{"id":"ercot","rid":"ERCOT","name":"ERCOT (Texas)","flag":"🇺🇸","group":"us","type":"overview","parent":null,"regions":["ercot-west","ercot-central"],"tier_range":"2","tier":2,"tier_name":"Strong","score":70,"pillar_score":78,"pillar_tier":1,"pillar_tier_name":"Prime","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"elevated","dock":8,"provisional":false,"confidence":"High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"Extreme-cold fragility was demonstrated in Winter Storm Uri (Feb 2021), when ERCOT ordered about 20,000 MW of rolling blackouts, the largest manual load shed in US history, with outages lasting days; freezing and fuel issues drove roughly 76% of unit failures. Post-Uri winterization rules have improved subsequent winter performance but the tail risk remains.","sources":[{"label":"FERC/NERC Feb 2021 cold weather final report","url":"https://www.ferc.gov/news-events/news/final-report-february-2021-freeze-underscores-winterization-recommendations"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"elevated","measure":"assessed","note":"NERC's 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment rates ERCOT elevated-risk: about 20 GW of new large loads plus a more variable, less dispatchable resource mix raise the risk of long-term shortfalls.","sources":[{"label":"NERC 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment","url":"https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/2024-ltra_corrected_july_2025.pdf"}]},"regional_docks":{"ercot-west":8,"ercot-central":8},"read":"Reliability flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":8,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"favourable","direction":"stable","why":"Energy-only connect-and-manage keeps ERCOT the fastest large-load path in the US; the regulatory watch is readiness-tested queue management (a 75 MW threshold and posted security), not closure.","what_would_change_it":"Restrictive new large-load interconnection rules following a major reliability event.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0","beyond_the_grid":{"text":"Water and local consent are the main non-grid frictions: a University of Texas poll found 56 percent of Texas voters, and 62 percent in rural areas, oppose a data centre in their community, and the state still does not require most centres to report water use even as it faces scarcity.","sources":[{"label":"Texas Tribune","url":"https://www.texastribune.org/2025/09/25/texas-data-center-water-use/"},{"label":"UT Austin","url":"https://news.utexas.edu/2026/05/06/data-centers-are-growing-in-texas-but-big-questions-remain-about-water-use/"}]},"for_new_supply":"Energy-only connect-and-manage is the fastest generation build path in the US, which is why supply and demand are racing each other here."},"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"From about 2029","event":"NERC flags an elevated energy-shortfall risk as large-load growth outpaces firm supply","why":"The adequacy inflection a multi-year siting decision should price in, even with today's fast energization.","source":{"label":"NERC 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (Jan 2026)","url":"https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/nerc_ltra_2025.pdf"}}],"queue":{"active_gw":408,"wait_months":null,"has_detail":true,"wait_band":"2-3 years"},"friction":null,"connection_pathway":{"operator":"ERCOT","role":"independent system operator","process":"Large Load Interconnection, via the transmission or distribution service provider","note":"The TDSP submits on the load's behalf; ERCOT reviews. In ERCOT the wires company and the retail supplier are different companies.","url":"https://www.ercot.com/services/programs/load"},"service_evidence":null,"reliability_metrics":{"saidi_min":97.52,"saidi_year":"2024","forward_adequacy":null,"measure":"historical utility-territory delivery performance","standard":"MIXED","standard_note":"mixed methods: IEEE 60%; respondent-defined 40% of customers. Major event days are excluded throughout; the methods differ only in how those days are identified, a smaller difference than the spread between the utilities themselves. Constituents below carry their own standard.","evidence_role":"market_context","by_serving_utility":[{"customers":4013062,"saidi_minutes":67.28,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"Oncor Electric Delivery Company LLC","utility_id":44372,"weight":0.378},{"customers":2847806,"saidi_minutes":150.09,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"CenterPoint Energy","utility_id":8901,"weight":0.2683},{"customers":938905,"saidi_minutes":61.8,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"City of San Antonio - (TX)","utility_id":16604,"weight":0.0884},{"customers":913164,"saidi_minutes":149.6,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"AEP Texas Central Company","utility_id":3278,"weight":0.086},{"customers":557039,"saidi_minutes":76.03,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"Austin Energy","utility_id":1015,"weight":0.0525},{"customers":425109,"saidi_minutes":57.44,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"Pedernales Electric Coop, Inc","utility_id":14626,"weight":0.04},{"customers":319523,"saidi_minutes":26.9,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"Denton County Elec Coop, Inc","utility_id":5078,"weight":0.0301},{"customers":268934,"saidi_minutes":118.37,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"Texas-New Mexico Power Co","utility_id":40051,"weight":0.0253},{"customers":199119,"saidi_minutes":102.6,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"AEP Texas North Company","utility_id":20404,"weight":0.0188},{"customers":132597,"saidi_minutes":117.15,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"Bluebonnet Electric Coop, Inc","utility_id":1892,"weight":0.0125}],"evidence_role_basis":"comparison and monitoring only: a customer-weighted regional blend is not the record of the utility that would serve a specific site"},"forward_cost":{"level":"Elevated","price":"no capacity market (energy-only)","period":"ongoing"},"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":42,"mid_usd_per_mwh":null,"high_usd_per_mwh":95,"confidence":null,"aggregation":"constituent_envelope","aggregation_version":"constituent-envelope-1.0","basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes","derived_from":["ercot-west","ercot-central"],"constituents":[{"market":"ercot-west","name":"ERCOT West (West Texas & Panhandle)","low_usd_per_mwh":42,"mid_usd_per_mwh":55,"high_usd_per_mwh":80,"confidence":"triangulated"},{"market":"ercot-central","name":"ERCOT Central (Houston & DFW)","low_usd_per_mwh":55,"mid_usd_per_mwh":72,"high_usd_per_mwh":95,"confidence":"triangulated"}],"bound_attribution":{"low":{"market":"ercot-west","name":"ERCOT West (West Texas & Panhandle)"},"high":{"market":"ercot-central","name":"ERCOT Central (Houston & DFW)"}},"cost_components":null,"component_status":null,"coverage":"The range spans the 2 locations PowerGridIQ models inside this region: ERCOT West (West Texas & Panhandle), ERCOT Central (Houston & DFW).","not_market_wide":"This is NOT market-wide coverage of every location in this region. It is the range across the locations named in `derived_from`, and a site elsewhere in the region may fall outside it. Use the constituent market records for a location-specific figure.","no_midpoint_reason":"A parent midpoint would assert a typical site for the whole region. PowerGridIQ models specific locations, not a regional average, so no midpoint is published."},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"High","coverage":"Substantial","coverage_dimensions":2,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":3,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability","method":"measured","vintage":"2024","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/"},{"layer":"Forward cost","method":"measured","vintage":"ongoing","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/nerc_ltra_2025.pdf"},{"layer":"Interconnection queue","method":"measured","vintage":"end-2025 (LBNL 2026)","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://emp.lbl.gov/queues"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"High","under_review":true,"thesis":"The benchmark for openness. The Texas grid operator (ERCOT) runs an energy-only market, meaning generators are paid only for the power they deliver, and it lets a large load connect quickly in exchange for accepting occasional cutbacks when the grid is tight. That is the fastest route to power in the United States, cheap gas lets a developer supply its own electricity, and the data-center build is already at scale. Carbon is the only weak spot, and it carries little weight in the default scoring.","pillars":{"access":88,"availability":62,"cost":85,"momentum":80,"carbon":55},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Open and fast. The Texas grid operator (ERCOT) lets a large new load connect quickly and then manages any constraints, on the condition that it can be dialled back when the grid is tight, rather than making it wait years for firm supply. This is one of the quickest paths to power anywhere.","availability":"Tight at peak but workable: summer scarcity is real, but cheap on-site gas (behind-the-meter) floors the practical availability for a developer who can self-supply.","cost":"Cheap power and the cheapest self-supply: low wholesale plus abundant gas make Texas one of the lowest recurring-cost markets for a large load.","momentum":"Proven momentum: more than 1 GW of data-center capacity and widely called 'the next Virginia'; ~233 GW of large-load interconnection requests, over 70% data centers.","carbon":"Carbon is the weak pillar (~310 g), gas-heavy; immaterial in the default lens, but it pulls ERCOT toward Tier 2 under a carbon-weighted buyer."