Ireland (Dublin): PGIQ Rating, Tier 5 Largely closed

One market,
four reads

BuildTier 5Siting rating SellGrade COfftake PlanRisingLoad pressure MonitorWeakGrid strength

The same market, four decisions. Open any lens to see this market ranked against the rest.

Time to energize · file to power

~48 mo

File a large load today, powered ~2030. Typical range 41 to 55 months, measured.

Batch application & study 12mo · Connection offer & acceptance 6mo · Agreement & works 12mo · Construction & energization 18mo

End-to-end wait for a large new load, from a complete application being accepted to full firm energization of the nominated MW. Earlier milestones (initial, phased, temporary or conditional energization) are reported separately. A typical case, not a firm quote. · Source: EirGrid ECP process · Compare markets →

The same market, read four ways

BuildSellPlanMonitor

Ireland (Dublin) is a limited market to sell power into

Grade C (Limited)

Offtake score 10/100

Demand 60, build feasibility 4, combined into the score. For a seller: where buyers already pay, how tight supply is, and how feasible new build is here.

Price to beat

A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $150/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer works against that level.

Queue depth (generation and storage)

About 5 GW in the interconnection queue (the line to connect to the grid), typical wait 48 months.

For new supply

New grid-connected supply faces the same congestion; the near-term route is on-site or stored generation that lets a load self-supply, the condition under which Dublin connections reopened.

Regulatory momentum

Adverse, improving. The Dublin data-centre connection moratorium was lifted in December 2025, but only for projects that self-generate or store their full demand; grid-only connection stays effectively closed in the east.

Beyond the grid

Community and resource pressure underlies the grid limit: data centres' large and rising share of national electricity has made them a sustained political flashpoint, which is the backdrop to the connection restrictions.

Scheduled to change

2026: EirGrid assesses conditional self-supply connections under the new Large Energy Users policy (CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry).

See it on the Offtake Grade →

Ireland (Dublin): effectively full at system level, rising demand pressure

Effectively full 0/100

System-level room, not local capacity

Local capacity at the point of connectionOperator publishes it27 distribution planning zones, plus a published transmission constrained-area overview for data centres · ESB Networks (distribution) and EirGrid (transmission)

Every data-centre connection application receives a locational assessment against 27 distribution planning zones, so whether a site sits in a constrained area is a determinable question rather than an open one. EirGrid published a data-centre constrained-area overview in May 2026, with fuller heat maps expected alongside the 2027 Ten Year Transmission Forecast Statement. Dublin remains the constrained core: data centres account for roughly half of regional demand. The December 2025 Large Energy Users policy replaced the blanket Dublin moratorium with this locational test.

How to check for your site: Identify the distribution planning zone for the candidate site and read the constrained-area overview before applying. Do NOT use ESB Networks' network capacity heatmap as load evidence: it sits in the renewable connection pathway and reports capacity for generation.

Source: Get connected, ESB Networks. An operator publishing capacity is not the same as us having checked your bus.

Two reads for a grid planner: how much room the system as a whole looks to have (Effectively full), and how hard demand is already pushing (Rising). The first is a market-level estimate from connection ease, forward adequacy and reliability margin. It is not local deliverability. Local capacity for this market IS addressed below, from an operator publication. Confirm local capacity with the utility before relying on it.

Generation and storage queue

5 GW requested; about 3.5 GW likely to reach operation after historical withdrawal. The gap is speculative pipeline. This counts generation and storage seeking to connect, not load.

Demand growth

Moderate load growth in our read, the pull on your system.

Future firm supply

Future firm supply: tight for a large new load.

Load Pipeline Reality → Where demand is hungry → Connection friction →

Grid Risk Annex BETA

Weak

Deep conditions or guarantees needed · grid strength 33/100

A cited, dated grid-risk read on Ireland (Dublin) for a capital provider, the banks and private-credit lenders, infrastructure funds and insurers holding or underwriting a power or data-centre exposure here. Drop it into a credit memo and watch each factor over the life of the exposure.

