{"id":"netherlands","rid":"DE2","name":"Netherlands","flag":"🇳🇱","group":"europe","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":4,"tier_name":"Constrained","score":38,"pillar_score":41,"pillar_tier":4,"pillar_tier_name":"Constrained","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":3,"provisional":false,"confidence":"High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"none","measure":"measured","note":"Delivery reliability on the existing grid is good; the binding problem is connection access, not outages."},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"assessed","note":"Severe grid congestion: TenneT's offtake waiting list runs to roughly 38 GW across 212 requests, new large loads cannot connect in much of the country, and operators warn of local overloading from 2026. The connection-access dimension is already in the Access pillar; this flags the delivery-expansion and overload risk.","sources":[{"label":"Netherlands grid congestion (RAP)","url":"https://www.raponline.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/RAP-Pato-Netherlands-gridlock-2024.pdf"}]},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":3,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"adverse","direction":"stable","why":"Courts continue to uphold the TenneT connection waiting list, over 14,000 businesses are queued, and grid-only connection is unavailable in much of the country.","what_would_change_it":"The government's eight-measure campaign actually freeing 5 to 10 GW of capacity by 2030.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0","beyond_the_grid":{"text":"Non-grid permitting is also binding: the country paused new hyperscale builds partly over land use and water, a farmers' group has appealed a Microsoft data-centre permit, and Amsterdam now makes heat reuse a mandatory condition of new data-centre permits.","sources":[{"label":"IDC","url":"https://www.idc-a.org/news/The-Netherlands-temporarily-bans-the-construction-of-new-hyperscale-data-centers"},{"label":"DCD","url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/farmers-group-files-appeal-against-microsofts-dutch-data-center-permit/"}]},"for_new_supply":"New generation sits in the same queue; the state's eight-measure push to free 5 to 10 GW by 2030 is the opening to watch."},"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"By 2030","event":"Dutch government targets freeing 5 to 10 GW of grid capacity via its eight-measure campaign","why":"Whether congestion eases enough for new large connections in the currently-full core.","source":{"label":"Parliamentary letter on grid congestion, Stibbe (Feb 2026)","url":"https://www.stibbe.com/publications-and-insights/parliamentary-letter-on-grid-congestion-eight-measures-for-better"}}],"queue":{"active_gw":38,"wait_months":null,"has_detail":true,"wait_band":"5+ years"},"friction":null,"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"constrained","local_capacity_depth":4,"cost_basis":"triangulated","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":{"saidi_min":23.9,"saidi_year":"2024","forward_adequacy":null,"measure":"historical utility-territory delivery performance","standard":null,"standard_note":null,"evidence_role":"market_context","by_serving_utility":[],"evidence_role_basis":"national average across Dutch DSOs"},"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":108,"mid_usd_per_mwh":125,"high_usd_per_mwh":150,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"triangulated","public_fragments":2,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes","cost_components":[{"name":"Wholesale energy","usd_per_mwh":75,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["energy"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Network charges","usd_per_mwh":40,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories, covering transmission, distribution in one line","confidence":"bundled_allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned, and covering more than one cost category in a single line. Neither the total nor the split within it was separately observed.","covers_categories":["transmission","distribution"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Taxes & levies","usd_per_mwh":10,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["taxes"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"}],"component_status":{"arithmetic_integrity":true,"evidence_reconciliation":"not_independently_reconciled","independently_sourced_lines":0,"total_lines":3,"bundled":[],"text":"The delivered-cost band is the compiled result. The component lines are an estimated allocation of its midpoint, not separately observed figures.","provenance_summary":{"by_state":{"estimated_allocation":3},"usd_by_state":{"estimated_allocation":125},"evidenced_share_pct":0,"lines_awaiting_evidence":["Wholesale energy","Network charges","Taxes & levies"],"what_would_close_them":"A separately sourced or tariff-derived figure for each category, with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not these lines.","version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"category_coverage":{"energy":{"status":"estimated","line":"Wholesale energy","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced wholesale or tariff energy figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"capacity":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No capacity or resource adequacy figure is held for this market."},"transmission":{"status":"bundled","line":"Network charges","combined_with":["distribution"],"line_is_sourced":false,"line_provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","source":null,"source_url":null,"effective":null,"formula":null,"missing_evidence":"A separate transmission figure, or a sourced apportionment of the Network charges line."