{"id":"sweden-south","rid":"SE-S","name":"Sweden South (Malmo, SE4)","flag":"🇸🇪","group":"europe","type":"market","parent":"sweden","regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":3,"tier_name":"Workable","score":55,"pillar_score":59,"pillar_tier":3,"pillar_tier_name":"Workable","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":4,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med-High","delivery_transmission":{"level":"watch","measure":"measured","note":"The load-heavy south depends on north-south transfer over a limited trunk grid and on imports from Denmark, Germany and Poland; constrained transfer can leave it exposed when the continent is short.","sources":[{"label":"Sweden north-south deficit and imports (Seoul Economic)","url":"https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/04/07/swedens-regional-electricity-pricing-draws-big-tech"}]},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none"},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"assessed","note":"SE4 runs a structural deficit and imports at 2-4x the northern price; adequacy improves only as transmission and planned southern nuclear (2030s) arrive."},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":4,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":null,"queue":null,"friction":{"level":"Moderate","wait":"2-4 years","measure":"proxy","has_detail":true},"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"modelled","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":null,"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":70,"mid_usd_per_mwh":90,"high_usd_per_mwh":115,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"modelled","public_fragments":2,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes","cost_components":[{"name":"Energy (SE4, continental-linked)","usd_per_mwh":65,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"SE4 southern Sweden electricity prices (statsskuld)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://statsskuld.se/en/elpris/se4/","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"modelled","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":null,"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Network & grid fees","usd_per_mwh":18,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"SE4 southern Sweden electricity prices (statsskuld)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://statsskuld.se/en/elpris/se4/","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"modelled","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":null,"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"},{"name":"Taxes & levies","usd_per_mwh":7,"source":null,"provenance":{"provenance_state":"estimated_allocation","provenance_state_label":"Estimated allocation","provenance_state_means":"Apportioned from a compiled total or midpoint by analyst judgement. Not independently calculated, and not corroborated by anything outside the band it came from.","derivation":"allocation_of_compiled_midpoint","derivation_note":"This line apportions the compiled midpoint. Its value was not separately observed.","source_of_band_not_line":"SE4 southern Sweden electricity prices (statsskuld)","source_url_of_band_not_line":"https://statsskuld.se/en/elpris/se4/","band_as_of":"2026","customer_applicability":"100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service","band_confidence":"modelled","as_of":"2026","method":"analyst apportionment of the compiled midpoint across categories","confidence":"allocation","confidence_note":"Apportioned from the compiled delivered-cost midpoint by analyst judgement. Not separately observed.","covers_categories":["taxes"],"corroborated_by":null,"state_vocabulary_version":"provenance-state-1.0","what_would_upgrade_it":"A separately sourced figure for this category with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not this line.","version":"line-provenance-1.1"},"evidence":"estimated_allocation"}],"component_status":{"arithmetic_integrity":true,"evidence_reconciliation":"not_independently_reconciled","independently_sourced_lines":0,"total_lines":3,"bundled":[],"text":"The delivered-cost band is the compiled result. The component lines are an estimated allocation of its midpoint, not separately observed figures.","provenance_summary":{"by_state":{"estimated_allocation":3},"usd_by_state":{"estimated_allocation":90},"evidenced_share_pct":0,"lines_awaiting_evidence":["Energy (SE4, continental-linked)","Network & grid fees","Taxes & levies"],"what_would_close_them":"A separately sourced or tariff-derived figure for each category, with its own date, method and confidence. Until then the band's provenance establishes the total only, not these lines.","version":"provenance-state-1.0"},"category_coverage":{"energy":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No wholesale or tariff energy figure is held for this market."},"capacity":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No capacity or resource adequacy figure is held for this market."},"transmission":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No transmission figure is held for this market."},"distribution":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No distribution figure is held for this market."