{"id":"japan","rid":"JP","name":"Japan","flag":"🇯🇵","group":"asia","type":"overview","parent":null,"regions":["japan-east","japan-west"],"tier_range":"3-4","tier":3,"tier_name":"Workable","score":47,"pillar_score":51,"pillar_tier":3,"pillar_tier_name":"Workable","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":4,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med-High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"none"},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"National roll-up of the east-west split: the 50Hz east issued Japan's first power shortage warnings in 2022 and stays structurally tight with only ~1.2 GW of frequency-converter links (rising toward 3 GW by 2027) to the western surplus; the 60Hz west is comfortable. Tokyo-bound load carries the eastern risk; see JP-E / JP-W.","sources":[{"label":"Tokyo first-ever power shortage warning 2022 (Nippon.com)","url":"https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00825/"},{"label":"Japan east-west converter capacity (Wikipedia)","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Japan"}]},"regional_docks":{"japan-east":7,"japan-west":0},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":4,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":null,"friction":null,"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":null,"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":null,"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype, but PowerGridIQ does not publish one for this market yet.","user_action":"There is no band to use here today. The inputs are observable, so this is our work to finish rather than evidence you need to gather -- do not engage the utility on our behalf, and do not treat the absence as a finding about the market. Read cost_evidence_state.remedy for what is outstanding.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":false},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Limited","coverage":"Partial","coverage_dimensions":1,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":0,"data_layers":1,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"assessed","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00825/"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med","under_review":false,"thesis":"Tokyo is a top-five global hub and nuclear restarts are easing supply, but power is among the most expensive anywhere and island-grid access is constrained.","pillars":{"access":55,"availability":58,"cost":25,"momentum":70,"carbon":36},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Constrained island-grid access (OCCTO).","availability":"Improving availability as nuclear restarts (15 reactors back, ~33 GW).","cost":"Very high cost.","momentum":"High momentum (Tokyo).","carbon":"Carbon moderate-high (~450 g), LNG/coal."},"offtake_opportunity_index":null,"demand_hunger":null,"build_feasibility":null,"supplier_signals":null,"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Nuclear restarts displace LNG and lower cost/carbon.","Continued Tokyo build."],"downgrade":["High power cost persists.","Island-grid constraints."]},"risks":["Power cost.","Grid interconnection."],"peers":{"like":"constrained pricey hubs","ahead":"on momentum","behind":"on cost"},"sources":[{"label":"Japan nuclear restarts, WNA","url":"https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/japan-nuclear-power"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Jul 2026","type":"Affirmed","note":"National score moves 51 to 47 as the overview now carries the average of its regions' reliability adjustments (East 7, West 0) instead of an unapplied national dock. Tier 3 affirmed; the region ratings are unchanged.","trigger":"Overview reliability-adjustment consistency (methodology note, Jul 2026)"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":120,"carbon_intensity_g":450,"renewable_pct":23,"renewable_generation_share_pct":23,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":32,"fuel_mix":{"gas":38,"coal":28,"nuclear":9,"solar":10,"hydro":8,"biofuel":4,"wind":1,"oil":2},"demand_mw":78000,"capacity_mw":200000,"imports_mw":0,"exports_mw":0,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":115440,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","cost","reliability"],"fields":{"reliability":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"not_assessed","connection":"M1 Broad","regulatory":"not_assessed","carbon":"M2 Compiled","cost":"M1 Broad"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","cost"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","cost","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","cost","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["carbon","connection","cost","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","cost","local_capacity","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"Japan East (Tokyo, 50Hz): not assessed here: local capacity Japan West (Osaka, 60Hz): not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"local_delivery":{"state":"held","method":"measured"},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion.","assessment":"aggregated_from_constituents","aggregation":"weakest constituent, per field","aggregation_version":"depth-aggregate-1.0","derived_from":["japan-east","japan-west"],"why":"This is a summary row covering Japan East (Tokyo, 50Hz), Japan West (Osaka, 60Hz). It is not separately researched, so its evidence depth is the weakest of its constituent markets rather than an assessment of the summary itself. Screen and compare on the constituent markets, not on this row. local_capacity is not_assessed here by construction: a local-deliverability finding belongs to a bus or a substation and does not aggregate to a region."},"next_review":null,"report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/japan","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"insufficient_evidence","label":"Insufficient evidence","means":"No band is published because the available evidence does not support one.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."},"overview":{"is_market":false,"row_type":"overview","summarises":["japan-east","japan-west"],"what_it_is":"A summary row covering the markets named in `summarises`. It is not separately researched and is excluded from /api/v1/markets, /screen, /best and the ranked cost table.","instead":"Screen, rank and compare on the markets in `summarises`. Fetch each at /api/v1/ratings/{id}.","evidence_depth_note":"Its evidence_depth is the weakest of its constituents, aggregated rather than assessed. local_capacity is not_assessed by construction: local deliverability belongs to a bus, not a region."}}