{"id":"quebec","rid":"QC","name":"Quebec","flag":"🇨🇦","group":"canada","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":2,"tier_name":"Strong","score":67,"pillar_score":74,"pillar_tier":2,"pillar_tier_name":"Strong","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"elevated","dock":7,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med-High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"Major-event damage is largely distribution and sub-transmission; a transmission-connected firm-service load faces materially less exposure, though restoration during large storms is slow.","sources":[{"label":"Hydro-Quebec 2023 distribution activities","url":"https://www.hydroquebec.com/documents-data/official-publications/distribution-activities-2023.html"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"elevated","measure":"measured","note":"Storm-fragile delivery: the Apr 5, 2023 ice storm alone was about 59% of that year's unadjusted SAIDI, and 2024 unadjusted SAIDI was 436 minutes per customer (roughly half of 2023). Major-event-adjusted reliability is stable, so the risk is major-event frequency and slow restoration, not blue-sky performance.","sources":[{"label":"Hydro-Quebec 2024 accountability report","url":"https://news.hydroquebec.com/news/press-releases/all-quebec/hydro-quebec-positive-assessment-2024-distribution-activities-published-annual-accountability-report.html"}]},"forward_capacity":{"level":"none"},"read":"Reliability flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":7,"regulatory_momentum":{"level":"mixed","direction":"stable","why":"Hydro-Quebec's proposed dedicated data-centre tariff roughly doubles the industrial rate and is pending the Regie de l'energie; managed pricing inside an otherwise open, low-cost system.","what_would_change_it":"The Regie approving a workable dedicated rate with a clear, predictable allocation process.","scope":"The regulatory and permitting environment for connecting a new large load. An opinion on a dated record, not a measurement.","vocabulary_version":"regulatory-momentum-1.0","beyond_the_grid":{"text":"New supply depends on Indigenous consent: a Quebec First Nation voted to reject a landmark Hydro-Quebec deal, and the utility now frames its large hydro expansion as ongoing partnership with First Nations and Inuit communities rather than one-off settlements.","sources":[{"label":"Globe and Mail","url":"https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-quebec-first-nation-votes-on-landmark-hydro-deal/"},{"label":"BLG","url":"https://www.blg.com/en/insights/2026/07/data-centres-in-canada-current-state"}]},"for_new_supply":"Hydro-Quebec's Action Plan 2035 (about 185 billion CAD) is the new-supply pipeline, developed as partnership with First Nations and Inuit communities."},"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"H2 2026","event":"Regie de l'energie ruling on Hydro-Quebec's dedicated data-centre tariff","why":"Would set the roughly 13 cents CAD per kWh rate a new data center pays, versus the legacy industrial rate.","source":{"label":"Hydro-Quebec / CBC","url":"https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/hydro-quebec-rates-data-centres-9.7099056"}},{"date":"By Oct 2026","event":"Quebec general election, with the Churchill Falls agreement still non-binding","why":"The Parti Quebecois has said it would scrap the deal; Premier Frechette has publicly cautioned against it, arguing there is no alternative source for the megawatts involved. The first real test of whether the 17 Aug announcement becomes a commitment.","source":{"label":"VOCM","url":"https://vocm.com/2026/08/18/307309/"}},{"date":"End 2026","event":"Definitive binding agreements on Churchill Falls and Gull Island targeted","why":"Until they are executed nothing is contractually settled, and the federal Major Projects Office referral does not take effect.","source":{"label":"VOCM","url":"https://vocm.com/2026/08/17/cf-deal-draft/"}}],"queue":null,"friction":{"level":"Severe","wait":"4-6 years (authorization-gated)","measure":"proxy","has_detail":true},"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"triangulated","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":55,"mid_usd_per_mwh":85,"high_usd_per_mwh":115,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"triangulated","public_fragments":3,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes"},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":{"publisher":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","publication":"National Inventory Report 1990-2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada","table":"A7-6","jurisdiction":"Quebec","year":"2024","preliminary":true,"unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","boundary":"operational_combustion","boundary_label":"generation_intensity","boundary_quote":"A “generation intensity” indicator is derived to reflect the GHG emissions intensity of electricity as it is delivered to the electricity grid.","generation_intensity":2.097,"consumption_intensity_not_adopted":2.565,"why_consumption_not_adopted":"SF6 is not combustion, and the denominator is not generation. This is a wider boundary than operational_combustion. Publishing it as if it were operational would repeat the mixed-boundary defect corrected on 8 September.","scope_excludes":"autoproducers (main activity producers only)","licence":"Open Government Licence - Canada","url":"https://data-donnees.ec.gc.ca/data/substances/monitor/canada-s-official-greenhouse-gas-inventory/C-Tables-Electricity-Canada-Provinces-Territories/","read_on":"2026-09-09","published_value":5,"published_value_basis":"hand_authored_undeclared_basis","official_value":2.1,"difference_published_minus_official":2.9,"which_one_is_served_by_this_api":"published_value","adoption_status":"not_adopted_pending_review","why_not_adopted":"Publication of changed carbon intensities is on the approval list, and this changes nine at once, which is separately a mass numerical correction. Two of the nine were corrected sixteen hours ago under carbon-correction-1.0, so this would be the second movement of the same field in one day and the public record has to say so plainly.","what_this_means_for_the_rating":"Nothing either way. carbon_intensity_g is not an input to the PGIQ Rating -- the carbon pillar is a separate, assessed field -- so neither the published value nor the official one moves a tier, score, pillar or outlook.","caveats":["Annex 7 states: \"The analysis in this section only includes main activity producers.