{"id":"philippines","rid":"PH","name":"Philippines","flag":"🇵🇭","group":"asia","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":4,"tier_name":"Constrained","score":38,"pillar_score":45,"pillar_tier":4,"pillar_tier_name":"Constrained","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"elevated","dock":7,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med","delivery_transmission":{"level":"none"},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"watch","measure":"modelled","note":"Reliability outside Metro Manila is weaker, with provincial distribution utilities often lacking the redundant feeders that hyperscale uptime needs.","sources":[{"label":"Philippine data-center power constraints (Filipino Engineer)","url":"https://filipinoengineer.com/blog/2026/07/powering-the-philippine-data-center-boom-government-programs-power-constraints-and-the-path-forward.html"}]},"forward_capacity":{"level":"elevated","measure":"event-based","note":"The Luzon grid issued 14 yellow and 3 red alerts in the 2024 dry season and a 2025 yellow alert with just 659 MW of reserve. Thin reserve margins put a large new load at real risk during peak and dry-season conditions.","sources":[{"label":"Philippines data-center push faces power reality check (Philstar)","url":"https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/06/29/2538394/philippines-data-center-push-faces-power-reality-check"}]},"read":"Reliability flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":7,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"By 2027","event":"1.5 GW of data-center capacity targeted (DICT)","why":"An early marker of the roughly 18 GW national ambition; tests whether the alert-prone Luzon grid can keep pace.","source":{"label":"Philippines data-center push faces power reality check (Philstar)","url":"https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/06/29/2538394/philippines-data-center-push-faces-power-reality-check"}}],"queue":null,"friction":{"level":"Moderate","wait":"2-4 years","measure":"proxy","has_detail":true},"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"triangulated","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":140,"mid_usd_per_mwh":170,"high_usd_per_mwh":210,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"triangulated","public_fragments":2,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes","cost_components":[{"name":"Generation (WESM & PSA blend)","usd_per_mwh":100,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"Meralco rates and charges","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://company.meralco.com.ph/news-and-advisories/rates-archives","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":null,"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Transmission (NGCP)","usd_per_mwh":25,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"Meralco rates and charges","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://company.meralco.com.ph/news-and-advisories/rates-archives","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":null,"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Distribution & system loss","usd_per_mwh":35,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"Meralco rates and charges","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://company.meralco.com.ph/news-and-advisories/rates-archives","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":null,"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Taxes & other","usd_per_mwh":10,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"Meralco rates and charges","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://company.meralco.com.ph/news-and-advisories/rates-archives","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"triangulated","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":null,"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"}],"component_status":{"arithmetic_integrity":true,"evidence_reconciliation":"not_independently_reconciled","independently_sourced_lines":0,"total_lines":4,"bundled":[],"text":"The delivered-cost band is the compiled result. The component lines are an estimated allocation of its midpoint, not separately observed figures.","provenance_summary":{"by_state":{"estimated_allocation":4},"usd_by_state":{"estimated_allocation":170},"evidenced_share_pct":0,"lines_awaiting_evidence":["Generation (WESM & PSA blend)","Transmission (NGCP)","Distribution & system loss","Taxes & other"],"what_would_close_them":"A separately sourced or tariff-derived figure for each category, with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not these lines.","version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"category_coverage":{"energy":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No wholesale or tariff energy figure is held for this market."},"capacity":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No capacity or resource adequacy figure is held for this market."},"transmission":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No transmission figure is held for this market."},"distribution":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No distribution figure is held for this market."},"demand_charges":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No demand charges figure is held for this market."},"ancillary":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No ancillary services and uplift figure is held for this market."},"riders":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No riders and unavoidable regulatory charges figure is held for this market."},"carbon":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No carbon-related charges figure is held for this market."},"taxes":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No recurring taxes figure is held for this market."},"connection_capital":{"status":"not_applicable","reason":"Outside the recurring $/MWh boundary by definition."}},"category_vocabulary_version":"cost-categories-1.0","capacity_cross_check":null,"method_version":"cost-components-1.0"},"component_source":["Meralco rates and charges","https://company.meralco.com.ph/news-and-advisories/rates-archives"]},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Limited","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":0,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"assessed","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/06/29/2538394/philippines-data-center-push-faces-power-reality-check"},{"layer":"Connection friction","method":"proxy","vintage":"2025/26","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://meralcomain.s3.ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/2026-02/positioning_the_philippines_for_hyperscale_data_center_growth.pdf"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"triangulated","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eco-business.com/news/high-costs-higher-risks-can-the-philippines-power-its-data-centre-hub-ambitions/"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med","under_review":false,"thesis":"Big data-center ambition (about 18 GW targeted) and a real wholesale market, but a coal-heavy, alert-prone Luzon grid and high, volatile power cost keep it a friction market for a new large load.","pillars":{"access":45,"availability":38,"cost":35,"momentum":78,"carbon":25},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Constrained access on the Luzon grid; NGCP is investing about 485 billion pesos in transmission, but provincial reliability lags Metro Manila.","availability":"Weak availability: the Luzon grid logged 14 yellow and 3 red alerts in the 2024 dry season and thin reserves in 2025.","cost":"High, volatile cost: on-grid tariffs around $170 to $180 per MWh, with WESM peaks near 12 pesos per kWh and peso weakness lifting dollar-linked costs.","momentum":"Very high momentum: a DICT target of about 18 GW of new capacity and 1.5 GW by 2027.","carbon":"High carbon: a coal-heavy generation mix."},"offtake_opportunity_index":99,"demand_hunger":66,"build_feasibility":65,"supplier_signals":null,"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["NGCP transmission build and 10.2 GW of new renewables-plus-storage ease supply.","Contracted PSAs and self-generation stabilise cost for large loads."],"downgrade":["Dry-season alerts and thin reserves persist.","Peso weakness keeps dollar-linked power costs high."]},"risks":["Grid reliability, especially outside Metro Manila.","High and volatile power cost."],"peers":{"like":"Indonesia and Thailand (high-growth, high-friction Southeast Asian grids)","ahead":"on momentum","behind":"on reliability, cost and carbon"},"sources":[{"label":"Philippine data-center power constraints (Filipino Engineer)","url":"https://filipinoengineer.com/blog/2026/07/powering-the-philippine-data-center-boom-government-programs-power-constraints-and-the-path-forward.html"},{"label":"Philippines on-grid tariff about $178 per MWh (Eco-Business)","url":"https://www.eco-business.com/news/high-costs-higher-risks-can-the-philippines-power-its-data-centre-hub-ambitions/"},{"label":"NGCP transmission development plan (REGlobal)","url":"https://reglobal.org/philippines-grid-expansion-ngcp-focuses-on-renewables-integration/"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 4 Constrained assigned.","trigger":null},"grid":null,"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M3 Project-ready","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"not_assessed","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-02-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/philippines","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"independently_compiled","label":"Independently compiled","means":"The band is assembled from multiple sourced, dated and applicable published figures. It is not a single benchmark and it is not a tariff reconstruction.","reproducible":"partially"},"component":{"total_lines":4,"reproducible_lines":0,"states":["estimated_allocation"],"all_lines_are_estimated_allocations":true,"independently_reproducible":false,"illustrative":true,"notice":"Illustrative allocation of the compiled midpoint. Component lines are not separately sourced and should not be interpreted as observed tariff charges.","notice_short":"Illustrative allocation — lines not separately sourced","vocabulary_version":"evidence-layers-1.0"},"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}