PGIQ Rating ยท track record ยท as of June 2026

Our calls, dated and in the open

A rating is only worth what its record shows. Every material change to a PGIQ Rating is logged here, with the date, the development that triggered it, and where the rating stands now. Calls that are still open are marked Pending, so you can hold us to them. If you disagree with one, every market page has a "Dispute this rating" link.

58 days on the record, since 1 June 2026. Snapshots are captured daily and can never be back-filled, so the series only compounds forward.

How to read this

Holding The call stands; no event since has changed it.Validated A later event confirmed the call.Reversed A later event moved the rating the other way; logged in full.Pending An open call awaiting a decision or event that will resolve it.
This is the curated landmark set. The full dated action log, per market, is at /api/v1/actions and on each market page. Calls are framed as risk to a prospective large load, never as a verdict on any utility or operator.

The record

Downgrade: ERCOT loses Prime, moved to Tier 2

Fundamentals stay strong (78) and connect-and-manage is still the fastest US energization, but a NERC elevated-risk forward outlook plus the Winter Storm Uri record cap it below Prime.

Trigger: Methodology v2 reliability overlay; NERC 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment elevated-risk finding.Status: Held since publication. Watching summer 2026 peak performance and any new large-load connection rules.
Split call: Sweden's north rated Prime, its south a tier lower

A single national number hid a two-tier gap. The cheap, stable northern zones (SE1/SE2, where Meta built) clear Prime; the import-dependent south (SE4) does not.

Trigger: Persistent SE1-SE4 price divergence; Nord Pool zonal prices.Status: Northern zones remain the cheapest power in Europe; the split holds.
Split call: Germany's industrial south rated a tier below the north

The wind-surplus north is favorable; the south depends on northern power over a bottlenecked grid until SuedLink completes, so its access is materially tighter.

Trigger: North-south transmission bottleneck; SuedLink in-service ~2028.Status: Open until SuedLink materially relieves the constraint; revisit on commissioning.
Elevated delivery flag on Spain and Portugal

A roughly ten-hour peninsula-wide collapse is a real delivery-reliability signal for a prospective large load, framed as risk, not a verdict on any operator.

Trigger: April 2025 Iberian blackout.Status: Flag stands pending the final system operator and regulator post-mortem; will re-rate on findings.
Tier 1 status under review as the true UAE tariff comes into focus

The Cost pillar rested on the cheap-gas generation cost, but a data center pays EtihadWE's large-load rate of about 26 to 32 fils per kWh (~$70 to $90 per MWh), which is mid-pack globally. With the Prime rating leaning partly on cost, Tier 1 is being re-examined.

Trigger: Realized-cost review of the EtihadWE large-load tariff (Jul 2026).Status: Open. Cost pillar likely eases; Tier 1 status depends on whether the other pillars hold it.
California cost pillar placed under review; wholesale understates the all-in

The $42 wholesale price omits California's heavy non-bypassable charges, the PCIA, delivery, and Rule 30 upfront transmission. A large load's all-in runs nearer $95 to $155 per MWh, an expensive market, not a moderate one.

Trigger: Realized-cost review of California non-bypassable and delivery charges (Jul 2026).Status: Open. Cost score likely weakens; tier could move down.
Cost pillar placed under review as Quebec's data-centre rate advances

A closer look at the proposed ~13 cents/kWh data-centre rate (about $95 US per MWh) puts Quebec mid-pack for a new data center, not lowest in the set; the cheap Rate L applies to general industry, not the load we rate. Reassessing whether the Cost score of 100 overstates the advantage.

Trigger: Realized-cost review of the Hydro-Quebec data-centre tariff (Jul 2026).Status: Open. Tier likely holds; the Cost pillar may ease pending the Regie decision.
Affirmed: Quebec held at Tier 2 despite the new data-centre tariff

A proposed ~13 cents/kWh rate is managed pricing inside an open, low-cost, low-carbon system, not a closure. Price stays the lowest in the set.

Trigger: Hydro-Quebec ~13 cents/kWh tariff proposal (Jun 2026).Status: Affirmed; outlook unchanged. Watching the Regie decision.
Affirmed with an upgrade trigger set for South Africa

A full year without load-shedding meets the reliability-recovery trigger set the prior cycle; the availability read improves but a formal upgrade waits for the recovery to hold through winter.

