{"id":"northern-virginia","rid":"PJM","name":"Northern Virginia (PJM)","flag":"🇺🇸","group":"us","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":2,"tier_name":"Strong","score":52,"pillar_score":59,"pillar_tier":2,"pillar_tier_name":"Strong","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"elevated","dock":7,"provisional":false,"confidence":"High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"Winter Storm Elliott (Dec 2022) drove nearly 46,000 MW of forced outages in PJM, about 25% of installed capacity, prompting PJM's first conservation call since 2014 and a warning that rotating outages were a real risk.","sources":[{"label":"PJM Winter Storm Elliott report","url":"https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-releases-winter-storm-elliott-report/"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none","note":"Not compiled. Dominion files distribution SAIDI and SAIFI annually with the Virginia State Corporation Commission, and the Commission publishes a five-year series in its combined annual report, calculated to EXCLUDE major weather events such as hurricanes and derechos. The same figures are reported to EIA on Form 861, Schedules 3B and 3C. We have not compiled the value, so this layer is not counted as evidence. Read the SCC report or the EIA-861 reliability file for the figure, and note the major-event exclusion before comparing it with any market that reports on an all-events basis.","sources":[{"label":"Annual Report on Grid Modernization, Reliability and Integration of Renewables, Virginia SCC (Dec 2025)","url":"https://rga.lis.virginia.gov/Published/2025/RD916/PDF"}]},"forward_capacity":{"level":"elevated","measure":"assessed","note":"Reserve margins are tightening as data-center demand surges: the 2025 capacity auction cleared at the $333/MW-day cap with an installed reserve margin near 14.8%, below the 20% target, and FERC members flagged reliability concerns. Mitigants include possible retirement deferrals and a lower forecast peak.","sources":[{"label":"PJM capacity prices hit record (Utility Dive)","url":"https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-interconnection-capacity-auction-data-center/808264/"},{"label":"NERC 2024 LTRA (PJM elevated-risk)","url":"https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/2024-ltra_corrected_july_2025.pdf"}]},"read":"Reliability flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":7,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"mixed","direction":"worsening","why":"FERC preliminarily found PJM's large-load tariff unjust (Section 206) and a DOE order allows curtailing data centres as a class; co-location and cost-allocation economics are in flux.","what_would_change_it":"The FERC process settling on workable co-location and cost-allocation rules for large loads.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0","beyond_the_grid":{"text":"Community and land-use permitting is now decisive here: after residents raised water, noise and Civil War heritage concerns, courts voided the roughly 2,100-acre Prince William Digital Gateway approvals and the county stopped defending them in 2026, ending what would have been one of the world's largest campuses.","sources":[{"label":"Virginia Business","url":"https://virginiabusiness.com/prince-william-digital-gateway-data-center-project-officially-dies/"},{"label":"Newsweek","url":"https://www.newsweek.com/how-virginias-plans-for-biggest-data-center-in-the-world-fell-apart-12175465"}]},"for_new_supply":"PJM's reopened first-ready-first-served queue drew about 220 GW in its first cycle (106 GW gas, 67 GW storage), so the build pathway for new supply is genuinely open."},"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"By Oct 2026","event":"FERC decision on PJM's Interim Resource Adequacy Service filing","why":"PJM asked for acceptance within 60 days of its 13 Aug 2026 filing. Acceptance would put new large loads without their own capacity first in line for curtailment and exclude them from procured capacity need from 2029/2030.","source":{"label":"PJM Inside Lines","url":"https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-proposes-framework-to-connect-data-centers-without-compromising-reliability-affordability/"}},{"date":"Outstanding","event":"FERC ruling on the abeyance requests in the six large-load Section 206 dockets","why":"All six RTOs asked on 28 Jul and 3 Aug 2026 to pause their proceedings for 90 days. Until the Commission rules, the 17 Aug 2026 response deadline and everything downstream of it are