{"id":"caiso","rid":"CAISO","name":"CAISO (California)","flag":"🇺🇸","group":"us","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":3,"tier_name":"Workable","score":49,"pillar_score":56,"pillar_tier":3,"pillar_tier_name":"Workable","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"elevated","dock":7,"provisional":false,"confidence":"High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"elevated","measure":"event-based","note":"ISO-ordered rotating outages during the August 2020 heat wave (about 492,000 customers cut on Aug 14) show supply-shortfall load-shedding risk at peak.","sources":[{"label":"CAISO rotating outages fact sheet","url":"https://www.caiso.com/Documents/Rotating-Power-Outages-Fact-Sheet.pdf"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"elevated","measure":"event-based","note":"Public Safety Power Shutoffs: utilities proactively de-energize lines during wildfire-risk weather, so a load can lose grid power for reasons unrelated to its own site.","sources":[{"label":"CPUC Public Safety Power Shutoffs","url":"https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/psps/"}]},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"assessed","note":"NERC's 2024 assessment rates California elevated-risk, with extreme heat likely to cause reserve shortfalls.","sources":[{"label":"NERC 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment","url":"https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/2024-ltra_corrected_july_2025.pdf"}]},"read":"Reliability flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":7,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"mixed","direction":"stable","why":"FERC's 18 June 2026 Section 206 show-cause order directs CAISO to justify or rewrite its large-load and co-location tariff terms, so the rules for connecting a data centre are formally in flux; California's high retail costs and its own cost-allocation review add friction on top.","what_would_change_it":"The Section 206 process settling on clear large-load connection and cost-allocation rules, and California resolving who pays for the supporting build.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0"},"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":{"active_gw":191,"wait_months":null,"has_detail":true,"wait_band":"5+ years"},"friction":null,"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"triangulated","territory_count":4},"reliability_metrics":{"saidi_min":177.06,"saidi_year":"2024","forward_adequacy":null,"measure":"historical utility-territory delivery performance","standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","standard_note":"major event days identified by IEEE 1366 (2.5-beta method)","evidence_role":"market_context","by_serving_utility":[{"customers":5795693,"saidi_minutes":275.6,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"CA","utility":"Pacific Gas & Electric Co.","utility_id":14328,"weight":0.4564},{"customers":5316264,"saidi_minutes":100.25,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"CA","utility":"Southern California Edison Co","utility_id":17609,"weight":0.4186},{"customers":1527274,"saidi_minutes":71.13,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"CA","utility":"San Diego Gas & Electric Co","utility_id":16609,"weight":0.1203},{"customers":60620,"saidi_minutes":161.73,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"CA","utility":"City of Santa Clara - (CA)","utility_id":16655,"weight":0.0048}],"evidence_role_basis":"comparison and monitoring only: a customer-weighted regional blend is not the record of the utility that would serve a specific site"},"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":95,"mid_usd_per_mwh":120,"high_usd_per_mwh":155,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"triangulated","public_fragments":3,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes","cost_components":null,"component_status":{"withheld":true,"reason":"The Cost pillar is under review. Realized-cost review of California non-bypassable and delivery charges, Jul 2026. The delivered band is the thing under review, so it stays suppressed.","arithmetic_integrity":null,"evidence_reconciliation":null,"text":"The component breakdown is withheld for this market. The delivered-cost band above is unaffected and remains published with its stated confidence.","method_version":"cost-components-1.0"}},"cost_availability":{"label":"Cost contingent or evolving","means":"The inputs exist but the applicable economics are unsettled: a rate case, a cost review or a market redesign is open and may move them materially.","user_action":"Treat cost as unresolved and track the named proceeding. Do not plan against a figure that a pending decision may change.","class":"contingent_evolving","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"methodology_unresolved","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Methodology unresolved","means":"The underlying observations exist and are cited, but the correct conversion or treatment for the archetype is not yet established, so the resulting figure is not settled.","remedy":"Resolve the methodology from first principles, then populate. Not a data-collection problem.","also_holds":["applicable_evidence_incomplete"],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"High","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":2,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability","method":"measured","vintage":"2024","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/"},{"layer":"Interconnection queue","method":"measured","vintage":"end-2025 (LBNL 2026)","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://emp.lbl.gov/queues"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"triangulated","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.publicadvocates.cpuc.ca.gov/press-room/commentary/251027-how-will-data-center-growth-impact-california-ratepayers"}]},"outlook":"Negative","confidence":"High","under_review":true,"thesis":"A huge, proven ecosystem (Silicon Valley), but for a new large load it is expensive, supply-tight into the evening ramp, and queue-constrained. Momentum keeps it from falling further; access and cost keep it out of Tier 2.","pillars":{"access":45,"availability":48,"cost":68,"momentum":70,"carbon":68},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Constrained access: deep cluster-study queue, storage-heavy backlog.","availability":"Tight availability: the evening net-load ramp as solar fades.","cost":"High cost.","momentum":"High momentum: the established Silicon Valley cluster.","carbon":"Carbon moderate (~230 g), solar-and-gas with heavy storage."},"offtake_opportunity_index":70,"demand_hunger":54,"build_feasibility":45,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":28,"bess_arbitrage_pct":67,"solar_capture_pct":83,"wind_capture_pct":103,"effective_competing_supply_gw":38.2},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Storage build flattens the ramp and frees capacity.","Queue reform speeds connections."],"downgrade":["Wildfire-season shutoffs and ramp tightness worsen.","Cost and policy push new build out of state."]},"risks":["Evening ramp and supply adequacy.","Wildfire/PSPS and high cost."],"peers":{"like":"NYISO (proven, constrained, pricey)","ahead":"on ecosystem","behind":"ERCOT on cost and access"},"sources":[{"label":"CAISO battery report","url":"https://www.caiso.com/documents/2024-special-report-on-battery-storage-may-29-2025.pdf"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Jul 2026","type":"Under review","note":"The Cost pillar (currently 68) is placed under review. California's wholesale price badly understates the delivered cost once non-bypassable charges, the Power Charge Indifference Adjustment, delivery, and Rule 30 upfront transmission are counted; a large load's all-in runs closer to $95 to $155 per MWh, an expensive market, not a moderate one. Reassessing the Cost score; tier could move down as the cost read weakens.","trigger":"Realized-cost review of California non-bypassable and delivery charges (Jul 2026)"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":42,"carbon_intensity_g":230,"renewable_pct":59,"renewable_generation_share_pct":59,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":67,"fuel_mix":{"solar":28,"wind":14,"nuclear":8,"hydro":15,"gas":32,"geo":2,"storage":1},"demand_mw":28000,"capacity_mw":82000,"imports_mw":5000,"exports_mw":2000,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":43400,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"solar","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M2 Compiled","overall_permits":"Compiled from cited sources: supports investor and institutional analysis.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M3 Project-ready","connection":"M2 Compiled","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"held","method":"measured"},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2026-12-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/caiso","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"independently_compiled","label":"Independently compiled","means":"The band is assembled from multiple sourced, dated and applicable published figures. It is not a single benchmark and it is not a tariff reconstruction.","reproducible":"partially"},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}