{"id":"pacific-northwest","rid":"PACW","name":"Pacific Northwest","flag":"🇺🇸","group":"us","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":2,"tier_name":"Strong","score":69,"pillar_score":75,"pillar_tier":2,"pillar_tier_name":"Strong","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"elevated","dock":6,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med-High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"A dayslong cold snap over Martin Luther King weekend in January 2024 brought the region dangerously close to rolling outages."},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"elevated","measure":"assessed","note":"The Northwest holds most US hydro capacity, so a dry hydro year combined with an extended cold snap is the region's rolling-blackout risk; BPA has warned of a widening resource gap and took large drought-driven revenue losses.","sources":[{"label":"PNW energy-shortage risk in extreme conditions (Spokesman)","url":"https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2025/oct/22/pacific-northwest-could-face-energy-shortage-durin/"},{"label":"Drought cuts PNW hydropower (EIA)","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63664"}]},"read":"Reliability flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":6,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"mixed","direction":"stable","why":"BPA is federally administered and outside FERC's Section 206 orders; it has paused its long-term queue under a Grid Access Transformation Project and is weighing readiness requirements and a 13 MW large-load threshold. Transmission is available except in data-centre pockets like central Oregon and the Portland metro, where about 18 GW of BPA's 24 GW load request is data centres.","what_would_change_it":"The Grid Access Transformation reform reopening a clear queue with firm connection dates for large loads.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0"},"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":{"active_gw":130,"wait_months":null,"has_detail":true,"wait_band":"4-5 years"},"friction":null,"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":null,"territory_count":51},"reliability_metrics":{"saidi_min":152.68,"saidi_year":"2024","forward_adequacy":null,"measure":"historical utility-territory delivery performance","standard":"MIXED","standard_note":"mixed methods: IEEE 96%; respondent-defined 4% of customers. Major event days are excluded throughout; the methods differ only in how those days are identified, a smaller difference than the spread between the utilities themselves. Constituents below carry their own standard.","evidence_role":"market_context","by_serving_utility":[{"customers":1240043,"saidi_minutes":203,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"Puget Sound Energy Inc","utility_id":15500,"weight":0.1921},{"customers":942296,"saidi_minutes":133,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Portland General Electric Co","utility_id":15248,"weight":0.146},{"customers":638000,"saidi_minutes":107.57,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"PacifiCorp","utility_id":14354,"weight":0.0988},{"customers":621746,"saidi_minutes":164.01,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"ID","utility":"Idaho Power Co","utility_id":9191,"weight":0.0963},{"customers":537470,"saidi_minutes":110.8,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"City of Seattle - (WA)","utility_id":16868,"weight":0.0833},{"customers":386741,"saidi_minutes":181.4,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Snohomish County","utility_id":17470,"weight":0.0599},{"customers":270134,"saidi_minutes":112,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"Avista Corp","utility_id":20169,"weight":0.0418},{"customers":233669,"saidi_minutes":59,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Clark County - (WA)","utility_id":3660,"weight":0.0362},{"customers":179969,"saidi_minutes":80.45,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"City of Tacoma - (WA)","utility_id":18429,"weight":0.0279},{"customers":145203,"saidi_minutes":165,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"ID","utility":"Avista Corp","utility_id":20169,"weight":0.0225},{"customers":138254,"saidi_minutes":101.99,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PacifiCorp","utility_id":14354,"weight":0.0214},{"customers":102048,"saidi_minutes":65.26,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"City of Eugene - (OR)","utility_id":6022,"weight":0.0158},{"customers":89035,"saidi_minutes":129.44,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"ID","utility":"PacifiCorp","utility_id":14354,"weight":0.0138},{"customers":56863,"saidi_minutes":39.5,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Benton County","utility_id":1579,"weight":0.0088},{"customers":54257,"saidi_minutes":125.6,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Cowlitz County","utility_id":4442,"weight":0.0084},{"customers":51143,"saidi_minutes":95.23,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Chelan County","utility_id":3413,"weight":0.0079},{"customers":48046,"saidi_minutes":278,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"Inland Power & Light Company","utility_id":8699,"weight":0.0074},{"customers":45710,"saidi_minutes":202,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Grays Harbor County","utility_id":7548,"weight":0.0071},{"customers":36547,"saidi_minutes":269.34,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 