unsettled.","source":{"label":"Federal Register, FERC notice, Docket EL26-67-000","url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/04/2026-15779/pjm-interconnection-llc"}},{"date":"Sep 2026","event":"PJM Reliability Backstop Procurement targeted to commence 30 Sep 2026","why":"The one-time procurement that determines whether a new large load is covered by acquired capacity or falls into IRAS curtailment. PJM's proposal for it is itself still before FERC.","source":{"label":"PJM Inside Lines","url":"https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-reliability-backstop-proposal-outlines-steps-to-secure-new-supply-and-maintain-reliability/"}}],"queue":{"active_gw":144,"wait_months":null,"has_detail":true,"wait_band":"5+ years"},"friction":null,"connection_pathway":{"operator":"PJM Interconnection","role":"regional transmission organisation","process":"New Service Request, plus the serving utility's own large-load process","note":"PJM runs transmission interconnection; the distribution-level large-load path runs through the serving utility and its state regulator.","url":"https://www.pjm.com/planning/service-requests"},"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":true,"local_capacity_state":"constrained","local_capacity_depth":4,"cost_basis":"administered","territory_count":1},"reliability_metrics":{"saidi_min":131.3,"saidi_year":"2024","forward_adequacy":null,"measure":"historical utility-territory delivery performance","standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","standard_note":"major event days identified by the respondent's own method, not IEEE 1366; comparable within this market, not across standards","evidence_role":"single_utility_observation","by_serving_utility":[{"customers":2635267,"saidi_minutes":131.3,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"VA","utility":"Virginia Electric & Power Co","utility_id":19876,"weight":1}],"evidence_role_basis":"one named utility's own filed record; it becomes a read on a site only once that site is matched to this utility's territory, and only if no other operator serves part of this market"},"forward_cost":{"level":"Severe","price":"$333.44 per MW-day","period":"2027/28 delivery year"},"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":null,"mid_usd_per_mwh":82.63,"high_usd_per_mwh":null,"aggregation":"tariff_point","estimate_usd_per_mwh":82.63,"estimate_kind_note":"A tariff-derived POINT ESTIMATE for one defined customer, not a band. low_usd_per_mwh and high_usd_per_mwh are null by design: the rate is posted, so the uncertainty is completeness rather than dispersion.","total_derivation":"tariff_reconstruction","total_derivation_note":"The total is the SUM of independently derived component lines, not a compiled figure the lines were fitted to. Nothing here was forced to a preselected midpoint.","tariff_basis":{"customer_archetype":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% annual load factor","definition":"Current tariff-derived estimate for a 100 MW, 95% load-factor customer taking transmission-voltage service under Dominion GS-4.","service_voltage":"transmission, 69 kV and above","load_factor":0.95,"power_factor":0.95,"rate_schedule":"Dominion Energy Virginia Schedule GS-4, Large General Service","rate_schedule_status":"current","schedule_effective":"2026-01-01","schedule_filed":"2025-12-09","riders_effective":"2026-07-01","riders_filed":"2026-06-25","evidence_as_of":"2026-08-23","supply_assumption":"standard utility supply under the bundled regulated tariff; no competitive service provider, no self-supply, no special contract","included":["base schedule energy and demand charges","all fifteen riders in the current Exhibit of Applicable Riders","Virginia consumption tax and GS-4 sales-and-use surcharge","reactive demand at the recommended 0.95 power factor"],"included_note":"Recurring delivered charges only. Two riders, RGGI and DIST, are currently filed at exactly zero and are carried as applicable-and-zero rather than treated as absent.","excluded":["customer-funded connection capital and contributions in aid of construction","Rider D, which is a multiplier on that capital rather than a charge on energy or demand","any locality-specific consumer utility tax beyond the local component already inside the Virginia consumption tax","the Virginia data-centre electricity tax, which applies to a different customer and is published as a scenario"],"connection_capital_excluded":true,"scheduled_change":{"schedule":"Rate Schedule GS-5","effective":"2027-01-01","status":"scheduled, final, not