{"id":"brazil","rid":"BR","name":"Brazil (Sao Paulo)","flag":"🇧🇷","group":"latam","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":2,"tier_name":"Strong","score":67,"pillar_score":72,"pillar_tier":2,"pillar_tier_name":"Strong","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":5,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Low","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"A nationwide blackout on Aug 15, 2023 interrupted about 19 GW (roughly 27% of load) when the north-to-southeast grid split and voltage-control failures cascaded; heavy hydro dependence also adds drought exposure. Confidence is low and much of the underlying data is modelled.","sources":[{"label":"2023 Brazil blackout (Wikipedia)","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazil_blackout"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"modelled","note":"Hydro-dominant supply is exposed to recurring drought across South America."},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":5,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":null,"friction":null,"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":null,"territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":null,"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype, but PowerGridIQ does not publish one for this market yet.","user_action":"There is no band to use here today. The inputs are observable, so this is our work to finish rather than evidence you need to gather -- do not engage the utility on our behalf, and do not treat the absence as a finding about the market. Read cost_evidence_state.remedy for what is outstanding.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":false},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Partial","coverage_dimensions":1,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":0,"data_layers":1,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"historical","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazil_blackout"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Low","under_review":false,"thesis":"Cheap, clean hydro and LATAM-leading build. Strong on the data we have, but confidence is explicitly low: macro, currency and transmission risk are real, and our coverage is modelled rather than live.","pillars":{"access":58,"availability":70,"cost":88,"momentum":70,"carbon":86},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Workable access, with transmission caveats from the hydro-rich north to load centers.","availability":"Good availability from a large hydro base, with drought-year risk.","cost":"Cheap power and a competitive cost base.","momentum":"LATAM-leading momentum: ~670 MW operational in Sao Paulo with ~770 MW in the queue.","carbon":"Clean grid (~90 g), predominantly hydro."},"offtake_opportunity_index":69,"demand_hunger":41,"build_feasibility":58,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":18,"bess_arbitrage_pct":60,"solar_capture_pct":94,"wind_capture_pct":101},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Build pipeline converts and data confidence improves with live coverage.","Transmission reinforcement from generation to load."],"downgrade":["Macro/currency instability deters capital.","Drought curtails hydro availability."]},"risks":["Data confidence and macro risk.","Hydrological and transmission constraints."],"peers":{"like":"Chile (LATAM, cheap clean, improving)","ahead":"on cost","behind":"US hubs on certainty"},"sources":[{"label":"Brazil data-center capacity, industry reports","url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/06/16/3099658/0/en/Brazil-Data-Center-Portfolio-Analysis-Report-2025.html"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 2 Strong assigned (low confidence).","trigger":null},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":30,"carbon_intensity_g":103,"renewable_pct":85,"renewable_generation_share_pct":85,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":87,"fuel_mix":{"hydro":52,"wind":15,"solar":10,"biofuel":8,"gas":13,"nuclear":2},"demand_mw":65000,"capacity_mw":175000,"imports_mw":2000,"exports_mw":1000,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":89700,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"hydro","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"not_assessed","overall_permits":"Not assessed. Treat as an open diligence item; absence of a finding is not evidence of low risk.","insufficient_evidence":true,"unassessed_required_fields":["cost","connection"],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"not_assessed","connection":"not_assessed","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"not_assessed","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection, local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"modelled"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2026-12-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/brazil","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"insufficient_evidence","label":"Insufficient evidence","means":"No band is published because the available evidence does not support one.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}