{"id":"ercot-central","rid":"ERCOT-C","name":"ERCOT Central (Houston & DFW)","flag":"🇺🇸","group":"us","type":"market","parent":"ercot","regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":2,"tier_name":"Strong","score":70,"pillar_score":78,"pillar_tier":2,"pillar_tier_name":"Strong","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"elevated","dock":8,"provisional":false,"confidence":"High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"ERCOT-wide assessment applied to the Central sub-region: Winter Storm Uri (Feb 2021) forced about 20,000 MW of rolling blackouts, the largest manual load shed in US history; post-Uri winterization has improved winter performance but the tail risk remains. The Houston and DFW load pockets have robust local transmission, a deliverability strength captured in the access pillar.","sources":[{"label":"FERC/NERC Feb 2021 cold weather final report","url":"https://www.ferc.gov/news-events/news/final-report-february-2021-freeze-underscores-winterization-recommendations"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"elevated","measure":"assessed","note":"NERC's 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment rates ERCOT elevated-risk grid-wide: about 20 GW of new large loads plus a more variable resource mix raise the risk of long-term shortfalls across the interconnection.","sources":[{"label":"NERC 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment","url":"https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/2024-ltra_corrected_july_2025.pdf"}]},"read":"Reliability flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":8,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"favourable","direction":"stable","why":"The same open, energy-only connect-and-manage framework as ERCOT statewide, applied where the transmission is robust and the load pockets are well served.","what_would_change_it":"Restrictive new large-load interconnection rules following a major reliability event.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0","beyond_the_grid":{"text":"Water and community consent bind in Central Texas: the San Antonio to Austin corridor quadrupled data-centre development from 2023 to 2025 as Edwards Aquifer levels hit historic lows, Hays County advocates are protesting five proposed sites, and San Marcos City Council voted a data centre down outright.","sources":[{"label":"KUT","url":"https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2026-02-26/hays-county-tx-data-centers-water-resources"},{"label":"TPR","url":"https://www.tpr.org/news/2026-04-29/greater-edwards-aquifer-authority-report-sounds-the-alarm-over-proposed-data-centers-in-texas"}]},"for_new_supply":"The same fast energy-only build path, applied where transmission is robust and the load pockets are well served."},"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":null,"friction":{"level":"Low","wait":"1-2 years","measure":"proxy","has_detail":true},"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":true,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"triangulated","territory_count":3},"reliability_metrics":{"saidi_min":98.33,"saidi_year":"2024","forward_adequacy":null,"measure":"historical utility-territory delivery performance","standard":"MIXED","standard_note":"mixed methods: IEEE 44%; respondent-defined 56% of customers. Major event days are excluded throughout; the methods differ only in how those days are identified, a smaller difference than the spread between the utilities themselves. Constituents below carry their own standard.","evidence_role":"market_context","by_serving_utility":[{"customers":4013062,"saidi_minutes":67.28,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"Oncor Electric Delivery Company LLC","utility_id":44372,"weight":0.5589},{"customers":2847806,"saidi_minutes":150.09,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"CenterPoint Energy","utility_id":8901,"weight":0.3966},{"customers":319523,"saidi_minutes":26.9,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"TX","utility":"Denton County Elec Coop, Inc","utility_id":5078,"weight":0.0445}],"evidence_role_basis":"comparison and monitoring only: a customer-weighted regional blend is not the record of the utility that would serve a specific site"},"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":55,"mid_usd_per_mwh":72,"high_usd_per_mwh":95,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"triangulated","public_fragments":2,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes","cost_components":[{"name":"Wholesale energy","usd_per_mwh":52,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"ERCOT 2024 State of the Market (Potomac Economics)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://www.potomaceconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2024-State-of-the-Market-Report.pdf","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["energy"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Transmission & delivery (4CP)","usd_per_mwh":15,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"ERCOT 2024 State of the Market (Potomac Economics)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://www.potomaceconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2024-State-of-the-Market-Report.pdf","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories, covering transmission, distribution, demand_charges in one line","confidence":"bundled_allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned, and covering more than one cost category in a single line. Neither the total nor the split within it was separately observed.","covers_categories":["transmission","distribution","demand_charges"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Ancillary services","usd_per_mwh":5,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"ERCOT 2024 State of the Market (Potomac Economics)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://www.potomaceconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2024-State-of-the-Market-Report.pdf","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["ancillary"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"}],"component_status":{"arithmetic_integrity":true,"evidence_reconciliation":"not_independently_reconciled","independently_sourced_lines":0,"total_lines":3,"bundled":[{"name":"Transmission & delivery (4CP)","combines":["transmission","distribution","demand-related network charges"],"note":"Reported as one line. These elements have not been independently sourced or separately reconciled."