included in the current estimate","note":"GS-5 is mandatory for qualifying new load of 25 MW or more at a load factor of at least 75%. Its rate levels for this archetype are not yet established, so it cannot be priced. The current estimate is GS-4 and only GS-4.","authority":"Virginia State Corporation Commission, PUR-2025-00058"},"provenance":[{"label":"Dominion Energy Virginia rates and tariffs","url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs"},{"label":"Virginia SCC, Dominion biennial review PUR-2025-00058","url":"https://www.scc.virginia.gov/about-the-scc/newsreleases/release/scc-issues-order-on-dev-biennial-review-2025/scc-rules-in-dev-biennial-review-case.html"}],"basis_version":"tariff-basis-1.0"},"scenarios":[{"id":"virginia_data_centre_tax","label":"Virginia data-centre tax scenario","kind":"alternative_customer","total_usd_per_mwh":93.63,"delta_usd_per_mwh":11,"is_complete_delivered_cost":true,"customer_definition":"A qualifying data centre under HB30 Item 3-5.24. This is a DIFFERENT customer from the published PowerGridIQ archetype, which is a general large load and does not automatically incur this tax.","effective":"2026-07-01","expires":"2028-07-01","effective_period_note":"Effective 1 July 2026 and scheduled to sunset before 1 July 2028 unless extended.","refund_note":"Stated pre-refund. A refund mechanism exists and is not assumed.","is_band_endpoint":false},{"id":"osw_rider_adjustment","label":"Qualifying offshore-wind contract","kind":"rider_adjustment","total_usd_per_mwh":null,"delta_usd_per_mwh":-2.82,"is_complete_delivered_cost":false,"statement":"Qualifying offshore-wind contract: Rider OSW adjustment of approximately -$2.82/MWh, before the separately contracted cost of offshore-wind supply and environmental attributes. Net delivered cost is not publicly observable.","customer_definition":"A qualifying large general service customer under Va. Code 56-585.1:11 A, which requires a 15-year contract to procure offshore-wind supply and environmental attributes. Size alone does not qualify a customer.","why_not_a_total":"Removing the rider without adding the separately contracted cost of offshore-wind supply and environmental attributes would understate the customer's total cost.","is_band_endpoint":false}],"confidence":"administered","public_fragments":16,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes","cost_components":[{"name":"Schedule GS-4 base, transmission voltage","usd_per_mwh":20.82,"source":"Dominion Energy Virginia Schedule GS-4, Large General Service","provenance":{"provenance_state":"tariff_derived","provenance_state_label":"Tariff-derived","provenance_state_means":"Calculated from applicable filed tariff rates, riders or taxes by a stated formula, at the declared archetype. The rates are published and dated; the conversion to $/MWh is ours and is published with it.","derivation":"tariff_derived","derivation_note":"This line's value is calculated from applicable filed tariff rates by a stated formula. The rates are published; the $/MWh at our archetype is our arithmetic.","source":"Dominion Energy Virginia Schedule GS-4, Large General Service","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","source_id":"DEV-GS-4","filed":"2025-12-09","effective":"2026-01-01","as_of":"2026-01-01","method":"filed schedule rates applied to the archetype's demand and energy determinations","formula":"(generation demand $9.280/kW-month + transmission demand $2.313/kW-month) x 100,000 kW x 12 months / 8,322,000 kWh, plus the schedule's on-peak and off-peak energy charges and the distribution kWh charge","inputs":"transmission service voltage; 100,000 kW billing demand; 832,200 MWh per year","customer_applicability":"Large General Service, 5,000 kW and above, transmission voltage","confidence":"tariff_derived","confidence_note":"Calculated from filed, dated tariff rates by a published formula at the declared archetype. The rate is the utility's; the conversion is ours.","what_would_upgrade_it":"A published figure from the utility stated for this case directly, which would make the line observed rather than derived. Until then the arithmetic is ours and is shown.","version":"line-provenance-1.1","state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"evidence":"independently_sourced"},{"name":"Riders, fifteen filed sheets","usd_per_mwh":60.34,"source":"Dominion Exhibit of Applicable Riders, GS-4","provenance":{"provenance_state":"tariff_derived","provenance_state_label":"Tariff-derived","provenance_state_means":"Calculated from applicable filed tariff