},"distribution":{"status":"bundled","line":"Network charges","combined_with":["transmission"],"line_is_sourced":false,"line_provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","source":null,"source_url":null,"effective":null,"formula":null,"missing_evidence":"A separate distribution figure, or a sourced apportionment of the Network charges line."},"demand_charges":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No demand charges figure is held for this market."},"ancillary":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No ancillary services and uplift figure is held for this market."},"riders":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No riders and unavoidable regulatory charges figure is held for this market."},"carbon":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No carbon-related charges figure is held for this market."},"taxes":{"status":"estimated","line":"Taxes & levies","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced recurring taxes figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"connection_capital":{"status":"not_applicable","reason":"Outside the recurring $/MWh boundary by definition."}},"category_vocabulary_version":"cost-categories-1.0","capacity_cross_check":null,"method_version":"cost-components-1.0"},"component_source":["EU electricity price components (Eurostat)","https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics"]},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"High","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":2,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability","method":"measured","vintage":"2024","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.netbeheernederland.nl/sites/default/files/2025-04/03.02._betrouwbaarheid_van_elektriciteitsnetten_in_nederland_-_resultaten_2024.pdf"},{"layer":"Interconnection queue","method":"measured","vintage":"end-2025 (LBNL 2026)","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.stibbe.com/publications-and-insights/parliamentary-letter-on-grid-congestion-eight-measures-for-better"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"triangulated","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics"}]},"outlook":"Negative","confidence":"High","under_review":false,"thesis":"Amsterdam is a major hub, but the connection-queue crisis (14,000-plus businesses waiting, regions full for the decade) is the binding constraint. The access gate, not power, decides it.","pillars":{"access":25,"availability":40,"cost":40,"momentum":70,"carbon":52},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Acute access crisis: 14,000-plus waiting, quoted waits up to 10 years, whole regions full for the decade.","availability":"Tight availability on a congested grid.","cost":"High cost.","momentum":"High momentum (Amsterdam FLAP-D), but gated.","carbon":"Moderate carbon (~330 g)."},"offtake_opportunity_index":0,"demand_hunger":62,"build_feasibility":1,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":46,"bess_arbitrage_pct":62,"solar_capture_pct":101,"wind_capture_pct":100,"effective_competing_supply_gw":30.4},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["The 100-plus congestion measures and grid build clear capacity.","Flexibility/curtailable connections open a path."],"downgrade":["Congestion worsens and waits lengthen.","Local data-center restrictions."]},"risks":["Connection-queue crisis.","Local restrictions."],"peers":{"like":"Great Britain / Dublin (hub, gated)","ahead":"on momentum","behind":"on access"},"sources":[{"label":"Dutch grid congestion, NL Times","url":"https://nltimes.nl/2025/10/06/14000-businesses-waiting-list-connect-congested-power-grid"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Jul 2026","type":"Affirmed","note":"Court ruling hardens the connection constraint the tier already prices in; tier holds.","trigger":"Haarlemmermeer waiting-list ruling (29 Apr 2026)"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":75,"carbon_intensity_g":280,"renewable_pct":48,"renewable_generation_share_pct":48,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":51,"fuel_mix":{"gas":40,"wind":25,"solar":15,"biofuel":8,"coal":6,"nuclear":3,"other":3},"demand_mw":15000,"capacity_mw":30000,"imports_mw":5000,"exports_mw":3000,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":21300,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M2 Compiled","overall_permits":"Compiled from cited sources: supports investor and institutional analysis.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M3 Project-ready","connection":"M2 Compiled","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"M4 Local"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"measured"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"held","method":"measured"},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-01-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/netherlands","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"independently_compiled","label":"Independently compiled","means":"The band is assembled from multiple sourced, dated and applicable published figures. It is not a single benchmark and it is not a tariff reconstruction.","reproducible":"partially"},"component":{"total_lines":3,"reproducible_lines":0,"states":["estimated_allocation"],"all_lines_are_estimated_allocations":true,"independently_reproducible":false,"illustrative":true,"notice":"Illustrative allocation of the compiled midpoint. Component lines are not separately sourced and should not be interpreted as observed tariff charges.","notice_short":"Illustrative allocation — lines not separately sourced","vocabulary_version":"evidence-layers-1.0"},"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}