Read it against your asset. For a load asset (Buy), weight connection access and energization timing. For a generation or offtake asset (Sell), weight offtake demand, curtailment (when a plant is told to stop feeding the grid) and cost realisation. For a grid or transmission asset (Move), weight load-pipeline reality and buildout risk.

Rating and track record

PGIQ Tier 5 Largely closed, outlook Positive, High confidence. Scored on a public, dated, falsifiable record you can cite in a credit memo.

Delivery reliability

Reliability flags found in the bulk and local outage record we reviewed.

Future firm supply

Future firm supply: tight.

Cost certainty

Recurring cost about $150/MWh (band $130 to $180) for the standard 100 MW case, basis modelled. Excludes connection capital.

Regulatory / stroke-of-pen

Execution risk

5 GW in the generation and storage queue, about 30% historically withdrawn, the risk the project or load actually energizes on time.

Ongoing monitor

Track this market's rating actions and the Global Power Index as a covenant-style monitor over the life of the exposure.

Monitoring plan

Covenant-style triggers to watch over the life of the exposure: a change in the PGIQ rating or outlook; a dated regulatory move (stroke-of-pen risk); a capacity-auction or cost-band shift; a forward firm-supply adequacy warning; and a rise in queue drop-out or connection friction. Track them on this market page and the Global Power Index, or as Analyst Desk alerts.

Sources: Ireland ends moratorium, Energy Connects · Data centres 22% of demand, CSO · DCD

This is a directional grid-risk screen, not a credit rating, and not investment, engineering or procurement advice.

The formatted, cited Grid Risk Annex export is an Analyst Desk feature.See the Grid Exposure Monitor →

Regulatory momentum

The regulatory and permitting environment is increasingly the binding variable for a new large load.

Adverse↑ improving

Why: The Dublin data-centre connection moratorium was lifted in December 2025, but only for projects that self-generate or store their full demand; grid-only connection stays effectively closed in the east.

What would change the read: EirGrid confirming that conditional connections genuinely reopen grid access for large loads, not just self-supply.

For new supply: New grid-connected supply faces the same congestion; the near-term route is on-site or stored generation that lets a load self-supply, the condition under which Dublin connections reopened.

Beyond the grid: Community and resource pressure underlies the grid limit: data centres' large and rising share of national electricity has made them a sustained political flashpoint, which is the backdrop to the connection restrictions. DCD

The five pillars behind the tier

The pillar signature: Access, Availability, Cost, Momentum, Carbon, taller is stronger. The same shape repeats across every market so peers compare at a glance.

Access30%22

Hard access gate: a 2021-2025 freeze on new Dublin data-center grid connections was lifted in late 2025 only for projects that self-generate or store their full demand. Grid-only connection stays effectively closed in the east.

Availability25%38

Tight availability: a small, constrained system with data centers already ~22% of national demand.

Cost25%39

Expensive power.

Momentum15%55

Historically high momentum (a FLAP-D hub), now gated.

Carbon5%54

Moderate carbon (~340 g), gas-led.

Default weights, which lean toward cost and access rather than carbon: Access 30 · Availability 25 · Cost 25 · Momentum 15 · Carbon 5. Momentum reflects the data-center build already underway, not just stated intentions.

Reliability overlay

Reliability adjustment: the five-pillar score of 37 is reduced to 32, a deduction of 5 points, reflecting the delivery-reliability and firm-supply risks flagged below. Reliability is reported as five separate layers, never as one combined label, because they answer different questions and a strong answer on one does not cover a gap in another: what has actually failed on the bulk system, what a forward assessment expects of firm supply, how the local network performs, what your contract actually promises, and what your site is designed to ride through. Any one of them can cap the tier.

