{"id":"ireland","rid":"IE","name":"Ireland (Dublin)","flag":"🇮🇪","group":"europe","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":5,"tier_name":"Largely closed","score":32,"pillar_score":37,"pillar_tier":5,"pillar_tier_name":"Largely closed","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"elevated","dock":5,"provisional":false,"confidence":"High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"none"},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"elevated","measure":"event-based","note":"Tight adequacy: EirGrid warns of possible Amber system alerts at low-wind, low-import evening peaks, and the system leans on temporary emergency generation plus protocols under which large users (mostly data centres) cut demand by up to 75% in an emergency. Data-center demand is the core driver, which is why grid-only connection around Dublin is gated.","sources":[{"label":"EirGrid winter adequacy outlook","url":"https://www.eirgrid.ie/news/new-eirgrid-forecast-shows-low-potential-system-alerts-winter-due-insufficient-generation"}]},"read":"Reliability flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":5,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"adverse","direction":"improving","why":"The Dublin data-centre connection moratorium was lifted in December 2025, but only for projects that self-generate or store their full demand; grid-only connection stays effectively closed in the east.","what_would_change_it":"EirGrid confirming that conditional connections genuinely reopen grid access for large loads, not just self-supply.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0","beyond_the_grid":{"text":"Community and resource pressure underlies the grid limit: data centres' large and rising share of national electricity has made them a sustained political flashpoint, which is the backdrop to the connection restrictions.","sources":[{"label":"DCD","url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/analysis/dublin-and-data-centers-the-end-of-the-road/"}]},"for_new_supply":"New grid-connected supply faces the same congestion; the near-term route is on-site or stored generation that lets a load self-supply, the condition under which Dublin connections reopened."},"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"2026","event":"EirGrid assesses conditional self-supply connections under the new Large Energy Users policy","why":"Determines whether grid access genuinely reopens in the constrained east, or stays effectively closed.","source":{"label":"CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry","url":"https://www.williamfry.com/knowledge/cru-publishes-long-awaited-final-policy-on-data-centre-connections/"}}],"queue":{"active_gw":5,"wait_months":null,"has_detail":true,"wait_band":"4-5 years"},"friction":null,"connection_pathway":{"operator":"EirGrid and ESB Networks","role":"system operator and distribution operator","process":"Large Energy User connection assessment","note":"Dublin-area constraints are explicit policy, not queue congestion.","url":"https://www.eirgrid.ie/customer-connections"},"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":true,"local_capacity_state":"published_checkable","local_capacity_depth":4,"cost_basis":"modelled","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":130,"mid_usd_per_mwh":150,"high_usd_per_mwh":180,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"modelled","public_fragments":2,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes","cost_components":[{"name":"Wholesale energy","usd_per_mwh":88,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"modelled","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["energy"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Network & constraint charges","usd_per_mwh":45,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"modelled","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":null,"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Taxes & levies","usd_per_mwh":17,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"modelled","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["taxes"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"}],"component_status":{"arithmetic_integrity":true,"evidence_reconciliation":"not_independently_reconciled","independently_sourced_lines":0,"total_lines":3,"bundled":[],"text":"The delivered-cost band is the compiled result. The component lines are an estimated allocation of its midpoint, not separately observed figures.","provenance_summary":{"by_state":{"estimated_allocation":3},"usd_by_state":{"estimated_allocation":150},"evidenced_share_pct":0,"lines_awaiting_evidence":["Wholesale energy","Network & constraint charges","Taxes & levies"],"what_would_close_them":"A separately sourced or tariff-derived figure for each category, with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not these lines.","version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"category_coverage":{"energy":{"status":"estimated","line":"Wholesale energy","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced wholesale or tariff energy figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"capacity":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No capacity or resource adequacy figure is held for this market."},"transmission":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No transmission figure is held for this market."},"distribution":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No distribution figure is held for this market."},"demand_charges":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No demand charges figure is held for this market."},"ancillary":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No ancillary services and uplift figure is held for this market."