{"id":"south-africa","rid":"ZA","name":"South Africa","flag":"🇿🇦","group":"africa","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":3,"tier_name":"Workable","score":52,"pillar_score":56,"pillar_tier":3,"pillar_tier_name":"Workable","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":4,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Low","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"modelled","note":"Modelled read: multi-year load-shedding eased sharply (long clear stretches in 2025); recovery durability is the watch."},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"none"},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":4,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":null,"friction":{"level":"High","wait":"3-5 years","measure":"proxy","has_detail":true},"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"administered","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":{"usd_per_kwh":0.11,"native":"Eskom Megaflex","basis":"administered, Eskom Megaflex large-industrial tariff"},"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":92,"mid_usd_per_mwh":110,"high_usd_per_mwh":128,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"administered","public_fragments":1,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes"},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":2,"data_layers":4,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"modelled","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":null},{"layer":"Connection friction","method":"proxy","vintage":"2025/26","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eskom.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Generation_Connection_Capacity_AssessmentGCCA-2025finalfinal_rev0003.pdf"},{"layer":"Large-user tariff","method":"administered","vintage":"2026/27","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eskom.co.za/distribution/2026-2027-tariff-increase/"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"measured","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.eskom.co.za/distribution/2026-2027-tariff-increase/"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med","under_review":false,"thesis":"Africa's leading market (Teraco, hyperscaler regions), with cheap-ish power, recovering fast from load-shedding (231 days clear in 2025). Availability is the swing factor; the trajectory is up.","pillars":{"access":58,"availability":50,"cost":70,"momentum":50,"carbon":16},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Workable access; Africa's deepest data-center market.","availability":"Recovering availability: 231 consecutive days without load-shedding in 2025, EAF rising.","cost":"Cheap-ish power.","momentum":"Real momentum (Teraco, hyperscaler regions).","carbon":"High carbon (~585 g), coal-led but adding renewables."},"offtake_opportunity_index":56,"demand_hunger":41,"build_feasibility":42,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":22,"bess_arbitrage_pct":62,"solar_capture_pct":108,"wind_capture_pct":99},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["Continued Eskom recovery and renewables build.","Hyperscaler regions scale."],"downgrade":["Load-shedding returns.","Coal-carbon for RE-mandated tenants."]},"risks":["Reliability recovery durability.","Carbon."],"peers":{"like":"emerging high-carbon-but-recovering grids","ahead":"on African ecosystem","behind":"on carbon and reliability"},"sources":[{"label":"Eskom power-system status","url":"https://www.eskom.co.za/power-system-status/"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Aug 2026","type":"Affirmed","note":"Tier holds. A 441 day run and a daily EAF of 82.04%, the best since 2017, extend a recovery the rating already reflects and keep the previously set upgrade trigger live. We would want sustained performance through a full summer peak before treating this as grounds for an upgrade.","trigger":"Eskom performance update, 4 Aug 2026"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":35,"carbon_intensity_g":800,"renewable_pct":13,"renewable_generation_share_pct":13,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":17,"fuel_mix":{"coal":82,"solar":6,"wind":5,"nuclear":4,"hydro":2,"gas":1},"demand_mw":28000,"capacity_mw":50000,"imports_mw":100,"exports_mw":100,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":42000,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M2 Compiled","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"not_assessed","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"modelled"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2026-12-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/south-africa","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"estimated","label":"Estimated","means":"The band is an analyst estimate against a stated reasoning, not a sourced figure.","reproducible":false},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}