3 of Mason County","utility_id":15419,"weight":0.0057},{"customers":35583,"saidi_minutes":604.74,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Lewis County","utility_id":10944,"weight":0.0055},{"customers":35518,"saidi_minutes":136.07,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"Peninsula Light Company","utility_id":14668,"weight":0.0055},{"customers":35015,"saidi_minutes":55.4,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Franklin County","utility_id":6716,"weight":0.0054},{"customers":34499,"saidi_minutes":125.04,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"ID","utility":"Kootenai Electric Cooperative","utility_id":10454,"weight":0.0053},{"customers":33769,"saidi_minutes":213.1,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Clallam County","utility_id":3644,"weight":0.0052},{"customers":33147,"saidi_minutes":11.61,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"City of Springfield - (OR)","utility_id":17839,"weight":0.0051},{"customers":32782,"saidi_minutes":72.4,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"ID","utility":"City of Idaho Falls - (ID)","utility_id":9187,"weight":0.0051},{"customers":31823,"saidi_minutes":142.15,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Oregon Trail El Cons Coop, Inc","utility_id":14109,"weight":0.0049},{"customers":27563,"saidi_minutes":94,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"City of Richland - (WA)","utility_id":15979,"weight":0.0043},{"customers":23819,"saidi_minutes":354.1,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Consumers Power, Inc","utility_id":4743,"weight":0.0037},{"customers":22175,"saidi_minutes":110.1,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Okanogan County","utility_id":14055,"weight":0.0034},{"customers":21517,"saidi_minutes":369,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Midstate Electric Coop, Inc","utility_id":12439,"weight":0.0033},{"customers":21166,"saidi_minutes":424,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Jefferson County","utility_id":59013,"weight":0.0033},{"customers":20817,"saidi_minutes":54.54,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Columbia River Peoples Ut Dist","utility_id":40438,"weight":0.0032},{"customers":20556,"saidi_minutes":19.66,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Salem Electric - (OR)","utility_id":16555,"weight":0.0032},{"customers":20146,"saidi_minutes":434.79,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Idaho Power Co","utility_id":9191,"weight":0.0031},{"customers":19609,"saidi_minutes":1219.7,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"ID","utility":"Northern Lights, Inc","utility_id":13758,"weight":0.003},{"customers":19473,"saidi_minutes":99.06,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Umatilla Electric Coop Assn","utility_id":19325,"weight":0.003},{"customers":18713,"saidi_minutes":181.3,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Coos-Curry Electric Coop, Inc","utility_id":4317,"weight":0.0029},{"customers":18225,"saidi_minutes":6.78,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"ID","utility":"Fall River Rural Elec Coop Inc","utility_id":6169,"weight":0.0028},{"customers":16453,"saidi_minutes":156.01,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"Benton Rural Electric Assn","utility_id":1625,"weight":0.0025},{"customers":15251,"saidi_minutes":212.5,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"Orcas Power & Light Coop","utility_id":14170,"weight":0.0024},{"customers":14254,"saidi_minutes":384,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"PUD No 1 of Klickitat County","utility_id":10393,"weight":0.0022},{"customers":13468,"saidi_minutes":826.4,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Lane Electric Coop Inc","utility_id":10681,"weight":0.0021},{"customers":10745,"saidi_minutes":55.66,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"City of Centralia - (WA)","utility_id":3295,"weight":0.0017},{"customers":10490,"saidi_minutes":34.84,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Northern Wasco County PUD","utility_id":13788,"weight":0.0016},{"customers":9477,"saidi_minutes":191.77,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"Big Bend Electric Coop, Inc","utility_id":1723,"weight":0.0015},{"customers":7513,"saidi_minutes":40.33,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"ID","utility":"United Electric Co-op, Inc - (ID)","utility_id":19502,"weight":0.0012},{"customers":6507,"saidi_minutes":213.9,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"Columbia Rural Elec Assn, Inc","utility_id":4041,"weight":0.001},{"customers":4777,"saidi_minutes":517.86,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"OR","utility":"Clatskanie Peoples Util Dist","utility_id":28541,"weight":0.0007},{"customers":3056,"saidi_minutes":198.88,"standard":"IEEE_STANDARD","state":"ID","utility":"Salmon River Electric Coop Inc","utility_id":16565,"weight":0.0005},{"customers":14,"saidi_minutes":0.89,"standard":"OTHER_STANDARD","state":"WA","utility":"Northern Lights, Inc","utility_id":13758,"weight":0}],"evidence_role_basis":"comparison and monitoring only: a customer-weighted regional blend is not the record of the utility that would serve a specific site"},"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":null,"cost_availability":{"label":"Customer-specific cost","means":"Cost here is set by