},"riders":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No riders and unavoidable regulatory charges figure is held for this market."},"carbon":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No carbon-related charges figure is held for this market."},"taxes":{"status":"estimated","line":"Taxes & levies","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced recurring taxes figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"connection_capital":{"status":"not_applicable","reason":"Outside the recurring $/MWh boundary by definition."}},"category_vocabulary_version":"cost-categories-1.0","capacity_cross_check":null,"method_version":"cost-components-1.0"},"component_source":["EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics"]},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":{"label":"Verified network, levy and tax layers only","eur_per_mwh":35.5717,"eur_per_mwh_high":35.6876,"currency":"EUR","usd_per_mwh":null,"why_no_usd":"This repository has no established currency-conversion convention, and selecting one inside a single market's reconstruction would set a product-wide convention as a side effect. Ireland is therefore published in euro, as filed, and the conversion question is left open rather than answered here.","is_complete_delivered_cost":false,"covers":["transmission network capacity (EirGrid DTS-T Demand Network Capacity Charge)","transmission network transfer (Demand Network Transfer Charge)","system services (Demand System Services Charge, peak and non-peak)","the Public Service Obligation levy (CRU decision, Medium & Large Commercial)","Electricity Tax at the business-use rate (Revenue Commissioners)"],"does_not_cover":["wholesale energy (the SEM day-ahead and balancing markets)","supplier margin, hedging and contract structure","distribution use of system -- which does not arise at DTS-T, because the archetype is directly connected to the transmission system","connection capital contributions and the Large Energy User connection process","constraint and imbalance exposure"],"provenance_state":"tariff_derived","statement":"PowerGridIQ can verify EUR 35.57 to EUR 35.69/MWh of current Irish network, levy and tax charges for the standard archetype, from three primaries: EirGrid's filed Statement of Charges for transmission use of system, the CRU's Public Service Obligation decision for the levy, and the Revenue Commissioners for Electricity Tax. It excludes wholesale energy and supplier margin, and it is not a delivered cost.","must_not_be_used_as":["a delivered-cost total","a cost-band midpoint or either of its ends","a replacement for the published Ireland band","an input to the cost pillar","a figure comparable with another market's delivered cost"],"components":[{"name":"Demand Network Capacity Charge","eur_per_mwh":[2.782,2.8979],"rate":"EUR 2,009.7013/MW per calendar month","billing_determinant":"Charging Capacity, 96 to 100 MW for this archetype","formula":"EUR 2,009.7013/MW x Charging Capacity x 12 / 832,200 MWh","provenance_state":"tariff_derived"},{"name":"Demand Network Transfer Charge","eur_per_mwh":4.09,"rate":"EUR 4.0900/MWh","billing_determinant":"Metered Consumption Energy","provenance_state":"tariff_derived"},{"name":"Demand System Services Charge","eur_per_mwh":26.6903,"rate":"EUR 29.1167/MWh peak (17:00-19:00), EUR 26.4697/MWh non-peak","billing_determinant":"Metered Consumption Energy, split by time of use","formula":"energy-weighted over 730 peak hours and 8,030 non-peak hours","provenance_state":"tariff_derived"},{"name":"Public Service Obligation levy","eur_per_mwh":1.0094,"rate":"EUR 0.70/kVA per month (Medium & Large Commercial)","billing_determinant":"Maximum Import Capacity in kVA, not energy","formula":"EUR 0.70/kVA x 100,000 kVA x 12 / 832,200 MWh","source":"CRU Decision Paper CRU2026107, Public Service Obligation Levy 2026/27, which states the rate it replaces","note":"Because the charge is on capacity, the archetype's 95% load factor makes this the cheapest it can be per MWh. A 50% load factor site with the same 100 MW MIC would pay roughly double per MWh, on an identical bill.","provenance_state":"tariff_derived"},{"name":"Electricity Tax (business use)","eur_per_mwh":1,"rate":"EUR 1.00/MWh","billing_determinant":"energy supplied, business-use rate","source":"Revenue Commissioners, Electricity Tax rates","note":"This layer is therefore an UPPER bound on the tax for the archetype: EUR 1.00/MWh is what is charged before any relief. Stated so that a reader with a qualifying supply contract knows there is room below it, rather than reading EUR 1.00 as final.","provenance_state":"tariff_derived"}],"source":{"publisher":"EirGrid","document":"Statement of Charges 2025/2026 v1.0","published":"2025-09-15","effective":"2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30","approved_under":"Section 36 of the Electricity Regulation Act 1999, as amended, by the Commission for Regulation of Utilities","url":"https://cms.eirgrid.ie/sites/default/files/publications/2025-2026-Statement-of-Charges.pdf"},"vintage_warning":"CURRENT UNTIL 30 SEPTEMBER 2026, AND ALREADY SUCCEEDED. An earlier draft of this module said the successor was 'published mid-September, within days of this read'. That was wrong: the CRU approved the 2026/27 transmission tariffs on 29 JULY 2026, six weeks before this read, in a document separate from the EirGrid statement. The EirGrid statement is the easier document to find; the CRU decision is the one that sets the rates. See TARIFF_YEAR_2026_27.","scheduled_change":{"effective":"2026-10-01","through":"2027-09-30","eur_per_mwh":33.6144,"eur_per_mwh_high":33.7587,"change_pct":-5.5,"electricity_tax_unchanged":true,"pso_change_pct":-66,"pso_eur_per_mwh":0.3461,"decided":"2026-07-29","decided_by":"Commission for Regulation of