{"id":"ontario","rid":"ON","name":"Ontario","flag":"🇨🇦","group":"canada","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":2,"tier_name":"Strong","score":64,"pillar_score":69,"pillar_tier":2,"pillar_tier_name":"Strong","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"elevated","dock":5,"provisional":false,"confidence":"High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"none"},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"watch","measure":"modelled","note":"Distribution reliability (rural feeders, storm exposure) is moderate and not the binding concern here."},"forward_capacity":{"level":"elevated","measure":"assessed","note":"Large firm baseload leaving as demand climbs: Pickering Units 5-8 (about 2,000 MW) go offline in September 2026 for refurbishment into the mid-2030s, and Unit 4 was permanently retired in 2025. IESO planning shows needs emerging as data-center demand rises. Steps down if replacement firm capacity clears procurement.","sources":[{"label":"CNSC approves Pickering to end-2026 (NucNet)","url":"https://www.nucnet.org/news/regulator-approves-pickering-operation-to-end-of-2026-as-refurbishment-plans-advance-10-2-2024"},{"label":"Pickering-4 permanently shut (NucNet)","url":"https://www.nucnet.org/news/pickering-4-nuclear-plant-in-ontario-permanently-shut-down-1-5-2025"}]},"read":"Reliability flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":5,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"mixed","direction":"worsening","why":"Bill 40 lets the Minister prioritize and approve large data-centre connections by economic benefit, so access is becoming managed and selective rather than open.","what_would_change_it":"A clear, open large-load connection pathway rather than case-by-case selection.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0","beyond_the_grid":{"text":"Indigenous consultation is central to new transmission and is increasingly structured as equity partnership rather than a late-stage veto risk: Ontario directed Hydro One to build the Red Lake Transmission Line under a model giving proximate First Nations a 50 percent equity stake, and signed a memorandum of understanding with five First Nations on the Barrie-to-Sudbury line.","sources":[{"label":"Hydro One","url":"https://hydroone.mediaroom.com/2026-04-23-Ontario-designates-Hydro-One-to-invest-in-the-Red-Lake-Transmission-Line"},{"label":"Global News","url":"https://globalnews.ca/news/11570826/barrie-sudbury-first-nation-mou-transmission-line/"}]},"for_new_supply":"Ontario is procuring new firm supply and building transmission with First Nations equity partners; replacement capacity for the Pickering refurbishment is the near-term opening."},"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"Sep 2026","event":"Pickering Units 5-8 (about 2,000 MW) go offline for refurbishment","why":"Removes major firm baseload as demand climbs; the forward-capacity flag eases only when replacement firm capacity clears procurement.","source":{"label":"CNSC approves Pickering to end-2026 (NucNet)","url":"https://www.nucnet.org/news/regulator-approves-pickering-operation-to-end-of-2026-as-refurbishment-plans-advance-10-2-2024"}},{"date":"Mid-2030s","event":"Refurbished Pickering units targeted to return to service","why":"Restores firm baseload supply; an upgrade trigger if it lands on schedule.","source":{"label":"CNSC approves Pickering to end-2026 (NucNet)","url":"https://www.nucnet.org/news/regulator-approves-pickering-operation-to-end-of-2026-as-refurbishment-plans-advance-10-2-2024"}}],"queue":null,"friction":{"level":"High","wait":"3-5 years","measure":"proxy","has_detail":true},"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"triangulated","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":55,"mid_usd_per_mwh":78,"high_usd_per_mwh":100,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"triangulated","public_fragments":3,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes","cost_components":[{"name":"Wholesale energy (HOEP)","usd_per_mwh":18,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"IESO Global Adjustment","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://www.ieso.ca/power-data/price-overview/global-adjustment","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["energy"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Global Adjustment","usd_per_mwh":48,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"IESO Global Adjustment","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://www.ieso.ca/power-data/price-overview/global-adjustment","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["riders"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Network & delivery","usd_per_mwh":9,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"IESO Global Adjustment","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://www.ieso.ca/power-data/price-overview/global-adjustment","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories, covering transmission, distribution in one line","confidence":"bundled_allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned, and covering more than one cost category in a single line. Neither the total nor the split within it was separately observed.","covers_categories":["transmission","distribution"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Other & regulatory","usd_per_mwh":3,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"IESO Global