rates, riders or taxes by a stated formula, at the declared archetype. The rates are published and dated; the conversion to $/MWh is ours and is published with it.","derivation":"tariff_derived","derivation_note":"This line's value is calculated from applicable filed tariff rates by a stated formula. The rates are published; the $/MWh at our archetype is our arithmetic.","source":"Dominion Exhibit of Applicable Riders, GS-4","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","source_id":"DEV-GS-4-RIDERS","filed":"2026-06-25","effective":"2026-07-01","as_of":"2026-07-01","method":"each of the fifteen applicable rider sheets converted to $/MWh and summed","formula":"kWh riders: cents/kWh x 10. Demand riders: $/kW-month x 100,000 kW x 12 / 8,322,000 kWh. Rider A (fuel) is the largest single line at $37.65/MWh.","inputs":"fifteen rider sheets, each individually dated and effective today","customer_applicability":"riders applicable to GS-4 at transmission voltage; RGGI and DIST are filed at 0.0000 and carried at zero","confidence":"tariff_derived","confidence_note":"Calculated from filed, dated tariff rates by a published formula at the declared archetype. The rate is the utility's; the conversion is ours.","what_would_upgrade_it":"A published figure from the utility stated for this case directly, which would make the line observed rather than derived. Until then the arithmetic is ours and is shown.","version":"line-provenance-1.1","state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"evidence":"independently_sourced"},{"name":"State and local taxes","usd_per_mwh":1.29,"source":"Virginia electric consumption tax and the GS-4 sales-and-use surcharge","provenance":{"provenance_state":"tariff_derived","provenance_state_label":"Tariff-derived","provenance_state_means":"Calculated from applicable filed tariff rates, riders or taxes by a stated formula, at the declared archetype. The rates are published and dated; the conversion to $/MWh is ours and is published with it.","derivation":"tariff_derived","derivation_note":"This line's value is calculated from applicable filed tariff rates by a stated formula. The rates are published; the $/MWh at our archetype is our arithmetic.","source":"Virginia electric consumption tax and the GS-4 sales-and-use surcharge","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","source_id":"VA-CONSUMPTION-TAX","filed":null,"effective":"2026-01-01","as_of":"2026-01-01","method":"statutory per-kWh rates converted at the archetype's annual consumption","formula":"($0.000845/kWh consumption tax + $0.000440/kWh sales-and-use surcharge) x 1,000","inputs":"the consumption tax already contains its local component at $0.00018/kWh; no further locality tax is added","customer_applicability":"non-residential Virginia consumption above the top tax bracket","confidence":"tariff_derived","confidence_note":"Calculated from filed, dated tariff rates by a published formula at the declared archetype. The rate is the utility's; the conversion is ours.","what_would_upgrade_it":"A published figure from the utility stated for this case directly, which would make the line observed rather than derived. Until then the arithmetic is ours and is shown.","version":"line-provenance-1.1","state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"evidence":"independently_sourced"},{"name":"Reactive demand (rkVA at 0.95 power factor)","usd_per_mwh":0.18,"source":"Dominion Schedule GS-4 reactive demand charge","provenance":{"provenance_state":"tariff_derived","provenance_state_label":"Tariff-derived","provenance_state_means":"Calculated from applicable filed tariff rates, riders or taxes by a stated formula, at the declared archetype. The rates are published and dated; the conversion to $/MWh is ours and is published with it.","derivation":"tariff_derived","derivation_note":"This line's value is calculated from applicable filed tariff rates by a stated formula. The rates are published; the $/MWh at our archetype is our arithmetic.","source":"Dominion Schedule GS-4 reactive demand charge","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","source_id":"DEV-GS-4-RKVA","filed":null,"effective":"2026-01-01","as_of":"2026-01-01","method":"filed reactive charge at the recommended power-factor assumption","formula":"$0.393/rkVA x 100,000 kW x tan(arccos(0.95)) x 12 / 8,322,000 kWh","inputs":"power factor 0.95 is an ASSUMPTION, not a filed value; the full 1.00-0.90 sensitivity spans $0.27/MWh","customer_applicability":"GS-4 customers billed on reactive demand","confidence":"tariff_derived","confidence_note":"Calculated