{"id":"australia-vic","rid":"AU-VIC","name":"Australia Victoria (Melbourne)","flag":"🇦🇺","group":"oceania","type":"market","parent":"australia","regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":4,"tier_name":"Constrained","score":48,"pillar_score":52,"pillar_tier":4,"pillar_tier_name":"Constrained","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":4,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med-High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"The Feb 13, 2024 storm downed six 500 kV towers near Anakie on the Moorabool-Sydenham line, tripping all four Loy Yang A units; Victoria lost about 2,900 MW of generation and AEMO directed 300 MW of load shedding. The line returned on temporary towers within two weeks. PGIQ read: demonstrated storm exposure on the 500 kV backbone serving Melbourne, with fast system recovery.","sources":[{"label":"Energy Networks Australia, Feb 2024 tower collapse","url":"https://www.energynetworks.com.au/news/energy-insider/towers-down-but-the-transmission-grid-powers-on/"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"The same Feb 2024 storm peaked at 530,000 Victorian distribution customers off supply, though around 90% were reconnected in the first 48 hours. PGIQ read: storm-day fragility with acceptable restoration.","sources":[{"label":"Energy Networks Australia, Feb 2024 event detail","url":"https://www.energynetworks.com.au/news/energy-insider/towers-down-but-the-transmission-grid-powers-on/"}]},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"assessed","note":"Stepped down from Elevated: AEMO's 2025 ESOO states the reliability gaps previously identified after the Yallourn retirement (1,450 MW, notified for 1 July 2028) are no longer forecast, as in-train developments are now likely enough. PGIQ read: the risk is delivery execution against an improved forecast, no longer a forecast gap.","sources":[{"label":"AEMO 2025 Electricity Statement of Opportunities","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2025/2025-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf"},{"label":"AEMO 2025 ESOO media release","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/reliability-outlook-improves-timely-investment-delivery-essential"}]},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":4,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":null,"friction":null,"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":null,"territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":null,"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype, but PowerGridIQ does not publish one for this market yet.","user_action":"There is no band to use here today. The inputs are observable, so this is our work to finish rather than evidence you need to gather -- do not engage the utility on our behalf, and do not treat the absence as a finding about the market. Read cost_evidence_state.remedy for what is outstanding.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":false},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Partial","coverage_dimensions":1,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":0,"data_layers":1,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"historical","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.energynetworks.com.au/news/energy-insider/towers-down-but-the-transmission-grid-powers-on/"}]},"outlook":"Stable","confidence":"Med-High","under_review":false,"thesis":"Melbourne is a real hub, but Victoria runs on Latrobe Valley brown coal, the highest-emitting power in the NEM, and faces the biggest near-term reliability gap as Yallourn (1,450 MW) exits in 2028.","pillars":{"access":58,"availability":50,"cost":48,"momentum":58,"carbon":20},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Workable access with a growing Melbourne cluster (about 40 data centres).","availability":"The tightest reliability picture: AEMO flags roughly a 1.7 GW gap in the Yallourn exit window unless new dispatchable capacity arrives.","cost":"Cheaper brown-coal power, for now.","momentum":"Solid momentum, second to Sydney.","carbon":"Worst carbon in the NEM: Latrobe brown coal runs at 1.2-1.5 kg CO2 per kWh."},"offtake_opportunity_index":77,"demand_hunger":49,"build_feasibility":58,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":40,"bess_arbitrage_pct":62,"solar_capture_pct":101,"wind_capture_pct":100},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Storage and wind fill the Yallourn gap on time.","Offshore wind build accelerates."],"downgrade":["Yallourn exit outpaces replacement capacity.","Brown-coal carbon deters carbon-sensitive tenants."]},"risks":["1.7 GW reliability gap at the Yallourn exit.","High carbon intensity."],"peers":{"like":"high-carbon coal grids in transition","ahead":"on hub maturity","behind":"the rest of Australia on carbon and reliability"},"sources":[{"label":"AEMO 2024 ESOO (Victoria Yallourn gap)","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2024/2024-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf"},{"label":"Victoria brown-coal emissions intensity (Environment Victoria)","url":"https://environmentvictoria.org.au/our-campaigns/safe-climate/problem-brown-coal/"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 4 Constrained assigned (Victoria).","trigger":null},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":64,"carbon_intensity_g":600,"renewable_pct":44,"renewable_generation_share_pct":44,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":44,"fuel_mix":{"coal":48,"gas":6,"wind":22,"solar":12,"hydro":10,"storage":2},"demand_mw":6000,"capacity_mw":14000,"imports_mw":600,"exports_mw":400,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":9300,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"not_assessed","overall_permits":"Not assessed. Treat as an open diligence item; absence of a finding is not evidence of low risk.","insufficient_evidence":true,"unassessed_required_fields":["cost","connection"],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"not_assessed","connection":"not_assessed","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"not_assessed","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection, local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-09-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/australia-vic","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"insufficient_evidence","label":"Insufficient evidence","means":"No band is published because the available evidence does not support one.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}