Historical bulk-system performance: No reliability flags found

Historical utility-territory delivery performance: No reliability flags found

Forward resource adequacy (assessed): Tight

Tight adequacy: EirGrid warns of possible Amber system alerts at low-wind, low-import evening peaks, and the system leans on temporary emergency generation plus protocols under which large users (mostly data centres) cut demand by up to 75% in an emergency. Data-center demand is the core driver, which is why grid-only connection around Dublin is gated.

What this means: A large new load should expect genuine exposure to forced power cuts (curtailment), price spikes, and delays in getting connected, and should design in backup power or firm supply contracts.

event-based · EirGrid winter adequacy outlook

Contractual service terms: interruptible expected

The system leans on protocols under which large users, mostly data centres, cut demand by up to 75% in an emergency. A large new load here should expect an interruptibility obligation as a condition of service rather than as an option.

What the service contract promises, as distinct from how the system has performed · EirGrid winter adequacy outlook

Designed site resilience: not applicable at market level

Utility feeds, UPS, storage, on-site generation, islanding, black start and the residual energy you still expect to lose are properties of a specific site design, not of a market. This layer only exists once there is a site, and we never assert it for you.

Confidence: High. Each input is labelled as measured, modelled, or drawn from a specific event, and is framed as a risk to a prospective large new load, not as a verdict on any utility or grid operator. Forward adequacy is an assessment of what is expected, not a measurement of what has happened; it is a forecast and is labelled as one.

Supply relief outlook

Will the power crunch ease before your load energizes? This nets the demand racing for capacity against the new supply likely to arrive and the old supply leaving. A cross-side read, using the same data a seller sees the other way.

Balanced

Demand pressure

Moderate load growth competing for the same capacity.

New supply in motion

About 3.5 GW of the generation and storage queue is likely to reach operation after historical withdrawal.

Can new supply arrive

New grid-connected supply faces the same congestion; the near-term route is on-site or stored generation that lets a load self-supply, the condition under which Dublin connections reopened.

Future firm supply

Future firm supply: tight.

What this means: Supply and demand look broadly balanced; the outcome hinges on the drivers below.

Interconnection queue

This is a generation and storage interconnection queue. It shows how congested the interconnection system is for new supply. It does not measure how long a new large load waits, and its withdrawal rate is not a load withdrawal rate. The figures below are this market's own, published by its system operator; they are not part of, and not comparable with, the United States queue totals.

Active queue depth

5 GW

Typical wait

48 months

What builds the 48-month wait

Batch application & study12 mo

Connection offer & acceptance6 mo

Agreement & works12 mo

Construction & energization18 mo

Typical time to energization48 months

How the typical connection wait breaks down by stage. Stages overlap in practice and vary by project; the split is our estimate anchored to the operator process, and the total is the representative time to energization. Anchored to the operator process (EirGrid ECP process).

The full queue analysis for this market, which covers the share of projects that give up and leave the queue (the withdrawal rate), how much of the queue is data centers, and the sources, is available through /api/v1/queue/ireland with a paid key. These are generation and storage queue figures: they show interconnection-system congestion, not a typical large-load connection wait.

Realized cost band

What a large electricity user pays for power here on one declared case, 100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service, per megawatt-hour. Not the wholesale price and not the sticker tariff: energy plus the grid, delivery and other charges that land on the bill. It is a range, because real contracts vary, and it is labelled by how it was built.

Recurring cost, delivered

$130 to $180 per MWh

Midpoint about $150 per MWh

How this band was built

modelled

From 2 public fragments

What builds the $150 midpoint

$88

$45

Wholesale energy$88

Network & constraint charges$45

Taxes & levies$17

All-in delivered$150 /MWh

How the $150/MWh figure is built up, component by component, for 100 MW contracted demand, 95% load factor, HV service. The split is our estimate; the total is the midpoint of the compiled band (modelled). Recurring cost only: customer-funded connection capital is a separate one-off and is not included. Ireland has the most expensive large-load band in the coverage: the highest non-household energy prices in the EU, plus heavy network and constraint costs on a small, tight system. Anchored to published figures (EU electricity price components (Eurostat)).

