the far-west radial network; backup failures left 12,700 properties intermittently off supply until 31 October 2024, and the AER has instituted Federal Court proceedings against Transgrid over network maintenance and restoration. PGIQ read: exposure sits on radial fringes, not the Sydney metro grid a large load would connect to.","sources":[{"label":"AER proceedings over Broken Hill outages (RenewEconomy)","url":"https://reneweconomy.com.au/regulator-seeks-penalties-over-broken-hill-blackouts-alleges-transgrid-breached-market-rules/"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"assessed","note":"AEMO's 2025 ESOO states the reliability gaps previously identified around the Eraring retirement (2,880 MW, notified for 19 August 2027) are no longer forecast, but the improved outlook is reliant on all expected investments being delivered on time and in full, and gaps are forecast in all mainland regions later in the decade under the committed-only view. PGIQ read: execution risk, not a forecast shortfall.","sources":[{"label":"AEMO 2025 Electricity Statement of Opportunities","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2025/2025-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf"},{"label":"AEMO 2025 ESOO media release","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/reliability-outlook-improves-timely-investment-delivery-essential"}]},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":4,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":null,"friction":null,"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":null,"territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":null,"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype, but PowerGridIQ does not publish one for this market yet.","user_action":"There is no band to use here today. The inputs are observable, so this is our work to finish rather than evidence you need to gather -- do not engage the utility on our behalf, and do not treat the absence as a finding about the market. Read cost_evidence_state.remedy for what is outstanding.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":false},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Partial","coverage_dimensions":1,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":0,"data_layers":1,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"historical","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://reneweconomy.com.au/regulator-seeks-penalties-over-broken-hill-blackouts-alleges-transgrid-breached-market-rules/"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med-High","under_review":false,"thesis":"Sydney is Australia's data-center capital by a wide margin, but NSW carries the sharpest coal-retirement reliability question, with Eraring (2,880 MW) due to close in 2027.","pillars":{"access":58,"availability":52,"cost":45,"momentum":78,"carbon":38},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Workable but slow NEM access; Sydney hosts about 90 data centres, and the southern hemisphere's largest was just approved.","availability":"Availability is the swing factor: AEMO flags NSW reliability gaps around the 2027-28 Eraring exit.","cost":"Higher NEM cost; self-supply solar is the upside route.","momentum":"Highest momentum in the country: Sydney is a global top-tier hub.","carbon":"Moderate carbon: black coal phasing down with big solar and storage build."},"offtake_opportunity_index":84,"demand_hunger":56,"build_feasibility":58,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":46,"bess_arbitrage_pct":62,"solar_capture_pct":103,"wind_capture_pct":99},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Battery and transmission build cover the Eraring exit.","Continued Sydney hyperscale approvals."],"downgrade":["Delayed dispatchable capacity widens the 2027-28 gap.","Transmission cost escalation and delay."]},"risks":["Coal-retirement reliability gap.","Connection delays and marginal-loss-factor risk."],"peers":{"like":"transitioning coal grids with strong demand","ahead":"the rest of Australia on revealed build","behind":"on coal-exit reliability certainty"},"sources":[{"label":"NSW approves southern hemisphere's largest data centre","url":"https://ia.acs.org.au/article/2025/nsw-approves-southern-hemisphere-s-largest-data-centre.html"},{"label":"AEMO 2024 ESOO","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2024/2024-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 3 Workable assigned (New South Wales).","trigger":null},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":75,"carbon_intensity_g":540,"renewable_pct":36,"renewable_generation_share_pct":36,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":36,"fuel_mix":{"coal":55,"gas":8,"solar":15,"wind":12,"hydro":8,"biofuel":1,"storage":1},"demand_mw":8500,"capacity_mw":18500,"imports_mw":800,"exports_mw":200,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":13175,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"not_assessed","overall_permits":"Not assessed. Treat as an open diligence item; absence of a finding is not evidence of low risk.","insufficient_evidence":true,"unassessed_required_fields":["cost","connection"],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"not_assessed","connection":"not_assessed","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"not_assessed","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection, local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-07-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/australia-nsw","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"insufficient_evidence","label":"Insufficient evidence","means":"No band is published because the available evidence does not support one.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}