{"id":"uae","rid":"AE","name":"United Arab Emirates","flag":"🇦🇪","group":"middle_east","type":"market","parent":null,"regions":null,"tier_range":null,"tier":1,"tier_name":"Prime","score":76,"pillar_score":79,"pillar_tier":1,"pillar_tier_name":"Prime","reliability":{"assessed":true,"level":"watch","dock":3,"provisional":false,"confidence":"Med","delivery_transmission":{"level":"none"},"delivery_distribution":{"level":"none","measure":"measured","note":"World-leading delivery reliability in the main load centre: DEWA (Dubai) reported customer minutes lost of 0.82 minutes per year in 2025, a global record, versus roughly 15 minutes at leading EU utilities.","sources":[{"label":"DEWA world-record CML (Arabian Business)","url":"https://www.arabianbusiness.com/business/energy/dewa-sets-world-record-with-0-82-minutes-lowest-annual-power-outage-in-dubai"}]},"forward_capacity":{"level":"watch","measure":"modelled","note":"Firm baseload is strong (Barakah nuclear supplies about 25% of national electricity, roughly 5.6 GW), but extreme-heat cooling demand drives high summer peaks; capacity is expanding to match.","sources":[{"label":"Barakah at ~25% of UAE electricity (World Nuclear Assoc.)","url":"https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-arab-emirates"}]},"read":"Minor flags found","level_means":"reviewed; flags found"},"reliability_dock":3,"regulatory_momentum":null,"scheduled_changes":[{"date":"2026","event":"First 200 MW of the Stargate UAE campus targeted for energization","why":"The initial tranche of the 5 GW Abu Dhabi build; confirms the pace of the Tier 1 momentum.","source":{"label":"OpenAI","url":"https://openai.com/index/introducing-stargate-uae/"}}],"queue":null,"friction":{"level":"Low","wait":"1-3 years","measure":"proxy","has_detail":true},"connection_pathway":null,"service_evidence":{"contractual_service_held":false,"local_capacity_state":"not_assessed","local_capacity_depth":0,"cost_basis":"modelled","territory_count":0},"reliability_metrics":null,"forward_cost":null,"tariff":{"usd_per_kwh":0.08,"native":"about 26 to 32 fils per kWh","basis":"administered, EtihadWE large-load and data-centre incentive rate"},"realized_cost":{"low_usd_per_mwh":50,"mid_usd_per_mwh":65,"high_usd_per_mwh":85,"aggregation":"band","estimate_usd_per_mwh":null,"estimate_kind_note":null,"total_derivation":"compiled_band_allocated_across_categories","total_derivation_note":"The band is the compiled result and the component lines apportion its midpoint, which is why they sum exactly.","tariff_basis":null,"scenarios":null,"confidence":"modelled","public_fragments":2,"contributed_points":0,"basis":"USD per MWh recurring, delivered to the standard 100 MW high-load-factor case, excluding customer-funded connection capital and excluding refundable taxes"},"cost_availability":{"label":"Standardized cost observable","means":"A comparable recurring-cost band can be built from observable, applicable inputs for the standard archetype.","user_action":"Use the band, with its stated confidence and boundary.","class":"standardized_observable","band_published":true},"cost_evidence_state":{"state":"applicable_evidence_incomplete","answerable":"conditionally","label":"Applicable, evidence incomplete","means":"The archetype can buy the service and the band is sound, but some published figures do not yet carry their own source, date, method and confidence.","remedy":"Finish the per-line provenance. No new access or negotiation is required.","also_holds":[],"vocabulary_version":"evidence-state-1.0"},"jurisdiction_evidence":null,"cost_structure":null,"cost_withdrawn":null,"cost_correction":null,"carbon_correction":null,"carbon_official_reference":null,"partial_cost_verified":null,"cost_pillar_calculation":null,"evidence":{"source_reliability":"Moderate","coverage":"Full","coverage_dimensions":3,"last_reviewed":"June 2026","measured_layers":2,"data_layers":4,"layers":[{"layer":"PGIQ Rating opinion","method":"opinion","vintage":"June 2026","freshness":"Current","source_url":"https://powergridiq.com/methodology"},{"layer":"Reliability review","method":"measured","vintage":"2025","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.arabianbusiness.com/business/energy/dewa-sets-world-record-with-0-82-minutes-lowest-annual-power-outage-in-dubai"},{"layer":"Connection friction","method":"proxy","vintage":"2025/26","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/United-Arab-Emirates/electricity_prices/"},{"layer":"Large-user tariff","method":"administered","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://etihadwe.ae/en/About/Pages/Tariff.aspx"},{"layer":"Realized cost","method":"modelled","vintage":"2026","freshness":"Fresh","source_url":"https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/United-Arab-Emirates/electricity_prices/"}]},"outlook":"Positive","confidence":"Med","under_review":true,"thesis":"Among the strongest markets anywhere for a large new load: some of the cheapest power on the board, state-backed fast connection, and a wave of AI investment. The one caveat is carbon. A buyer who weights carbon heavily would rank the UAE lower, because the grid runs on gas.","pillars":{"access":82,"availability":70,"cost":90,"momentum":80,"carbon":42},"pillar_rationale":{"access":"State-backed and fast: national champions (G42, Khazna) and a coordinated build mean connection is quick by global standards.","availability":"Adequate and adding: capacity is expanding fast, and Barakah nuclear (~23% of generation) adds firm, low-carbon baseload.","cost":"Cheap power: among the lowest wholesale costs globally, a major draw for compute.","momentum":"AI-driven momentum: 358 MW operational heading toward ~950 MW by 2028, a ~1.4 GW pipeline including Stargate-class projects.","carbon":"Carbon is moderate (~380 g) thanks to nuclear and solar, but still gas-led; this is the pillar that moves the rating under a carbon lens."