Adjustment","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://www.ieso.ca/power-data/price-overview/global-adjustment","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["riders"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"}],"component_status":{"arithmetic_integrity":true,"evidence_reconciliation":"not_independently_reconciled","independently_sourced_lines":0,"total_lines":4,"bundled":[],"text":"The delivered-cost band is the compiled result. The component lines are an estimated allocation of its midpoint, not separately observed figures.","provenance_summary":{"by_state":{"estimated_allocation":4},"usd_by_state":{"estimated_allocation":78},"evidenced_share_pct":0,"lines_awaiting_evidence":["Wholesale energy (HOEP)","Global Adjustment","Network & delivery","Other & regulatory"],"what_would_close_them":"A separately sourced or tariff-derived figure for each category, with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not these lines.","version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"category_coverage":{"energy":{"status":"estimated","line":"Wholesale energy (HOEP)","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced wholesale or tariff energy figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"capacity":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No capacity or resource adequacy figure is held for this market."},"transmission":{"status":"bundled","line":"Network & delivery","combined_with":["distribution"],"line_is_sourced":false,"line_provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","source":null,"source_url":null,"effective":null,"formula":null,"missing_evidence":"A separate transmission figure, or a sourced apportionment of the Network & delivery line."},"distribution":{"status":"bundled","line":"Network & delivery","combined_with":["transmission"],"line_is_sourced":false,"line_provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","source":null,"source_url":null,"effective":null,"formula":null,"missing_evidence":"A separate distribution figure, or a sourced apportionment of the Network & delivery line."},"demand_charges":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No demand charges figure is held for this market."},"ancillary":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No ancillary services and uplift figure is held for this market."},"riders":{"status":"estimated","line":"Global Adjustment","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced riders and unavoidable regulatory charges figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"carbon":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No carbon-related charges figure is held for this market."},"taxes":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No recurring taxes figure is held for this market."},"connection_capital":{"status":"not_applicable","reason":"Outside the recurring $/MWh boundary by definition."}},"category_vocabulary_version":"cost-categories-1.0","capacity_cross_check":null,"method_version":"cost-components-1.0"},"component_source":["IESO Global Adjustment","https://www.ieso.ca/power-data/price-overview/global-adjustment"]},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":{"defect":"#322","status":"corrected_below_own_fossil_floor","withdrawn":"2026-09-09","corrected":"2026-09-09","headline":"Ontario carbon intensity corrected: it was below the floor its own fuel mix implies","version":"carbon-correction-1.0","field":"grid.carbon_intensity_g","defects_closed":["#322"],"full_record_and_superseded_values_at":"https://powergridiq.com/data/corrections.json","url":"https://powergridiq.com/corrections#carbon-ontario"},"carbon_official_reference":{"publisher":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","publication":"National Inventory Report 1990-2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada","table":"A7-7","jurisdiction":"Ontario","year":"2024","preliminary":true,"unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","boundary":"operational_combustion","boundary_label":"generation_intensity","boundary_quote":"A “generation intensity” indicator is derived to reflect the GHG emissions intensity of electricity as it is delivered to the electricity grid.","generation_intensity":64.909,"consumption_intensity_not_adopted":73.313,"why_consumption_not_adopted":"SF6 is not combustion, and the denominator is not generation. This is a wider boundary than operational_combustion. Publishing it as if it were operational would repeat the mixed-boundary defect corrected on 8 September.","scope_excludes":"autoproducers (main activity producers only)","licence":"Open Government Licence - Canada","url":"https://data-donnees.ec.gc.ca/data/substances/monitor/canada-s-official-greenhouse-gas-inventory/C-Tables-Electricity-Canada-Provinces-Territories/","read_on":"2026-09-09","published_value":37,"published_value_basis":"derived_by_powergridiq_from_stated_mix","official_value":64.9,"difference_published_minus_official":-27.9,"which_one_is_served_by_this_api":"published_value","adoption_status":"not_adopted_pending_review","why_not_adopted":"Publication of changed carbon intensities is on the approval list, and this changes nine at once, which is separately a mass numerical correction. Two of the nine were corrected sixteen hours ago under carbon-correction-1.0, so this would be the second movement of the same field in one day and the public record has to say so plainly.","what_this_means_for_the_rating":"Nothing either way. carbon_intensity_g is not an input to the PGIQ Rating -- the carbon pillar is a separate, assessed field -- so neither the published value nor the official one moves a tier, score, pillar or outlook.","caveats":["Annex 7 states: \"The analysis in this section only includes main activity producers.