Trigger: One year with zero load-shedding (16 May 2026).Status: Upgrade review scheduled next cycle if reliability holds. A live, falsifiable call.
Under review: New York flagged for a possible access downgrade

A statewide 20 MW+ moratorium is one signature from law and would tighten access materially on top of the FERC order.

Trigger: NY Legislature data-centre moratorium passed (4 Jun 2026).Status: Tier held pending the Governor's decision; downgrade path if signed.
Under review: Ireland's Dublin moratorium lift

Whether the conditional, self-supply reopening materially restores access for a large load is the open question; upgrade path if access genuinely improves.

Trigger: Ireland lifts the Dublin moratorium with conditions (Dec 2025).Status: Assessing whether conditional access is real. Direction uncertain.
Under review: PJM flagged on the FERC large-load finding

FERC's preliminary finding that PJM's tariff is unjust for large loads puts co-location and cost-allocation economics directly in play.

Trigger: FERC Section 206 show-cause order (18 Jun 2026).Status: Tier held for now, flagged; awaiting the 60-day response and any rulemaking.

Every logged action

The complete affirm, review, outlook, upgrade and downgrade log across all rated markets, newest first. Affirmations are included: when a material development is reviewed and the tier holds, we log that too, so the record is not just the changes we are proud of.
Jul 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช GermanyNational score moves 57 to 53 as the overview now carries the average of its regions' reliability adjustments (North 0, South 7) instead of an unapplied national dock. Tier 3 affirmed; the region ratings are unchanged and remain the actionable ones.
Jul 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช SwedenNational score moves 78 to 76 as the overview now carries the average of its regions' reliability adjustments (North 0, South 4) instead of an unapplied national dock. Tier 1 affirmed; the region ratings are unchanged.
Jul 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต JapanNational score moves 51 to 47 as the overview now carries the average of its regions' reliability adjustments (East 7, West 0) instead of an unapplied national dock. Tier 3 affirmed; the region ratings are unchanged.
Jul 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Northern Virginia (PJM)A second consecutive capacity auction at the price cap confirms the structural cost pressure already reflected in the tier. Tier holds.
Jul 2026Under review๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Northern Virginia (PJM)A statewide $0.011/kWh consumption tax stacks on capacity prices at the cap and DOE-ordered curtailment exposure; direction of the Cost pillar is clearly negative, tier impact under assessment.
Jul 2026Under review๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Northern Virginia (PJM)Two high-materiality negatives in one cycle: capacity cleared at the cap with a first-ever RTO-wide 6.6 GW reliability shortfall (Cost, Availability), and emergency authority to curtail data centers as a class (Availability, with Access read-through). Review continues; direction uncertain until the 2028/29 auction clears, tier could hold or move down one notch.
Jul 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ MISO (Midwest)Emergency procedures managed the heat dome without reported firm load shed. Consistent with the thin-margin availability profile already in the rating. Tier holds.
Jul 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ MISO (Midwest)Tier holds. The 35% load-growth forecast confirms demand momentum without changing near-term access or availability.
Jul 2026Under review๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ CAISO (California)The Cost pillar (currently 68) is placed under review. California's wholesale price badly understates the delivered cost once non-bypassable charges, the Power Charge Indifference Adjustment, delivery, and Rule 30 upfront transmission are counted; a large load's all-in runs closer to $95 to $155 per MWh, an expensive market, not a moderate one. Reassessing the Cost score; tier could move down as the cost read weakens.
Jul 2026Under review๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช United Arab EmiratesThe Cost pillar (currently 90) is placed under review. The figure reflected the cheap-gas generation cost, not the delivered tariff: EtihadWE's large-load and data-centre incentive rate is about 26 to 32 fils per kWh (roughly $70 to $90 per MWh), which is mid-pack globally, not among the cheapest. Reassessing the Cost score, which may ease; because the Prime rating leans partly on cost, the Tier 1 status is being re-examined.
Jul 2026Under review๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ NYISO (New York)A statewide permit pause at 50 MW+ is a direct hit to Access in force today. Duration and the shape of the successor framework are unclear; tier direction uncertain pending the state's rules.
Jul 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ERCOT (Texas)Tier holds. Formal PUCT approval of Batch Zero adds regulatory certainty to large-load access; queue discipline supports, not weakens, the rating.