},"demand_charges":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No demand charges figure is held for this market."},"ancillary":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No ancillary services and uplift figure is held for this market."},"riders":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No riders and unavoidable regulatory charges figure is held for this market."},"carbon":{"status":"unavailable","missing_evidence":"No carbon-related charges figure is held for this market."},"taxes":{"status":"estimated","line":"Taxes & levies","missing_evidence":"An independently sourced recurring taxes figure with its own date, method and confidence."},"connection_capital":{"status":"not_applicable","reason":"Outside the recurring $/MWh boundary by definition."}},"category_vocabulary_version":"cost-categories-1.0","capacity_cross_check":null,"method_version":"cost-components-1.0"},"component_source":["SE4 southern Sweden electricity prices (statsskuld)","https://statsskuld.se/en/elpris/se4/"]},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Limited","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":1,"data_layers":3,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"measured","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/04/07/swedens-regional-electricity-pricing-draws-big-tech"},{"layer":"Connection friction","method":"proxy","vintage":"2025/26","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2806298-nordic-data-centres-to-support-power-demand-growth"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"modelled","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://statsskuld.se/en/elpris/se4/"}]},"outlook":"Stable","confidence":"High","under_review":false,"thesis":"Southern Sweden (SE4) is the mirror image of the north: a power deficit that imports from Denmark, Germany and Poland at prices two to four times the northern zone, behind a limited north-south trunk grid.","pillars":{"access":55,"availability":52,"cost":72,"momentum":45,"carbon":90},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"Tighter access: a demand region dependent on imports and constrained north-south transfer.","availability":"Lower availability: SE4 runs a deficit and leans on interconnectors when the continent is short.","cost":"Pricier power: SE4 (Malmo) runs 2-4x the SE1 price, though still cheaper than continental peaks.","momentum":"Lower momentum than the north; the hyperscale build sits up north.","carbon":"Clean but slightly less so than the north, given fossil-tinged imports."},"offtake_opportunity_index":73,"demand_hunger":40,"build_feasibility":65,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":41,"bess_arbitrage_pct":62,"solar_capture_pct":97,"wind_capture_pct":100},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["North-south transmission upgrades cut the price gap.","New southern nuclear (planned for the 2030s) adds firm local supply."],"downgrade":["Continental scarcity spikes southern prices.","Transmission delays keep the south import-dependent."]},"risks":["Import dependence and price volatility.","North-south bottleneck."],"peers":{"like":"import-dependent constrained zones","ahead":"continental Europe on carbon","behind":"northern Sweden on cost and availability"},"sources":[{"label":"Sweden zonal prices and north-south deficit (Seoul Economic)","url":"https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/04/07/swedens-regional-electricity-pricing-draws-big-tech"}],"latest_action":{"date":"June 2026","type":"New rating","note":"New rating: Tier 3 Workable assigned (southern zone SE4).","trigger":null},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":66,"carbon_intensity_g":40,"renewable_pct":62,"renewable_generation_share_pct":62,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":97,"fuel_mix":{"nuclear":35,"hydro":25,"wind":25,"solar":5,"gas":3,"biofuel":7},"demand_mw":10000,"capacity_mw":22000,"imports_mw":1500,"exports_mw":300,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":12500,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M1 Broad","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"not_assessed","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"held","method":"measured"},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"assessed"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2027-07-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/sweden-south","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"independently_compiled","label":"Independently compiled","means":"The band is assembled from multiple sourced, dated and applicable published figures. It is not a single benchmark and it is not a tariff reconstruction.","reproducible":"partially"},"component":{"total_lines":3,"reproducible_lines":0,"states":["estimated_allocation"],"all_lines_are_estimated_allocations":true,"independently_reproducible":false,"illustrative":true,"notice":"Illustrative allocation of the compiled midpoint. Component lines are not separately sourced and should not be interpreted as observed tariff charges.","notice_short":"Illustrative allocation — lines not separately sourced","vocabulary_version":"evidence-layers-1.0"},"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}