\" Autoproducers -- industrial sites generating for their own use, such as pulp mills and refinery cogeneration -- are excluded from both the emissions and the generation. A grid average that included them would differ, and in a province with heavy industrial self-generation it would differ materially.","The 2024 column carries footnote a, \"Preliminary data\". It is the current official figure and it is expected to be revised in a later submission.","Annex 7 footnote 1: Statistics Canada occasionally revises historic data, which can change values across the whole series, not just the latest year. A figure adopted from this table is a figure that will move."],"observed_generation_mix_2024":{"gas_pct":15.52,"coal_pct":0,"all_combustion_pct":15.87,"total_generation_gwh":161745.624,"basis":"share of electricity GENERATED, main activity producers, ECCC Annex 7","stated_fuel_mix_on_this_record_is":"a different and unsourced quantity. It is not known to be a generation share, and where the two can be compared they differ in both directions."}},"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Limited","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":0,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"assessed","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.nucnet.org/news/regulator-approves-pickering-operation-to-end-of-2026-as-refurbishment-plans-advance-10-2-2024"},{"layer":"Connection friction","method":"proxy","vintage":"2025/26","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.torys.com/our-latest-thinking/publications/2025/07/connecting-data-centres-in-ontario"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"triangulated","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.ieso.ca/power-data/price-overview/global-adjustment"}]},"outlook":"Negative","confidence":"High","under_review":false,"thesis":"A cheap, clean nuclear-and-hydro base, but availability is tightening through the nuclear-refurbishment cycle and Bill 40 introduces managed, economic-benefit-prioritized connections for large data centers. Strong, but getting more selective.","pillars":{"access":60,"availability":58,"cost":92,"momentum":58,"carbon":88},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Managed access: Bill 40 (2025) lets the Minister prioritize large data-center connections by economic benefit; approved projects proceed, new ones face selection.","availability":"Tightening availability: nuclear-refurbishment outages and demand growth are narrowing the practical margin.","cost":"Cheap power: low regulated wholesale, a continued advantage.","momentum":"Moderate momentum: a real and growing Toronto-area market.","carbon":"Clean grid (~80 g), nuclear and hydro led."},"offtake_opportunity_index":42,"demand_hunger":38,"build_feasibility":30,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":7,"bess_arbitrage_pct":40,"solar_capture_pct":102,"wind_capture_pct":100},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Refurbished nuclear units return and restore supply margin.","New supply procurement keeps pace with demand."],"downgrade":["Refurbishment outages plus demand growth tighten supply further.","Bill 40 prioritization excludes merchant greenfield."]},"risks":["Nuclear-refurbishment timeline.","Connection prioritization for new large loads."],"peers":{"like":"Quebec (managed access, clean, cheap)","ahead":"Alberta on openness","behind":"ERCOT on speed"},"sources":[{"label":"Ontario Bill 40, Torys","url":"https://www.torys.com/our-latest-thinking/publications/2025/06/bill-40"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 2 Strong assigned.","trigger":null},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":18,"carbon_intensity_g":37,"renewable_pct":34,"renewable_generation_share_pct":34,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":90,"fuel_mix":{"nuclear":56,"hydro":29,"wind":4,"solar":1,"gas":10,"biofuel":0},"demand_mw":15655,"capacity_mw":37204,"imports_mw":185,"exports_mw":1513,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":22074,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"nuclear","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M3 Project-ready","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2026-11-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/ontario","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"independently_compiled","label":"Independently compiled","means":"The band is assembled from multiple sourced, dated and applicable published figures. It is not a single benchmark and it is not a tariff reconstruction.","reproducible":"partially"},"component":{"total_lines":4,"reproducible_lines":0,"states":["estimated_allocation"],"all_lines_are_estimated_allocations":true,"independently_reproducible":false,"illustrative":true,"notice":"Illustrative allocation of the compiled midpoint. Component lines are not separately sourced and should not be interpreted as observed tariff charges.","notice_short":"Illustrative allocation — lines not separately sourced","vocabulary_version":"evidence-layers-1.0"},"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}