}],"text":"The delivered-cost band is the compiled result. The component lines are an estimated allocation of its midpoint, not separately observed figures.","provenance_summary":{"by_state":{"estimated_allocation":3},"usd_by_state":{"estimated_allocation":72},"evidenced_share_pct":0,"lines_awaiting_evidence":["Wholesale energy","Transmission & delivery (4CP)","Ancillary services"],"what_would_close_them":"A separately sourced or tariff-derived figure for each category, with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not these lines.","version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"category_coverage":{"energy":{"status":"estimated","line":"Wholesale energy","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced wholesale or tariff energy figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"capacity":{"status":"not_applicable","reason":"Energy-only market: no capacity construct to price."},"transmission":{"status":"bundled","line":"Transmission & delivery (4CP)","combined_with":["distribution","demand_charges"],"line_is_sourced":false,"line_provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","source":null,"source_url":null,"effective":null,"formula":null,"missing_evidence":"A separate transmission figure, or a sourced apportionment of the Transmission & delivery (4CP) line."},"distribution":{"status":"bundled","line":"Transmission & delivery (4CP)","combined_with":["transmission","demand_charges"],"line_is_sourced":false,"line_provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","source":null,"source_url":null,"effective":null,"formula":null,"missing_evidence":"A separate distribution figure, or a sourced apportionment of the Transmission & delivery (4CP) line."},"demand_charges":{"status":"bundled","line":"Transmission & delivery (4CP)","combined_with":["transmission","distribution"],"line_is_sourced":false,"line_provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","source":null,"source_url":null,"effective":null,"formula":null,"missing_evidence":"A separate demand charges figure, or a sourced apportionment of the Transmission & delivery (4CP) line."},"ancillary":{"status":"estimated","line":"Ancillary services","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced ancillary services and uplift figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"riders":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No riders and unavoidable regulatory charges figure is held for this market."},"carbon":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No carbon-related charges figure is held for this market."},"taxes":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No recurring taxes figure is held for this market."},"connection_capital":{"status":"not_applicable","reason":"Outside the recurring $/MWh boundary by definition."}},"category_vocabulary_version":"cost-categories-1.0","capacity_cross_check":null,"method_version":"cost-components-1.0"},"component_source":["ERCOT 2024 State of the Market (Potomac Economics)","https://www.potomaceconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2024-State-of-the-Market-Report.pdf"]},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":1,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability","method":"measured","vintage":"2024","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/"},{"layer":"Connection friction","method":"proxy","vintage":"2025/26","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"triangulated","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://modoenergy.com/research/en/ercot-power-prices-2024-energy-arbitrage-ancillary-services-hub-load-zone-west-north-south-houston-panhandle"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"High","under_review":true,"thesis":"The deliverable half of Texas: the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth load pockets sit close to generation on a robust transmission network, so power actually reaches the site. It costs more than the wind-rich west, but it is where the large data-center corridors are and where a firm 24/7 load should look first.","pillars":{"access":82,"availability":64,"cost":80,"momentum":88,"carbon":45},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Strong access: Houston and North (DFW) have low congestion, generation sited near demand, and more robust transmission than the west, plus ERCOT's fast connect-and-manage energization.","availability":"Availability is workable with cheap self-supply gas; the load pockets are gas-served and dense.","cost":"Higher cost than the west, but still low by national standards; deliverability is the reason to pay it.","momentum":"Highest momentum in ERCOT: the DFW and Houston corridors anchor the Texas data-center build.","carbon":"Carbon is the weak pillar (gas-heavy load pockets), immaterial in the default lens."},"offtake_opportunity_index":100,"demand_hunger":48,"build_feasibility":91,"supplier_signals":null,"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Continued DFW and Houston build converts the queue into operating capacity.","Battery and solar additions ease the summer peak."],"downgrade":["Load-pocket congestion rises as demand concentrates.","A Winter-Storm-Uri-scale event triggers restrictive large-load rules."]},"risks":["Summer scarcity pricing and peak reliability.","Rising large-load concentration in the corridors."],"peers":{"like":"ERCOT West (same market, cheaper)","ahead":"on deliverability and momentum","behind":"on cost and carbon"},"sources":[{"label":"ERCOT 2024 load-zone prices, Houston and North low congestion (Modo Energy)","url":"https://modoenergy.com/research/en/ercot-power-prices-2024-energy-arbitrage-ancillary-services-hub-load-zone-west-north-south-houston-panhandle"},{"label":"Texas data centers drive demand (EIA)","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63344"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 2 Strong assigned (ERCOT Central sub-region).","trigger":null},"grid":null,"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M3 Project-ready","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"held","method":"measured"},"contractual_service":{"state":"held","method":"reported"},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2026-11-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/ercot-central","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"independently_compiled","label":"Independently compiled","means":"The band is assembled from multiple sourced, dated and applicable published figures. It is not a single benchmark and it is not a tariff reconstruction.","reproducible":"partially"},"component":{"total_lines":3,"reproducible_lines":0,"states":["estimated_allocation"],"all_lines_are_estimated_allocations":true,"independently_reproducible":false,"illustrative":true,"notice":"Illustrative allocation of the compiled midpoint. Component lines are not separately sourced and should not be interpreted as observed tariff charges.","notice_short":"Illustrative allocation — lines not separately sourced","vocabulary_version":"evidence-layers-1.0"},"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}