},"offtake_opportunity_index":82,"demand_hunger":37,"build_feasibility":85,"supplier_signals":{"bess_arbitrage_usd_mwh":11,"bess_arbitrage_pct":62,"solar_capture_pct":110,"wind_capture_pct":98},"outlook_drivers":{"upgrade":["AI pipeline converts from announced to operational at scale.","Continued nuclear and solar growth keeps lowering grid carbon."],"downgrade":["A carbon-constrained buyer base (EU-tied, hyperscaler RE mandates) reweights away from the region.","Water and cooling constraints in extreme heat."]},"risks":["Carbon profile for RE-mandated tenants.","Concentration in a few state-led developers."],"peers":{"like":"Saudi Arabia (state-backed, cheap, carbon-heavy)","ahead":"ERCOT on carbon-light fundamentals","behind":"Quebec on clean power"},"sources":[{"label":"UAE nuclear share, The National","url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/2025/08/12/uaes-nuclear-contribution-to-electricity-from-zero-to-23/"},{"label":"UAE data-center expansion, DCD","url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-and-g42-expand-data-center-capacity-plans-in-uae-by-200mw/"}],"latest_action":{"date":"Jul 2026","type":"Under review","note":"The Cost pillar (currently 90) is placed under review. The figure reflected the cheap-gas generation cost, not the delivered tariff: EtihadWE's large-load and data-centre incentive rate is about 26 to 32 fils per kWh (roughly $70 to $90 per MWh), which is mid-pack globally, not among the cheapest. Reassessing the Cost score, which may ease; because the Prime rating leans partly on cost, the Tier 1 status is being re-examined.","trigger":"Realized-cost review of the EtihadWE large-load tariff (Jul 2026)"},"grid":{"price_usd_mwh":18,"carbon_intensity_g":400,"renewable_pct":7,"renewable_generation_share_pct":7,"low_carbon_generation_share_pct":27,"fuel_mix":{"gas":71,"nuclear":20,"solar":7,"oil":2},"demand_mw":22000,"capacity_mw":35000,"imports_mw":200,"exports_mw":0,"firm_capacity_mw":null,"firm_capacity_availability":"insufficient_evidence","firm_capacity_basis":null,"est_peak_mw":31240,"firm_headroom_mw":null,"firm_headroom_availability":"dependency_unavailable","peak_stress_pct":null,"peak_stress_availability":"dependency_unavailable","adequacy_required_input":"capacity_mix_mw with a declared basis, or an official dependable or accredited capacity from the operator","price_cycle":"other","price_basis":"not_reviewed","price_absent_reason":null,"price_source":"modelled-baseline","price_as_of":null,"price_vintage":"undated_modelled_baseline","price_is_live":false,"carbon_intensity_unit":"gCO2eq/kWh","carbon_measurement_boundary":"operational_combustion","carbon_calculation_method":"structural_estimate","carbon_emission_factor_source":null,"carbon_basis_withdrawn":true,"carbon_imports_treatment":"not_accounted","carbon_provenance_state":"structural","carbon_decision_eligibility":"insufficient_evidence","carbon_confidence":"low","source":"modelled-baseline"},"evidence_depth":{"use_case":"project_case","use_case_label":"Standardized Project Case","overall":"M1 Broad","overall_permits":"Directional only: supports discovery, comparison and monitoring, not a project decision.","insufficient_evidence":false,"unassessed_required_fields":[],"project_ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"fields":{"cost":"M1 Broad","connection":"M1 Broad","reliability":"M2 Compiled","carbon":"M2 Compiled","regulatory":"not_assessed","local_capacity":"not_assessed"},"by_use_case":{"discovery":{"label":"Discovery and monitoring","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"market_comparison":{"label":"Market comparison","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case":{"label":"Standardized Project Case","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"project_case_carbon":{"label":"Project Case with a carbon requirement","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"M1 Broad","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","carbon"],"insufficient_evidence":false,"why":""},"site_diligence":{"label":"Conditional site diligence","matrix_version":"1.0","tier":"not_assessed","ready":false,"blocking_fields":["cost","connection","reliability","local_capacity"],"insufficient_evidence":true,"why":"not assessed here: local capacity"}},"reliability_layers":{"bulk_historical":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"forward_adequacy":{"state":"held","method":"modelled"},"local_delivery":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"contractual_service":{"state":"unknown","method":null},"designed_site_resilience":{"state":"unknown","method":null}},"definition_version":"carbon_scope@1.0;connection_process@1.0;cost_archetype@1.0;evidence_tiers@1.0;reliability_layers@1.0","scale":"M1 broad / M2 compiled / M3 project-ready / M4 local; cumulative, so each tier includes the ones below it. Assigned per field from held evidence with provenance. Not a rating strength, confidence score or feasibility conclusion."},"next_review":"2026-11-15","report_url":"https://powergridiq.com/rating/uae","as_of":"June 2026","evidence_layers":{"version":"evidence-layers-1.0","band":{"state":"independently_compiled","label":"Independently compiled","means":"The band is assembled from multiple sourced, dated and applicable published figures. It is not a single benchmark and it is not a tariff reconstruction.","reproducible":"partially"},"component":null,"cost_pillar":{"state":"analyst_assessment","label":"Analyst assessment","means":"The score is a judgement recorded with a written cost-specific rationale. It is not calculated from a formula and does not claim to be.","reproducible":false},"layers_are_independent":"Band, component and cost-pillar evidence are separate judgments. A market may have a sound, applicable band and an illustrative component breakdown at the same time. Do not read a component-evidence limitation as a statement about the band."}}