from filed, dated tariff rates by a published formula at the declared archetype. The rate is the utility's; the conversion is ours.","what_would_upgrade_it":"A published figure from the utility stated for this case directly, which would make the line observed rather than derived. Until then the arithmetic is ours and is shown.","version":"line-provenance-1.1","state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"evidence":"independently_sourced"}],"component_status":{"arithmetic_integrity":true,"evidence_reconciliation":"independently_reconciled","independently_sourced_lines":4,"total_lines":4,"bundled":[],"text":"Every component line is read from a named filed rate document and carries its own source. The total is their sum, not an allocation across a compiled band.","provenance_summary":{"by_state":{"tariff_derived":4},"usd_by_state":{"tariff_derived":82.63},"evidenced_share_pct":100,"lines_awaiting_evidence":[],"what_would_close_them":"A separately sourced or tariff-derived figure for each category, with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not these lines.","version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"category_coverage":{"energy":{"status":"bundled","line":"Schedule GS-4 base, transmission voltage","combined_with":["transmission","distribution","demand_charges"],"line_is_sourced":true,"line_provenance_state":"tariff_derived","source":"Dominion Energy Virginia Schedule GS-4, Large General Service","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","effective":"2026-01-01","formula":"(generation demand $9.280/kW-month + transmission demand $2.313/kW-month) x 100,000 kW x 12 months / 8,322,000 kWh, plus the schedule's on-peak and off-peak energy charges and the distribution kWh charge","missing_evidence":"The Schedule GS-4 base, transmission voltage line is sourced, but nothing establishes how much of it is wholesale or tariff energy. A sourced apportionment of that line would close it."},"capacity":{"status":"bundled","line":"Riders, fifteen filed sheets","combined_with":["riders","carbon","ancillary"],"line_is_sourced":true,"line_provenance_state":"tariff_derived","source":"Dominion Exhibit of Applicable Riders, GS-4","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","effective":"2026-07-01","formula":"kWh riders: cents/kWh x 10. Demand riders: $/kW-month x 100,000 kW x 12 / 8,322,000 kWh. Rider A (fuel) is the largest single line at $37.65/MWh.","missing_evidence":"The Riders, fifteen filed sheets line is sourced, but nothing establishes how much of it is capacity or resource adequacy. A sourced apportionment of that line would close it."},"transmission":{"status":"bundled","line":"Schedule GS-4 base, transmission voltage","combined_with":["energy","distribution","demand_charges"],"line_is_sourced":true,"line_provenance_state":"tariff_derived","source":"Dominion Energy Virginia Schedule GS-4, Large General Service","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","effective":"2026-01-01","formula":"(generation demand $9.280/kW-month + transmission demand $2.313/kW-month) x 100,000 kW x 12 months / 8,322,000 kWh, plus the schedule's on-peak and off-peak energy charges and the distribution kWh charge","missing_evidence":"The Schedule GS-4 base, transmission voltage line is sourced, but nothing establishes how much of it is transmission. A sourced apportionment of that line would close it."},"distribution":{"status":"bundled","line":"Schedule GS-4 base, transmission voltage","combined_with":["energy","transmission","demand_charges"],"line_is_sourced":true,"line_provenance_state":"tariff_derived","source":"Dominion Energy Virginia Schedule GS-4, Large General Service","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","effective":"2026-01-01","formula":"(generation demand $9.280/kW-month + transmission demand $2.313/kW-month) x 100,000 kW x 12 months / 8,322,000 kWh, plus the schedule's on-peak and off-peak energy charges and the distribution kWh charge","missing_evidence":"The Schedule GS-4 base, transmission voltage line is sourced, but nothing establishes how much of it is distribution. A sourced apportionment of that line would close it."