{"id":"saudi-arabia","rid":"SA","name":"Saudi Arabia","flag":"🇸🇦","group":"middle_east","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":2,"tier_name":"Strong","score":69,"pillar_score":74,"pillar_tier":2,"pillar_tier_name":"Strong","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":5,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"event-based","note":"Record-heat summers have caused localized outages when air-conditioning demand forced generating units offline, and reliability is uneven across the country.","sources":[{"label":"Record heat causing Saudi power outages","url":"https://electricityforum.com/news/saudiheatwavecreatingpoweroutages"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"watch","measure":"modelled","note":"Regional disparities between distribution operators; some areas are materially less reliable than others."},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"modelled","note":"Extreme summer cooling peaks strain supply from May to September; large capacity build is underway."},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":5,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":null,"friction":{"level":"Low","wait":"1-3 years","measure":"proxy","has_detail":true},"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"administered","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":{"usd_per_kwh":0.053,"native":"about SAR 0.20 per kWh","basis":"administered, subsidized industrial rate"},"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":50,"mid_usd_per_mwh":53,"high_usd_per_mwh":58,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"administered","public_fragments":1,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes"},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":2,"data_layers":4,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"historical","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://electricityforum.com/news/saudiheatwavecreatingpoweroutages"},{"layer":"Connection friction","method":"proxy","vintage":"2025/26","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2026/1/saudi-arabias-data-centre-expansion-regulatory-framework-and-strategic-considerations"},{"layer":"Large-user tariff","method":"administered","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.sera.gov.sa/en/systems-and-regulations/electric-tariff"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"measured","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.sera.gov.sa/en/systems-and-regulations/electric-tariff"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med","under_review":false,"thesis":"Some of the cheapest power anywhere, state-backed fast access, and a sovereign-AI surge (Humain, DataVolt). As with the UAE, the one caveat is carbon: a buyer who weights carbon heavily would rank it lower, because the grid runs on gas.","pillars":{"access":78,"availability":70,"cost":95,"momentum":58,"carbon":12},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"State-backed and fast access.","availability":"Adequate and adding availability.","cost":"Among the cheapest power globally.","momentum":"Surging AI momentum (Humain, DataVolt).","carbon":"High carbon (~600 g), oil-and-gas; the pillar that moves the rating under a carbon lens."},"offtake_opportunity_index":75,"demand_hunger":32,"build_feasibility":85,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":7,"bess_arbitrage_pct":62,"solar_capture_pct":111,"wind_capture_pct":98},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["NEOM/sovereign-AI build converts to operating capacity.","Massive solar build lowers carbon."],"downgrade":["Carbon-constrained buyers reweight away.","Water/cooling in extreme heat."]},"risks":["Carbon for RE-mandated tenants.","Concentration in state-led programs."],"peers":{"like":"UAE (state-backed, cheap, carbon-heavy)","ahead":"on cost","behind":"UAE on grid carbon (nuclear)"},"sources":[{"label":"Gulf data-center / AI build, trade press","url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 2 Strong assigned (carbon-sensitive).","trigger":null},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":12,"carbon_intensity_g":620,"renewable_pct":2,"renewable_generation_share_pct":2,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":2,"fuel_mix":{"gas":63,"oil":35,"solar":2},"demand_mw":58000,"capacity_mw":82000,"imports_mw":0,"exports_mw":0,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":82360,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M2 Compiled","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"not_assessed","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"event-based"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"modelled"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-09-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/saudi-arabia","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"estimated","label":"Estimated","means":"The band is an analyst estimate against a stated reasoning, not a sourced figure.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}