{"id":"desert-southwest","rid":"DSWS","name":"Desert Southwest (Phoenix)","flag":"🇺🇸","group":"us","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":2,"tier_name":"Strong","score":69,"pillar_score":72,"pillar_tier":2,"pillar_tier_name":"Strong","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":3,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med","delivery_transmission":{"level":"none"},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"modelled","note":"Phoenix and the desert Southwest face extreme summer cooling peaks that strain supply; utilities have managed them so far, but heat-driven peak stress is the standing forward risk."},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":3,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":{"active_gw":95,"wait_months":null,"has_detail":true,"wait_band":"4-5 years"},"friction":null,"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":null,"territory_count":4},"reliability_metrics":{"saidi_min":67.88,"saidi_year":"2024","forward_adequacy":null,"measure":"historical utility-territory delivery performance","standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","standard_note":"major event days identified by IEEE 1366 (2.5-beta method)","evidence_role":"market_context","by_serving_utility":[{"customers":1395614,"saidi_minutes":80.86,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"AZ","utility":"Arizona Public Service Co","utility_id":803,"weight":0.4473},{"customers":1161925,"saidi_minutes":52.81,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"AZ","utility":"Salt River Project","utility_id":16572,"weight":0.3724},{"customers":455579,"saidi_minutes":68.36,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"AZ","utility":"Tucson Electric Power Co","utility_id":24211,"weight":0.146},{"customers":106739,"saidi_minutes":60.13,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"AZ","utility":"UNS Electric, Inc","utility_id":19728,"weight":0.0342}],"evidence_role_basis":"comparison and monitoring only: a customer-weighted regional blend is not the record of the utility that would serve a specific site"},"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":null,"cost_availability":{"label":"Cost contingent or evolving","means":"The inputs exist but the applicable economics are unsettled: a rate case, a cost review or a market redesign is open and may move them materially.","user_action":"Treat cost as unresolved and track the named proceeding. Do not plan against a figure that a pending decision may change.","class":"contingent_evolving","band_published":false},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"inapplicable","answerable":false,"label":"Inapplicable evidence","means":"The evidence we hold cites a tariff or service the standard archetype cannot purchase. It may be accurate about some other customer and still say nothing about this one.","remedy":"Obtain evidence for a service the archetype could actually contract. The existing figures cannot be repaired by recalculation.","also_holds":["applicable_evidence_incomplete"],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":{"defect":"#317","reason":"The published band blended an effective regulated rate with APS's PROPOSED extra-large-load class of roughly +45%, which the Arizona Corporation Commission has not decided: the rate-case hearing closed 7 July 2026 and the Commission's vote is due by 31 December 2026. A pending proceeding may not set a current delivered cost. The band's primary source was also an ACC large-load workshop rather than a tariff.","withdrawn":"2026-08-20","restore_when":"A cited EFFECTIVE rate applicable to the standard archetype -- APS's Extra High Load Factor schedule as it currently stands, or SRP's E-67 large-load terms -- with a stated cost boundary, effective date, method and confidence. The proposed class may then be carried as a dated forward risk outside the band, never inside it.","related_defects":["#317 proposed rate class blended into a current band","#317b primary source is a regulatory workshop, not a tariff"],"forward_regulatory_risk":{"status":"pending_decision","what":"APS rate case seeking roughly +45% for extra-large load customers, alongside changes to the Extra High Load Factor rate that applies to data centres.","hearing_closed":"2026-07-07","decision_due_by":"2026-12-31","why_it_matters":"If approved, the effective cost for a new large load in APS territory rises materially. This is a dated, cited risk to a future band, and it is deliberately reported here rather than inside one.","source":"Arizona Corporation Commission, What's Next in the APS Rate Case (10 July 2026)","source_url":"https://www.azcc.gov/news/home/2026/07/10/what-s-next-in-the-aps-rate-case"},"consequence":"No delivered-cost band is published for this market. Cost-dependent conclusions return insufficient_evidence rather than a substituted value."},"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Substantial","coverage_dimensions":2,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":1,"data_layers":2,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability","method":"measured","vintage":"2024","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/"},{"layer":"Interconnection queue","method":"modelled","vintage":"end-2025 (LBNL 2026)","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://emp.lbl.gov/queues"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med-High","under_review":false,"thesis":"One of the fastest-growing US markets, on abundant land, strong solar and a pro-build posture. Phoenix overtook Dallas and Silicon Valley on inventory in 2025. The clearest US momentum riser after Texas.","pillars":{"access":68,"availability":62,"cost":80,"momentum":85,"carbon":70},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Moderate, improving access: Arizona utilities are accommodating large load and building fast.","availability":"Moderate availability: solar plus gas, with batteries increasingly covering the evening peak.","cost":"Low-to-mid cost.","momentum":"Very high momentum: a top inventory-growth market with a deep pipeline.","carbon":"Carbon moderate (~200 g), solar-heavy by day."},"offtake_opportunity_index":81,"demand_hunger":45,"build_feasibility":68,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":24,"bess_arbitrage_pct":63,"solar_capture_pct":85,"wind_capture_pct":103,"effective_competing_supply_gw":23.8},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Continued solar-plus-storage build lowers carbon and firms the peak.","Sustained absorption converts the pipeline."],"downgrade":["Water and extreme-heat constraints.","Transmission limits slow new connections."]},"risks":["Summer extreme heat and cooling-peak reliability.","Water availability for cooling."],"peers":{"like":"Atlanta (fast-building, mid-cost)","ahead":"on momentum","behind":"ERCOT on openness"},"sources":[{"label":"North American data-center records, CBRE","url":"https://www.cbre.com/press-releases/fast-growing-north-american-data-center-market-set-records-in-2025"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 2 Strong assigned.","trigger":null},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":38,"carbon_intensity_g":210,"renewable_pct":48,"renewable_generation_share_pct":48,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":60,"fuel_mix":{"solar":38,"gas":36,"nuclear":12,"wind":8,"coal":4,"geo":2},"demand_mw":18000,"capacity_mw":44000,"imports_mw":2000,"exports_mw":3000,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":25560,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"solar","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"not_assessed","overall_permits":"Not assessed. Treat as an open diligence item; absence of a finding is not evidence of low risk.","insufficient_evidence":true,"unassessed_required_fields":["cost"],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"not_assessed","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"not_assessed","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost"},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost"},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost"},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost"},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"modelled"},"local_delivery":{"state":"held","method":"measured"},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-09-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/desert-southwest","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"withdrawn","label":"Withdrawn","means":"A band was published, found unsupported, and removed under a dated correction.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}