{"id":"indonesia","rid":"ID","name":"Indonesia","flag":"🇮🇩","group":"asia","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":3,"tier_name":"Workable","score":50,"pillar_score":54,"pillar_tier":3,"pillar_tier_name":"Workable","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":4,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"The Batam grid needs reinforcement to keep pace with ramping data centers, with warnings that connection queues could reach 24 months without coordinated upgrades.","sources":[{"label":"Indonesia data-center boom meets energy reality (PetroRaya)","url":"https://www.petroraya.com/article/indonesias-data-center-boom-meets-an-energy-reality/"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"modelled","note":"Grids outside Java often lack hyperscale-grade reliability, a risk to uptime for a large new load, though PLN's 2025-2034 plan adds significant capacity.","sources":[{"label":"Indonesia data-center boom meets energy reality (PetroRaya)","url":"https://www.petroraya.com/article/indonesias-data-center-boom-meets-an-energy-reality/"}]},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":4,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"mixed","direction":"stable","why":"PLN is signing record data-centre PPAs (the 450 MW Batam deal), but connection queues could reach 24 months and grids outside Java lack hyperscale-grade reliability.","what_would_change_it":"PLN grid reinforcement clearing the Batam queue and lifting outside-Java reliability.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0","beyond_the_grid":{"text":"Water siting is the emerging constraint: Batam's data centres depend on rainfall-fed reservoirs, one planned cluster alone would need about 29 million litres a day, and existing plus planned sites could take roughly 8 percent of the island's water supply.","sources":[{"label":"Jakarta Post","url":"https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2026/04/07/indonesias-data-center-boom-raises-alarm-over-water-use.html"},{"label":"Earth Journalism Network","url":"https://earthjournalism.net/stories/a-digital-boom-in-a-thirsty-indonesian-city"}]},"for_new_supply":"PLN is signing record data-centre PPAs, the clearest new-supply opening, though outside-Java reliability and Batam's water limit where it can land."},"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"2026 to 2027","event":"DayOne's roughly 450 MW Batam campus energizes in phases","why":"Indonesia's largest data-center power deal; a live test of Batam grid reinforcement and the connection queue.","source":{"label":"w.media","url":"https://w.media/dayone-inks-indonesias-largest-power-deal-for-its-batam-data-center/"}}],"queue":null,"friction":{"level":"Moderate","wait":"1-2 years (Batam)","measure":"proxy","has_detail":true},"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"administered","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":62,"mid_usd_per_mwh":72,"high_usd_per_mwh":90,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"administered","public_fragments":1,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes"},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":1,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"historical","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.petroraya.com/article/indonesias-data-center-boom-meets-an-energy-reality/"},{"layer":"Connection friction","method":"proxy","vintage":"2025/26","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2026/04/07/indonesias-data-center-boom-raises-alarm-over-water-use.html"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"measured","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Indonesia/electricity_prices/"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med","under_review":false,"thesis":"Cheap, coal-backed PLN power and a booming Batam data-centre cluster, including the country's largest power deal. The drawbacks are weak grid reliability outside Java, long connection queues, and a high-carbon mix.","pillars":{"access":45,"availability":42,"cost":72,"momentum":82,"carbon":22},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Constrained access: Batam connection queues could reach 24 months without upgrades, and grids outside Java often lack hyperscale-grade reliability, though PLN is signing record data-center PPAs.","availability":"Weak availability for hyperscale outside Java; the Batam grid needs reinforcement to keep pace with ramping sites.","cost":"Cheap cost: PLN's regulated industrial tariff is low (around 1,000 rupiah per kWh), helped by coal and subsidies.","momentum":"Very high momentum: a 450 MW DayOne power deal in Batam, Indonesia's largest, and a fast-growing Nongsa/Batam cluster.","carbon":"High carbon: a coal-heavy grid, though the 2025-2034 plan targets 76% renewables in new capacity."},"offtake_opportunity_index":83,"demand_hunger":54,"build_feasibility":59,"supplier_signals":null,"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["PLN grid reinforcement and the RUPTL renewables build ease reliability and carbon.","More record data-center PPAs convert the Batam pipeline."],"downgrade":["Connection queues and outside-Java reliability stall hyperscale ramps.","Coal dependence keeps carbon high."]},"risks":["Grid reliability and connection queues outside Java.","High carbon intensity."],"peers":{"like":"Thailand and Malaysia (cheap, fast-growing Southeast Asian grids)","ahead":"on cost and momentum","behind":"on reliability and carbon"},"sources":[{"label":"DayOne 450 MW Batam data-center power deal (w.media)","url":"https://w.media/dayone-inks-indonesias-largest-power-deal-for-its-batam-data-center/"},{"label":"Indonesia data-center boom meets energy reality (PetroRaya)","url":"https://www.petroraya.com/article/indonesias-data-center-boom-meets-an-energy-reality/"},{"label":"PLN RUPTL 2025-2034 renewables plan (IEEFA)","url":"https://ieefa.org/resources/risks-fossil-fuel-dependence-indonesias-electricity-supply-business-plan-ruptl-2025-0"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 3 Workable assigned.","trigger":null},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":null,"carbon_intensity_g":625,"renewable_pct":18,"renewable_generation_share_pct":18,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":18,"fuel_mix":{"coal":62,"gas":17,"hydro":7,"biofuel":6,"geo":5,"oil":3},"demand_mw":39258,"capacity_mw":100600,"imports_mw":0,"exports_mw":0,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":61242,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"no_wholesale_market","price_absent_reason":"No wholesale spot market. PLN is a single buyer and the government sets tariffs, so there is no clearing price to report. A number in this field would describe something the market does not have.","price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M2 Compiled","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"modelled"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2026-10-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/indonesia","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"estimated","label":"Estimated","means":"The band is an analyst estimate against a stated reasoning, not a sourced figure.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}