},"demand_charges":{"status":"bundled","line":"Schedule GS-4 base, transmission voltage","combined_with":["energy","transmission","distribution"],"line_is_sourced":true,"line_provenance_state":"tariff_derived","source":"Dominion Energy Virginia Schedule GS-4, Large General Service","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","effective":"2026-01-01","formula":"(generation demand $9.280/kW-month + transmission demand $2.313/kW-month) x 100,000 kW x 12 months / 8,322,000 kWh, plus the schedule's on-peak and off-peak energy charges and the distribution kWh charge","missing_evidence":"The Schedule GS-4 base, transmission voltage line is sourced, but nothing establishes how much of it is demand charges. A sourced apportionment of that line would close it."},"ancillary":{"status":"bundled","line":"Riders, fifteen filed sheets","combined_with":["riders","carbon","capacity"],"line_is_sourced":true,"line_provenance_state":"tariff_derived","source":"Dominion Exhibit of Applicable Riders, GS-4","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","effective":"2026-07-01","formula":"kWh riders: cents/kWh x 10. Demand riders: $/kW-month x 100,000 kW x 12 / 8,322,000 kWh. Rider A (fuel) is the largest single line at $37.65/MWh.","missing_evidence":"The Riders, fifteen filed sheets line is sourced, but nothing establishes how much of it is ancillary services and uplift. A sourced apportionment of that line would close it."},"riders":{"status":"bundled","line":"Riders, fifteen filed sheets","combined_with":["carbon","ancillary","capacity"],"line_is_sourced":true,"line_provenance_state":"tariff_derived","source":"Dominion Exhibit of Applicable Riders, GS-4","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","effective":"2026-07-01","formula":"kWh riders: cents/kWh x 10. Demand riders: $/kW-month x 100,000 kW x 12 / 8,322,000 kWh. Rider A (fuel) is the largest single line at $37.65/MWh.","missing_evidence":"The Riders, fifteen filed sheets line is sourced, but nothing establishes how much of it is riders and unavoidable regulatory charges. A sourced apportionment of that line would close it."},"carbon":{"status":"bundled","line":"Riders, fifteen filed sheets","combined_with":["riders","ancillary","capacity"],"line_is_sourced":true,"line_provenance_state":"tariff_derived","source":"Dominion Exhibit of Applicable Riders, GS-4","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","effective":"2026-07-01","formula":"kWh riders: cents/kWh x 10. Demand riders: $/kW-month x 100,000 kW x 12 / 8,322,000 kWh. Rider A (fuel) is the largest single line at $37.65/MWh.","missing_evidence":"The Riders, fifteen filed sheets line is sourced, but nothing establishes how much of it is carbon-related charges. A sourced apportionment of that line would close it."},"taxes":{"status":"tariff_derived","line":"State and local taxes","source":"Virginia electric consumption tax and the GS-4 sales-and-use surcharge","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs","source_id":"VA-CONSUMPTION-TAX","as_of":"2026-01-01","effective":"2026-01-01","filed":null,"method":"statutory per-kWh rates converted at the archetype's annual consumption","formula":"($0.000845/kWh consumption tax + $0.000440/kWh sales-and-use surcharge) x 1,000","customer_applicability":"non-residential Virginia consumption above the top tax bracket","confidence":"tariff_derived","provenance_state":"tariff_derived"},"connection_capital":{"status":"not_applicable","reason":"Outside the recurring $/MWh boundary by definition."}},"category_vocabulary_version":"cost-categories-1.0","capacity_cross_check":null,"method_version":"cost-components-1.0"},"component_source":["Dominion Energy Virginia rates and tariffs","https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs"]},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","scheduled":{"current_state":"standardized_observable","current_cost_observability":"Observable and published. Schedule GS-4, filed 2025-12-09 and effective 2026-01-01, is a bundled cost-of-service tariff that a 100 MW transmission-voltage load takes today. The delivered cost is built from that schedule, the fifteen riders in the current Exhibit of Applicable Riders and applicable Virginia taxes, and published as a point estimate rather than a band.","scheduled_state":"scheduled_change","effective_date":"2027-01-01","decision_status":"final","action":"plan_against","instrument":"Rate Schedule GS-5","authority":"Virginia State Corporation Commission","proceeding":"PUR-2025-00058, final order November 2025 (Dominion biennial review)","source_url":"https://www.scc.virginia.gov/about-the-scc/newsreleases/release/scc-issues-order-on-dev-biennial-review-2025/scc-rules-in-dev-biennial-review-case.html","applicable_threshold":"25 MW or more on a contiguous site AND a load factor of at least 75%. Mandatory for qualifying NEW customers, not elective.","archetype_qualifies":true,"future_cost_observability":"Partial. The