Jul 2026Downgrade๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ERCOT (Texas)Under the v2 reliability overlay, ERCOT is held at Tier 2. Fundamentals remain strong (78) and connect-and-manage energization is still the fastest large-load path in the US, but a NERC elevated-risk forward outlook plus the Winter Storm Uri record cap it below Prime.
Jul 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ QuebecTier holds. The tariff is still a proposal and its in-force date has slipped; no change until the Regie rules.
Jul 2026Under review๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ QuebecThe Cost pillar (currently 100) is placed under review. On closer analysis, the proposed dedicated data-centre rate of about 13 cents CAD per kWh (roughly $95 US per MWh) puts Quebec mid-pack for a new data center rather than lowest in the set; the cheap Rate L (about 3.8 cents) applies to general industry, not to the load we rate. Reassessing whether the Cost score overstates the advantage for a new data center. Tier likely holds; the Cost pillar may ease.
Jul 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ AlbertaBYOG gives large loads a defined, if conditional, connection path after the interim tranche filled. Constructive for Access but untested until the first intake. Tier holds.
Jul 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ NetherlandsCourt ruling hardens the connection constraint the tier already prices in; tier holds.
Jun 2026Under review๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Northern Virginia (PJM)FERC's preliminary finding that PJM's tariff is unjust for large loads puts co-location and cost-allocation economics directly in play; direction uncertain pending the 60-day response and any rulemaking. Tier held for now, flagged for review.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ MISO (Midwest)Named in the FERC show-cause suite; reform process is preliminary and procedural. Tier holds, monitoring the 17 Aug response.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ SPP (Southwest Power Pool)Named in the FERC show-cause suite; preliminary stage, tier holds, monitoring.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ CAISO (California)Named in the FERC show-cause suite; preliminary stage, tier holds, monitoring.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช United Arab EmiratesTier 1 Prime affirmed on abundant firm gas capacity, an open pro-build stance, and a strong national AI-power agenda.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ISO New EnglandNamed in the FERC show-cause suite; preliminary stage, tier holds, monitoring.
Jun 2026Under review๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ NYISO (New York)A statewide 20 MW+ moratorium is one signature from law and would tighten access materially on top of the FERC order. Tier held pending the Governor's decision; downgrade path if signed.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ERCOT (Texas)Large-load demand surge reviewed; fast connect-and-manage energization and cheap self-supply gas keep the fundamentals strong.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ QuebecProposed data-centre tariff reviewed; this is managed pricing inside an open, low-cost system, not a closure. Price remains the lowest in the set; Tier 2 affirmed, outlook unchanged.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ AlbertaInterim tranche fully subscribed with no durable Phase 2 framework yet is a near-term access constraint, but gas-rich, pro-build fundamentals hold the tier. Affirmed; outlook watch if Phase 2 slips.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great BritainConnection reform is delivering on schedule (Gate 2 offers issuing), supporting the positive outlook, but firm pre-2030 capacity stays scarce. Tier affirmed, outlook unchanged.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia (NEM)Queue disclosure and a maturing AEMC connection standard improve transparency and revealed build. Tier affirmed, positive outlook supported.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Pacific NorthwestSeattle's siting moratorium is consistent with the existing negative outlook; localised, not system-wide. Tier affirmed.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South AfricaThe availability-recovery upgrade trigger set previously is now met: a full year without load-shedding. Tier affirmed; recommend a formal upgrade review next cycle if reliability holds through winter.
Jun 2026Affirmed๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South AfricaReliability recovery reviewed; a sustained run without load-shedding supports the availability read. Tier affirmed, with an upgrade trigger if the recovery holds.
Jun 2026Under review๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland (Dublin)The connection-moratorium lift is placed under review. Whether conditional, self-supply connections materially reopen access is being assessed; direction uncertain, with an upgrade path if access genuinely improves.

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