Where the cost lands

$150

Low $130Midpoint $150High $180

A band, not a single price: the cheaper end is a well-structured contract on favourable terms, the higher end a less optimised one. The midpoint is our best central read.

What is in the number: Among the highest non-household energy prices in the European Union, plus heavy network and constraint costs on a small, tight system.

Ireland has the most expensive large-load band in the coverage. Non-household prices are the highest in the European Union, the system is small and constrained, and data centers already draw about a fifth of national demand, so a new large load pays a steep, constraint-driven premium.

This market's band is free here; the ranked cross-market table with every market's precise midpoint is the Analyst Desk. See the ranked view.

Basis: triangulated from public sources, in US dollars per MWh delivered to a large high-load-factor load, excluding refundable taxes. Sources: Non-household electricity prices, Ireland highest (Eurostat) · Data centres 22% of demand (CSO Ireland).

Data provenance and freshness

What we hold for this market, field by field. Each tier below is assigned from the evidence actually held for that field, with provenance. A low tier means we looked and it is thin; it is not a verdict on the market.

cost: M1connection: M3reliability: M2carbon: M2regulatory: M2local capacity: M4

Against a Standardized Project Case, the binding field is cost, reliability. That is what a standardized case would turn on here; a readiness result for your own project depends on your own requirements, siting and utility, which this market-level read does not know.

Read against other uses: Discovery and monitoring: M1 · Market comparison: M1 · Project Case with a carbon requirement: M1 · Conditional site diligence: M1.

Depth is not a rating strength, a confidence score or a feasibility conclusion. An aggregate is only ever shown for a named use case, and equals the lowest tier across that use case's required fields. Definitions v1.0. See the full coverage matrix.

How solid the data behind this rating is, on two separate axes plus recency. Source reliability is how measured the numbers are, as opposed to triangulated or modelled. Coverage is how many of the decision-relevant data dimensions (reliability, connection, and cost) are compiled for this market. The two are kept apart because they answer different questions: a market can have strong sources on the little that is covered, or broad coverage that still leans on models. Neither grades the rating itself. The rating is a cited opinion, graded separately and falsifiably by the public track record and baseline measurement plan.

Source reliability

Moderate

1 of 3 data layers measured

Coverage

Full

3 of 3 dimensions: reliability, connection, cost

Last reviewed

June 2026

per-layer vintages below

Layer	Method	Vintage	Freshness	Source
PGIQ Rating opinion	opinion	June 2026	Current	PGIQ methodology
Reliability review	assessed	2025	Fresh	EirGrid winter adequacy outlook
Interconnection queue	measured	end-2025 (LBNL 2026)	Fresh	EirGrid ECP-2.5 assumptions
Realized cost	modelled	2026	Fresh	Non-household electricity prices, Ireland highest (Eurostat)

Freshness reflects each layer's refresh cadence: reliability annual to three-yearly, capacity-auction and queue yearly, tariffs every year or two. The full cross-market freshness dashboard is at /data-quality.

What this market can and cannot answer yet

No market-level read closes a project case on its own, and saying only that would waste the evidence we do hold. Below is what is established, what is open, and what to do next.

What is established

Recurring cost band $130 to $180 per MWh, midpoint $150, basis modelled, against the 100 MW archetype
Forward resource adequacy (assessed)
Contractual service terms (reported)
Typical interconnection wait about 48 months (generation and storage queue, not a load wait)

What is open

Historical bulk-system performance
Historical utility-territory delivery performance (would change the answer)
Designed site resilience

Who would actually serve you

Not compiled for this market. Identify the serving operator before relying on any figure here, because a market-level read is an average over territories.
Who runs the connection process: EirGrid and ESB Networks (system operator and distribution operator), via Large Energy User connection assessment. Dublin-area constraints are explicit policy, not queue congestion. Where the process starts.