rate CLASS, its effective date and its contractual rules are final. The $/kW and $/kWh charges the archetype would pay are not yet established here, so a delivered-cost band cannot be built from this alone.","remaining_unknowns":["GS-5 rate levels for the archetype's voltage and demand.","How the 14-year contract term and exit fees price into a siting decision.","Whether the GS-5 rebuild, when its rates are set, reproduces the GS-4 result or moves it."],"terms_binding_the_archetype":false,"terms_note":"Minimum charges of 85% of contracted distribution and transmission demand and 60% of generation demand do not bind a 95% load factor archetype, whose actual demand sits above every floor. The 14-year term, collateral and exit fees are real commitments and are not a $/MWh figure.","user_instruction":"The proceeding is concluded. GS-5 begins 1 January 2027. Projects expected to take service under the new regime should plan against its mandatory contract and minimum-payment requirements now.","version":"scheduled-change-1.0"},"band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"publication_grade","answerable":true,"label":"Publication grade","means":"Every publication gate is clear: applicability, cost boundary, components with their own provenance, reconciliation and evidence depth.","remedy":null,"also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":{"defect":"#319","status":"corrected","withdrawn":"2026-08-23","corrected":"2026-08-23","headline":"Northern Virginia recurring cost estimate corrected","version":"cost-correction-1.0","defects_closed":["#307","#308","#319"],"full_record_and_superseded_values_at":"https://powergridiq.com/data/corrections.json","url":"https://powergridiq.com/corrections#northern-virginia"},"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":{"rubric_version":"cost-pillar-rubric-1.0","input_usd_per_mwh":82.63,"level_score":78.1,"direction":"adverse_scheduled","direction_adjustment":-6,"observability":"independently_sourced","observability_adjustment":2,"cost_pillar":74,"arithmetic":"78.1 -6 +2 = 74","notes":["LEVEL. $82.63/MWh from Dominion GS-4, its fifteen riders and applicable taxes, at the published archetype. Fourth cheapest of the eight US markets carrying a figure -- above ERCOT West, SPP and MISO, below ERCOT Central, ISO-NE, NYISO and CAISO. The withdrawn band would have scored far lower here than the pillar that was actually published; see NOVA_UNDER_OLD_BAND for the computed value. The superseded figures are not restated in this module.","DIRECTION, adverse and scheduled rather than merely feared. Schedule GS-5 is mandatory for qualifying new load from 1 January 2027 with a 14-year term; the Virginia data-centre electricity tax took effect 1 July 2026; PJM capacity cleared at the $333.44/MW-day cap for 2027/28. None of these is a risk to be discounted -- all three are decided and dated.","OBSERVABILITY, the strongest in the US set. Dominion GS-4 is a bundled cost-of-service tariff, so the entire delivered cost sits in one filed, posted, currently effective document. This is the only US market where the figure is independently_sourced rather than an estimated allocation. That is worth something to a developer and the rubric says how much: two points, not a free hand."]},"evidence":{"source_reliability":"High","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":4,"data_layers":4,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability","method":"measured","vintage":"2024","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/"},{"layer":"Forward cost","method":"measured","vintage":"2027/28 delivery year","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.rtoinsider.com/121911-pjm-capacity-auction-clears-max-price-falls-short-reliability-requirement/"},{"layer":"Interconnection queue","method":"measured","vintage":"end-2025 (LBNL 2026)","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://emp.lbl.gov/queues"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"measured","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.dominionenergy.com/virginia/rates-and-tariffs"}]},"outlook":"Negative","confidence":"High","under_review":true,"thesis":"The largest and most proven data-centre market on earth, which is why it holds a strong rating despite a severe connection queue and rising cost. But it is saturated and expensive, and getting in is slow and slowing further. A builder free to go elsewhere may prefer a cheaper, faster