Utilities","url":"https://www.cru.ie/publications/29157/","note":"The Network Capacity Charge rises 24.5% and the total falls 3.9%. That is not a contradiction: the capacity charge is under EUR 3 of a EUR 33 bill, while system services is EUR 26.69 and falls 9.4%. A reader who tracked 'the transmission capacity tariff' would have recorded a 24.5% increase in a year when the archetype's transmission cost went DOWN.","status":"decided, not yet in force; the figure above is the tariff currently applying"},"corroboration":{"second_source":"CRU Information Paper CRU2026112, Appendix A.3, Tables 11 and 12","rates_agreeing":4,"significance":"A transcription error in the first read would have survived every internal gate, because every gate recomputes from the same transcribed numbers. Only a second document can catch that, and this one does: all four 2025/26 rates match exactly."},"next_action":"Source the remaining two lines -- wholesale energy and taxes and levies -- to the same standard, then rebuild the band from sourced lines. Adjusting the existing allocation toward this partial instead would be a partial presented as a bound.","evidence_module":"ireland_tuos_evidence.py","version":"ireland-tuos-1.0"},"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":1,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"assessed","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eirgrid.ie/news/new-eirgrid-forecast-shows-low-potential-system-alerts-winter-due-insufficient-generation"},{"layer":"Interconnection queue","method":"measured","vintage":"end-2025 (LBNL 2026)","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://cms.eirgrid.ie/sites/default/files/publications/ECP-2.5%20Assumptions%20Document.pdf"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"modelled","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"High","under_review":true,"thesis":"Grid-only connection is effectively closed around Dublin; viable only with full on-site generation. The clearest hard gate in the set. The outlook is positive only because the 2025 policy reset opened a narrow, self-supply-conditioned path.","pillars":{"access":22,"availability":38,"cost":39,"momentum":55,"carbon":54},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Hard access gate: a 2021-2025 freeze on new Dublin data-center grid connections was lifted in late 2025 only for projects that self-generate or store their full demand. Grid-only connection stays effectively closed in the east.","availability":"Tight availability: a small, constrained system with data centers already ~22% of national demand.","cost":"Expensive power.","momentum":"Historically high momentum (a FLAP-D hub), now gated.","carbon":"Moderate carbon (~340 g), gas-led."},"offtake_opportunity_index":10,"demand_hunger":60,"build_feasibility":4,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":55,"bess_arbitrage_pct":62,"solar_capture_pct":99,"wind_capture_pct":100,"effective_competing_supply_gw":3.5},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["The self-supply pathway and green energy parks unlock new regional capacity.","Offshore wind and grid build relieve the eastern constraint."],"downgrade":["The gate tightens or self-supply economics fail to pencil.","Continued moratorium pressure."]},"risks":["Policy gate and self-supply requirement.","System tightness with data centers at ~22% of demand."],"peers":{"like":"Singapore (major hub, near-closed)","ahead":"few","behind":"most open markets"},"sources":[{"label":"Ireland ends moratorium, Energy Connects","url":"https://www.energyconnects.com/news/utilities/2025/december/ireland-ends-moratorium-on-new-power-links-to-data-centers/"},{"label":"Data centres 22% of demand, CSO","url":"https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-dcmec/datacentresmeteredelectricityconsumption2024/"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Jun 2026","type":"Under review","note":"The connection-moratorium lift is placed under review. Whether conditional, self-supply connections materially reopen access is being assessed; direction uncertain, with an upgrade path if access genuinely improves.","trigger":"Ireland lifts the Dublin moratorium with conditions (Dec 2025)"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":88,"carbon_intensity_g":270,"renewable_pct":54,"renewable_generation_share_pct":54,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":54,"fuel_mix":{"wind":38,"gas":42,"coal":4,"hydro":3,"solar":3,"biofuel":10},"demand_mw":6000,"capacity_mw":14000,"imports_mw":800,"exports_mw":200,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":8520,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M1 Broad","connection":"M3 Project-ready","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"M4 Local"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"held","method":"reported"},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-04-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/ireland","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"independently_compiled","label":"Independently compiled","means":"The band is assembled from multiple sourced, dated and applicable published figures. It is not a single benchmark and it is not a tariff reconstruction.","reproducible":"partially"},"component":{"total_lines":3,"reproducible_lines":0,"states":["estimated_allocation"],"all_lines_are_estimated_allocations":true,"independently_reproducible":false,"illustrative":true,"notice":"Illustrative allocation of the compiled midpoint. Component lines are not separately sourced and should not be interpreted as observed tariff charges.","notice_short":"Illustrative allocation — lines not separately sourced","vocabulary_version":"evidence-layers-1.0"},"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}