{"id":"newfoundland","rid":"NL","name":"Newfoundland & Labrador","flag":"🇨🇦","group":"canada","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":3,"tier_name":"Workable","score":58,"pillar_score":61,"pillar_tier":3,"pillar_tier_name":"Workable","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":3,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Low","delivery_transmission":{"level":"none"},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"modelled","note":"Modelled read: hydro-heavy but small and isolated, with a Muskrat Falls commissioning history."},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":3,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"End 2026","event":"Definitive binding agreements on Churchill Falls and Gull Island targeted","why":"The 17 Aug 2026 agreement is non-binding. Execution is what triggers the Major Projects Office referral, the federal loan guarantee for Gull Island and the provincial electricity rebate.","source":{"label":"VOCM","url":"https://vocm.com/2026/08/17/cf-deal-draft/"}},{"date":"By Oct 2026","event":"Quebec general election, a live risk to the counterparty's position","why":"The Parti Quebecois has said it would scrap the agreement. A change of government in Quebec before binding agreements are signed is the single largest execution risk to the deal.","source":{"label":"VOCM","url":"https://vocm.com/2026/08/18/307309/"}},{"date":"On binding agreements","event":"$1 billion federal commitment to a Labrador West transmission line","why":"Stated as necessary to open new mining and industrial projects in the Labrador Trough. This, not Gull Island, is the near-term item that would change what a large load can actually connect to in Labrador.","source":{"label":"Government of Newfoundland and Labrador","url":"https://www.gov.nl.ca/releases/2026/exec/0817n01/"}},{"date":"Through the early 2040s","event":"Gull Island and associated build, on Ottawa's own GDP timeline","why":"The 14,000 MW figure is a multi-decade construction programme, not near-term supply. A load siting in the next few years should price the existing system, not the announcement.","source":{"label":"Prime Minister of Canada","url":"https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/08/17/prime-minister-carney-announces-largest-clean-energy-investment-north"}},{"date":"No date set","event":"CFX feasibility study on expanding the Churchill Falls plant","why":"The expansion was removed from the agreement and has no commercial arrangements; treat it as optionality, not capacity.","source":{"label":"VOCM","url":"https://vocm.com/2026/08/17/cf-deal-draft/"}}],"queue":null,"friction":null,"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":null,"territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":null,"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype, but PowerGridIQ does not publish one for this market yet.","user_action":"There is no band to use here today. The inputs are observable, so this is our work to finish rather than evidence you need to gather -- do not engage the utility on our behalf, and do not treat the absence as a finding about the market. Read cost_evidence_state.remedy for what is outstanding.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":false},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":{"publisher":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","publication":"National Inventory Report 1990-2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada","table":"A7-2","jurisdiction":"Newfoundland and Labrador","year":"2024","preliminary":true,"unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","boundary":"operational_combustion","boundary_label":"generation_intensity","boundary_quote":"A “generation intensity” indicator is derived to reflect the GHG emissions intensity of electricity as it is delivered to the electricity grid.","generation_intensity":16.042,"consumption_intensity_not_adopted":17.043,"why_consumption_not_adopted":"SF6 is not combustion, and the denominator is not generation. This is a wider boundary than operational_combustion. Publishing it as if it were operational would repeat the mixed-boundary defect corrected on 8 September.","scope_excludes":"autoproducers (main activity producers only)","licence":"Open Government Licence - Canada","url":"https://data-donnees.ec.gc.ca/data/substances/monitor/canada-s-official-greenhouse-gas-inventory/C-Tables-Electricity-Canada-Provinces-Territories/","read_on":"2026-09-09","published_value":8,"published_value_basis":"hand_authored_undeclared_basis","official_value":16,"difference_published_minus_official":-8,"which_one_is_served_by_this_api":"published_value","adoption_status":"not_adopted_pending_review","why_not_adopted":"Publication of changed carbon intensities is on the approval list, and this changes nine at once, which is separately a mass numerical correction. Two of the nine were corrected sixteen hours ago under carbon-correction-1.0, so this would be the second movement of the same field in one day and the public record has to say so plainly.","what_this_means_for_the_rating":"Nothing either way. carbon_intensity_g is not an input to the PGIQ Rating -- the carbon pillar is a separate, assessed field -- so neither the published value nor the official one moves a tier, score, pillar or outlook.","caveats":["Annex 7 states: \"The analysis in this section only includes main activity producers.\" Autoproducers -- industrial sites generating for their own use, such as pulp mills and refinery cogeneration -- are excluded from both the emissions and the generation. A grid average that included them would differ, and in a province with heavy industrial self-generation it would differ materially.","The 2024 column carries footnote a, \"Preliminary data\". It is the current official figure and it is expected to be revised in a later submission.","Annex 7 footnote 1: Statistics Canada occasionally revises historic data, which can change values across the whole series, not just the latest year. A figure adopted from this table is a figure that will move."],"observed_generation_mix_2024":{"gas_pct":0,"coal_pct":0,"all_combustion_pct":1.87,"total_generation_gwh":41517.352,"basis":"share of electricity GENERATED, main activity producers, ECCC Annex 7","stated_fuel_mix_on_this_record_is":"a different and unsourced quantity. It is not known to be a generation share, and where the two can be compared they differ in both directions."}},"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Low","coverage":"Partial","coverage_dimensions":1,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":0,"data_layers":1,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"modelled","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":null}]},"outlook":"Stable","confidence":"Med","under_review":false,"thesis":"The headline hydro surplus is misleading: Churchill Falls output is largely contracted and exported, the island grid is separate and remote, and Muskrat Falls has been troubled. Deliverable power for a new island load is limited despite the paper surplus.","pillars":{"access":52,"availability":55,"cost":93,"momentum":22,"carbon":99},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Limited access: remote, separate island grid; Labrador hydro is contracted/exported.","availability":"Constrained deliverable availability despite a large paper surplus.","cost":"Cheap power.","momentum":"Little momentum.","carbon":"Near-zero operational carbon (~10 g), hydro."},"offtake_opportunity_index":49,"demand_hunger":27,"build_feasibility":52,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":5,"bess_arbitrage_pct":60,"solar_capture_pct":90,"wind_capture_pct":101},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Churchill Falls contract changes free deliverable surplus (post-2041).","Grid and transmission investment improves deliverability."],"downgrade":["Continued contracted/exported hydro.","Island-grid reliability issues."]},"risks":["Contracted hydro and deliverability.","Remoteness and island-grid constraints."],"peers":{"like":"remote hydro provinces","ahead":"on raw clean power","behind":"on deliverable access"},"sources":[{"label":"CER provincial data","url":"https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 3 Workable assigned (corrected from a naive surplus read).","trigger":null},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":8,"carbon_intensity_g":8,"renewable_pct":98,"renewable_generation_share_pct":98,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":98,"fuel_mix":{"hydro":92,"wind":4,"gas":2,"biofuel":2},"demand_mw":1700,"capacity_mw":8800,"imports_mw":50,"exports_mw":900,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":2414,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"hydro","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"not_assessed","overall_permits":"Not assessed. Treat as an open diligence item; absence of a finding is not evidence of low risk.","insufficient_evidence":true,"unassessed_required_fields":["cost","connection"],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"not_assessed","connection":"not_assessed","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"not_assessed","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection"},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, connection, local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"modelled"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-05-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/newfoundland","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"insufficient_evidence","label":"Insufficient evidence","means":"No band is published because the available evidence does not support one.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}