},"offtake_opportunity_index":null,"demand_hunger":null,"build_feasibility":null,"supplier_signals":null,"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Sustained build converts the large-load queue into operating capacity without reliability backlash.","Continued battery and solar additions lower carbon and ease the peak."],"downgrade":["A repeat of a Winter-Storm-Uri-scale reliability event triggers restrictive large-load rules.","Political limits on new large-load interconnection."]},"risks":["Summer scarcity pricing and peak reliability.","Rising large-load concentration could prompt new connection conditions."],"peers":{"like":"Alberta (open, energy-only)","ahead":"Northern Virginia (more open, cheaper)","behind":"none in the US on speed-to-power"},"sources":[{"label":"ERCOT large-load and generation queues","url":"https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource"},{"label":"EIA capacity outlook","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67205"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Aug 2026","type":"Under review","note":"Tier not moved, but the connection pathway that underpins the Access score is paused with no stated end date. A verification gate applied to every data center large load, layered on Batch Zero, is a material change in how fast a large load can reach energization in the market we score as the fastest in the US. Direction is genuinely uncertain: a short verification exercise leaves the tier intact, a durable screening regime does not. Resolve after the PUCT open meeting on 20 Aug 2026.","trigger":"Gov. Abbott directive and ERCOT market notice M-A080326-01, 3 Aug 2026; missed Batch Zero classification date, 7 Aug 2026"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":35,"carbon_intensity_g":320,"renewable_pct":43,"renewable_generation_share_pct":43,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":52,"fuel_mix":{"wind":31,"solar":12,"gas":43,"nuclear":9,"coal":4,"storage":1},"demand_mw":52000,"capacity_mw":120000,"imports_mw":0,"exports_mw":0,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":84760,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"fields":{"reliability":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"not_assessed","connection":"M1 Broad","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","cost":"M3 Project-ready"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["carbon","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","local_capacity","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"ERCOT West (West Texas & Panhandle): not assessed here: local capacity ERCOT Central (Houston & DFW): not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"held","method":"reported"},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion.","assessment":"aggregated_from_constituents","aggregation":"weakest constituent, per field","aggregation_version":"depth-aggregate-1.0","derived_from":["ercot-west","ercot-central"],"why":"This is a summary row covering ERCOT West (West Texas & Panhandle), ERCOT Central (Houston & DFW). It is not separately researched, so its evidence depth is the weakest of its constituent markets rather than an assessment of the summary itself. Screen and compare on the constituent markets, not on this row. local_capacity is not_assessed here by construction: a local-deliverability finding belongs to a bus or a substation and does not aggregate to a region."},"next_review":null,"report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/ercot","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"insufficient_evidence","label":"Insufficient evidence","means":"No band is published because the available evidence does not support one.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."},"overview":{"is_market":false,"row_type":"overview","summarises":["ercot-west","ercot-central"],"what_it_is":"A summary row covering the markets named in `summarises`. It is not separately researched and is excluded from /api/v1/markets, /screen, /best and the ranked cost table.","instead":"Screen, rank and compare on the markets in `summarises`. Fetch each at /api/v1/ratings/{id}.","evidence_depth_note":"Its evidence_depth is the weakest of its constituents, aggregated rather than assessed. local_capacity is not_assessed by construction: local deliverability belongs to a bus, not a region."}}