Credible ranges today

Cost $130 to $180 per MWh, midpoint $150 (modelled)
Schedule: interconnection queues here run about 48 months for generation and storage; a large load follows a different process and we do not hold its measured distribution

What could disqualify this market

Policy gate and self-supply requirement.
System tightness with data centers at ~22% of demand.

Five questions for the utility or system operator

What is the all-in delivered rate for 100 MW at a 95% load factor, including demand, network and rider charges, under the tariff that would actually apply?
What is your own territory's SAIDI and SAIFI for the industrial class, on which major-event standard, and what redundancy serves the candidate substation?
What is the available capacity at the bulk supply point and substation that would serve this site, and what would a 100 MW request do to it?
Is firm service available at 100 MW, and what curtailment rights would you retain over us once we are energised?
What are the milestone dates from a complete application to full firm energisation, and which network upgrades would a 100 MW load trigger?

Documents that would advance the case

The current tariff sheet with all riders, and any large-load contract terms.
The utility's own reliability filing and the substation single-line diagram.
The area or substation capacity study, and the current queue position list.
The applicable large-load tariff or the draft electric service agreement.
The interconnection or system impact study, and a specimen connection offer.

Outlook drivers

↑ Upgrade triggers

The self-supply pathway and green energy parks unlock new regional capacity.
Offshore wind and grid build relieve the eastern constraint.

↓ Downgrade triggers

The gate tightens or self-supply economics fail to pencil.
Continued moratorium pressure.

Scheduled to change

Dated, already-announced events that will affect a large load sited here, in date order. These are published facts with sources, not our forecasts, and they matter most when your energization date is years out.

2026

EirGrid assesses conditional self-supply connections under the new Large Energy Users policy

Determines whether grid access genuinely reopens in the constrained east, or stays effectively closed.

CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry

Key risks

Policy gate and self-supply requirement.
System tightness with data centers at ~22% of demand.

Peer comparison

Trades like

Singapore (major hub, near-closed)

Ahead of

few

Behind

most open markets

Evidence behind this rating

The real-world events that test our Tier 5 call for Ireland (Dublin): 1 supports it. Each is dated and cited, so you can check the rating against what is actually happening on the ground.

Ireland lifts the Dublin data-centre connection moratorium, with conditions ✓ Supports the rating

Dec 2025AccessMateriality: high

New grid links are allowed only for projects that can self-generate or store their full demand; grid-only connection stays effectively closed in the east.

Source: Energy Connects ↗

Cited, dated developments tagged to the pillar they bear on, and whether they support or challenge the current tier. A material item flags the market for analyst review and may drive a rating action.

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Rating history

Jun 2026

Under reviewThe connection-moratorium lift is placed under review. Whether conditional, self-supply connections materially reopen access is being assessed; direction uncertain, with an upgrade path if access genuinely improves.

Trigger: Ireland lifts the Dublin moratorium with conditions (Dec 2025)

June 2026

New ratingNew rating: Tier 5 Largely closed assigned.

🔒 The full time series behind Ireland (Dublin), how its score, recurring cost, and interconnection queue have moved month by month, is part of the Analyst Desk. The rating actions above are always free.

Every rating action is dated and explained, and the log is only ever added to, never edited. Reviews happen on a regular schedule and whenever a significant event occurs. "Affirmed" means we reviewed a development and the tier held; "Under review" means a significant item is being assessed and the rating could change.

Score history

How Ireland (Dublin)'s reliability-adjusted score and tier have moved, month by month. Part of your Analyst Desk.

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How does Ireland (Dublin) compare to the other 78 markets?

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With your Analyst Desk, compare Ireland (Dublin) against every market side by side, ranked on recurring cost and time-to-connect, with the full history and shortlist alerts.

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