\" Autoproducers -- industrial sites generating for their own use, such as pulp mills and refinery cogeneration -- are excluded from both the emissions and the generation. A grid average that included them would differ, and in a province with heavy industrial self-generation it would differ materially.","The 2024 column carries footnote a, \"Preliminary data\". It is the current official figure and it is expected to be revised in a later submission.","Annex 7 footnote 1: Statistics Canada occasionally revises historic data, which can change values across the whole series, not just the latest year. A figure adopted from this table is a figure that will move."],"observed_generation_mix_2024":{"gas_pct":0,"coal_pct":0,"all_combustion_pct":0.8,"total_generation_gwh":166600.566,"basis":"share of electricity GENERATED, main activity producers, ECCC Annex 7","stated_fuel_mix_on_this_record_is":"a different and unsourced quantity. It is not known to be a generation share, and where the two can be compared they differ in both directions."}},"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":1,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"measured","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://news.hydroquebec.com/news/press-releases/all-quebec/hydro-quebec-positive-assessment-2024-distribution-activities-published-annual-accountability-report.html"},{"layer":"Connection friction","method":"proxy","vintage":"2025/26","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.osler.com/en/insights/reports/2025-legal-outlook/powering-ai-canadas-evolving-electricity-grid-connection-policies/"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"triangulated","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.hydroquebec.com/business/customer-space/rates/rate-l-industrial-rate-large-power-customers.html"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med-High","under_review":true,"thesis":"World-class cheap, clean, abundant hydro. The catch is access: new loads above 5 MW need ministerial sign-off under Bill 69, and a proposed data-centre tariff near 13 cents per kWh lifts the price. Approved projects still connect, so this is a managed gate, not a closed door.","pillars":{"access":55,"availability":90,"cost":100,"momentum":30,"carbon":100},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Managed access: Bill 69 (2025) requires ministerial sign-off for new loads over 5 MW, and Hydro-Quebec has proposed a ~13 cents/kWh data-center rate (H2 2026, pending the Regie). Approved projects proceed; this is a high bar, not a shut door.","availability":"Exceptional availability: Hydro-Quebec reservoir hydro is a large, firm, dispatchable surplus.","cost":"Cheapest power on the board, even after the proposed tariff it remains competitive North-America-wide.","momentum":"Momentum stalled: historically attracted AWS/Google/Microsoft, but new large-load growth is paused under the governance regime.","carbon":"Among the cleanest grids on earth (~5 g), almost entirely hydro."},"offtake_opportunity_index":19,"demand_hunger":27,"build_feasibility":16,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":2,"bess_arbitrage_pct":60,"solar_capture_pct":90,"wind_capture_pct":101},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Policy leans into AI growth: streamlined approvals or a dedicated large-load carve-out.","New supply from the Action Plan 2035 frees allocation."],"downgrade":["The gate tightens further or the tariff rises sharply.","Strict prioritization keeps new greenfield hyperscale out."]},"risks":["Policy and tariff uncertainty for unapproved new builds.","Allocation competition with electrification and exports."],"peers":{"like":"Ontario (managed access, clean, cheap)","ahead":"Manitoba on openness","behind":"ERCOT on speed-to-power"},"sources":[{"label":"Hydro-Quebec data-centre rate, CBC","url":"https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/hydro-quebec-rates-data-centres-9.7099056"},{"label":"Bill 69, Stikeman Elliott","url":"https://stikeman.com/en-ca/kh/canadian-energy-law/quebec-government-adopts-bill-69-to-modernize-energy-legislation"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Jul 2026","type":"Under review","note":"The Cost pillar (currently 100) is placed under review. On closer analysis, the proposed dedicated data-centre rate of about 13 cents CAD per kWh (roughly $95 US per MWh) puts Quebec mid-pack for a new data center rather than lowest in the set; the cheap Rate L (about 3.8 cents) applies to general industry, not to the load we rate. Reassessing whether the Cost score overstates the advantage for a new data center. Tier likely holds; the Cost pillar may ease.","trigger":"Realized-cost review of the Hydro-Quebec data-centre tariff (Jul 2026)"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":4,"carbon_intensity_g":5,"renewable_pct":99,"renewable_generation_share_pct":99,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":99,"fuel_mix":{"hydro":94,"wind":4,"gas":1,"biofuel":1},"demand_mw":20800,"capacity_mw":47000,"imports_mw":200,"exports_mw":3200,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":26624,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"hydro","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M2 Compiled","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"M2 Compiled","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-03-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/quebec","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"independently_compiled","label":"Independently compiled","means":"The band is assembled from multiple sourced, dated and applicable published figures. It is not a single benchmark and it is not a tariff reconstruction.","reproducible":"partially"},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}