a bilateral arrangement rather than a posted rate, so no standardized band can represent it.","user_action":"Engage the utility directly. No published band is coming, and waiting for one loses time.","class":"customer_specific","band_published":false},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"inapplicable","answerable":false,"label":"Inapplicable evidence","means":"The evidence we hold cites a tariff or service the standard archetype cannot purchase. It may be accurate about some other customer and still say nothing about this one.","remedy":"Obtain evidence for a service the archetype could actually contract. The existing figures cannot be repaired by recalculation.","also_holds":["applicable_evidence_incomplete"],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":{"defect":"#305","reason":"The published band was derived from the Bonneville Power Administration priority-firm rate, which a new large load cannot obtain: federal hydro allocations are largely committed and a new customer would pay a market premium above the federal rate. A tariff the standard archetype cannot purchase may not set a delivered-cost band.","withdrawn":"2026-08-20","restore_when":"A delivered-cost band is rebuilt from a source a new 100 MW high-load-factor customer could actually contract, with a stated cost boundary, effective date, method and confidence, reconciled like every other published market.","related_defects":["#305 band not derived from an obtainable tariff","#315 tariff pilot outstanding"],"consequence":"No delivered-cost band is published for this market. Cost-dependent conclusions return insufficient_evidence rather than a substituted value."},"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Substantial","coverage_dimensions":2,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":1,"data_layers":2,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability","method":"measured","vintage":"2024","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/"},{"layer":"Interconnection queue","method":"modelled","vintage":"end-2025 (LBNL 2026)","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://emp.lbl.gov/queues"}]},"outlook":"Negative","confidence":"High","under_review":false,"thesis":"Cheap, clean hydro and a proven hub. It sits just below the top tier because the BPA connection queue is tightening: the fundamentals are excellent, but the path to actually connect is getting harder.","pillars":{"access":55,"availability":83,"cost":90,"momentum":70,"carbon":88},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Access is tightening: the BPA interconnection queue is lengthening as demand surges.","availability":"High availability: abundant, firm hydro across the Northwest.","cost":"Cheap power: among the lowest US wholesale costs.","momentum":"Proven momentum: long-established hyperscale clusters (central Washington, Oregon).","carbon":"Clean grid (~70 g), hydro-led."},"offtake_opportunity_index":67,"demand_hunger":41,"build_feasibility":55,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":15,"bess_arbitrage_pct":60,"solar_capture_pct":95,"wind_capture_pct":101,"effective_competing_supply_gw":32.5},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["BPA expands transmission and clears the queue.","Continued hydro-backed clean-power advantage attracts firm tenants."],"downgrade":["Queue and transmission constraints harden.","Dry-year hydro variability."]},"risks":["BPA interconnection backlog.","Hydrological variability."],"peers":{"like":"Quebec / Norway (cheap clean hydro)","ahead":"on cost","behind":"ERCOT on access"},"sources":[{"label":"EIA / BPA regional data","url":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Jun 2026","type":"Affirmed","note":"Seattle's siting moratorium is consistent with the existing negative outlook; localised, not system-wide. Tier affirmed.","trigger":"Seattle data-centre moratorium (Jun 2026)"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":25,"carbon_intensity_g":80,"renewable_pct":79,"renewable_generation_share_pct":79,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":87,"fuel_mix":{"hydro":60,"wind":15,"gas":11,"nuclear":8,"solar":3,"coal":2,"biofuel":1},"demand_mw":14000,"capacity_mw":32000,"imports_mw":500,"exports_mw":2000,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":19320,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"hydro","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"not_assessed","overall_permits":"Not assessed. Treat as an open diligence item; absence of a finding is not evidence of low risk.","insufficient_evidence":true,"unassessed_required_fields":["cost"],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"not_assessed","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost"},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost"},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost"},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost"},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: cost, local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"held","method":"measured"},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2026-10-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/pacific-northwest","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"withdrawn","label":"Withdrawn","means":"A band was published, found unsupported, and removed under a dated correction.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}