market.","pillars":{"access":42,"availability":45,"cost":74,"momentum":92,"carbon":58},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Access is the binding constraint: a severe PJM interconnection queue, capacity-price spikes, and multi-year waits. Hyperscalers still execute via Dominion (~47 GW contracted pipeline), which earns the override; new greenfield entry is hard.","availability":"Tight availability: load growth of 30+ GW by 2030 is outrunning new supply.","cost":"Current filed-tariff costs are lower than previously estimated, while scheduled GS-5 obligations, tightening PJM capacity conditions and large-load connection requirements continue to weigh on the outlook.","momentum":"Unmatched momentum: ~4 GW operational and ~1 GW added a year, the world's #1 market.","carbon":"Carbon moderate (~280 g), gas-led with growing renewables."},"offtake_opportunity_index":58,"demand_hunger":60,"build_feasibility":30,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":24,"bess_arbitrage_pct":62,"solar_capture_pct":108,"wind_capture_pct":99,"effective_competing_supply_gw":36},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["PJM queue reform (first-ready, first-served) materially shortens new connection timelines.","Large new supply (gas, nuclear, SMRs) energizes in-zone."],"downgrade":["Capacity prices and local moratoria pressure push new entrants out.","Reliability or ratepayer backlash tightens large-load rules."]},"risks":["Saturation and access are deteriorating for new build.","Rising power and capacity cost."],"peers":{"like":"Dublin (world-tier hub, gated entry)","ahead":"ERCOT on openness","behind":"few on strategic importance"},"sources":[{"label":"PJM reopened queue","url":"https://insidelines.pjm.com/over-800-new-generation-projects-seek-to-connect-under-pjms-reformed-process/"},{"label":"Dominion data-center load, EIA","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67664"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Aug 2026","type":"Affirmed","note":"Tier holds. The 22 Jul event caused no reliability impact and the sites behaved as designed, but the scale doubled versus 2024 and the correlated behaviour of a whole cluster is now a planning input rather than customer behaviour. Taken with the FERC direction to NERC, this confirms rather than changes the Availability call: dense, strained, and increasingly governed by rules written specifically for it. The market remains under review on the separate cost grounds already logged.","trigger":"3 GW-plus data center load transfer after the Ashburn line fault, 22 Jul 2026; FERC Docket RD26-7, 16 Jul 2026"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":38,"carbon_intensity_g":290,"renewable_pct":16,"renewable_generation_share_pct":16,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":50,"fuel_mix":{"gas":38,"nuclear":34,"coal":11,"wind":8,"hydro":4,"solar":4,"storage":1},"demand_mw":65000,"capacity_mw":145000,"imports_mw":3000,"exports_mw":1000,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":96200,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M2 Compiled","overall_permits":"Compiled from cited sources: supports investor and institutional analysis.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M3 Project-ready","connection":"M3 Project-ready","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"M4 Local"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M3 Project-ready","ready":true,"blocking_fields":[],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M2 Compiled","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"held","method":"measured"},"contractual_service":{"state":"held","method":"reported"},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-08-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/northern-virginia","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"tariff_reconstruction","label":"Tariff reconstruction","means":"The band is calculated from filed rates for a named customer class, by a stated formula, and can be reproduced from the cited tariff.","reproducible":true},"component":{"total_lines":4,"reproducible_lines":4,"states":["tariff_derived"],"all_lines_are_estimated_allocations":false,"independently_reproducible":true,"illustrative":false,"notice":null,"notice_short":null,"vocabulary_version":"evidence-layers-1.0"},"cost_pillar":{"state":"rubric_derived","label":"Rubric derived","means":"The score is reproduced from a declared rubric, stored inputs and a published formula, and a gate asserts the published score and the rubric agree.","reproducible":true},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}