Markets · Sell power lens · as of June 2026

Where to sell new power: 79 markets, ranked

Use this page to shortlist where a new generation project or offtake offer is most likely to land. Every rated market is scored on how much it needs new supply and on whether new supply can realistically be built and sold there; a market that needs power but cannot take new build scores low. Each entry shows the delivered price a competitive offer must beat, the typical connection wait, and the regulatory direction. This points you where to look next, not what you will earn. Each market's own read is free; the full ranking and its history are the Analyst Desk.

Top of the ranking this month: 🇺🇸 ERCOT Central (Houston & DFW), where demand for new power is strongest against what the market can build.
The same market, read four ways: build, sell, plan, monitor
BuildSellPlan
Monitor →
The offtake plane: demand hunger vs build feasibility
Every market plotted on how hungry it is for power (right) against how feasible new supply is (up). Top-right is the sweet spot; colour is the Offtake Grade.
00252550507575100100Demand hunger →Build feasibility →Netherlands: demand 62, build 1, grade 0Ireland (Dublin): demand 60, build 4, grade 10Germany South (Frankfurt/Munich): demand 65, build 4, grade 11Quebec: demand 27, build 16, grade 19NYISO (New York): demand 49, build 12, grade 25Alberta: demand 44, build 22, grade 38Ontario: demand 38, build 30, grade 42Taiwan: demand 55, build 22, grade 44Spain: demand 45, build 30, grade 48Newfoundland & Labrador: demand 27, build 52, grade 49Kuwait: demand 24, build 60, grade 50Iraq: demand 32, build 45, grade 50Japan East (Tokyo, 50Hz): demand 66, build 22, grade 50Manitoba: demand 24, build 68, grade 54South Africa: demand 41, build 42, grade 56Northern Virginia (PJM): demand 61, build 30, grade 59Switzerland: demand 37, build 50, grade 59British Columbia: demand 28, build 68, grade 60Austria: demand 33, build 58, grade 60Latvia: demand 37, build 52, grade 60Qatar: demand 28, build 68, grade 60Germany North (Hamburg): demand 41, build 48, grade 61Denmark: demand 36, build 55, grade 62Bulgaria: demand 37, build 55, grade 63Slovenia: demand 39, build 52, grade 63Uruguay: demand 33, build 62, grade 63Japan West (Osaka, 60Hz): demand 49, build 42, grade 63Lithuania: demand 38, build 55, grade 64Croatia: demand 40, build 52, grade 64Egypt: demand 32, build 65, grade 64Singapore: demand 60, build 35, grade 64New Brunswick: demand 35, build 62, grade 65Belgium: demand 39, build 55, grade 65Slovakia: demand 37, build 58, grade 65Hungary: demand 39, build 55, grade 65Costa Rica: demand 37, build 58, grade 65New Zealand: demand 36, build 60, grade 65Romania: demand 40, build 55, grade 66Estonia: demand 40, build 55, grade 66Pacific Northwest: demand 41, build 55, grade 67Czech Republic: demand 39, build 58, grade 67Israel: demand 41, build 55, grade 67Colombia: demand 39, build 58, grade 67Argentina: demand 39, build 58, grade 67Saskatchewan: demand 37, build 62, grade 68Greece: demand 42, build 55, grade 68Turkey: demand 37, build 62, grade 68Brazil (Sao Paulo): demand 41, build 58, grade 69ISO New England: demand 45, build 52, grade 69CAISO (California): demand 54, build 45, grade 70Chile: demand 40, build 60, grade 70Norway: demand 31, build 79, grade 71SPP (Southwest Power Pool): demand 35, build 71, grade 71Finland: demand 34, build 73, grade 71Sweden North (Lulea, SE1/SE2): demand 28, build 91, grade 72Italy (Milan, North): demand 49, build 52, grade 72Great Britain: demand 67, build 38, grade 72South Korea: demand 60, build 42, grade 72Nova Scotia: demand 45, build 58, grade 73Sweden South (Malmo, SE4): demand 40, build 65, grade 73Poland: demand 45, build 58, grade 73MISO (Midwest): demand 47, build 56, grade 74Saudi Arabia: demand 32, build 85, grade 75Australia Queensland (Brisbane): demand 46, build 60, grade 76Australia Victoria (Melbourne): demand 49, build 58, grade 77Portugal: demand 42, build 68, grade 78Desert Southwest (Phoenix): demand 45, build 68, grade 81United Arab Emirates: demand 37, build 85, grade 82France: demand 45, build 71, grade 83Indonesia: demand 54, build 59, grade 83India: demand 50, build 65, grade 84Australia NSW (Sydney): demand 56, build 58, grade 84Hong Kong: demand 53, build 65, grade 87US Southeast (Atlanta): demand 50, build 71, grade 89ERCOT West (West Texas & Panhandle): demand 46, build 91, grade 98Thailand: demand 55, build 77, grade 98Philippines: demand 66, build 65, grade 99Malaysia: demand 56, build 77, grade 99ERCOT Central (Houston & DFW): demand 48, build 91, grade 100🇺🇸 ERCOT Central🇵🇭 Philippines🇲🇾 Malaysia🇺🇸 ERCOT West🇹🇭 Thailand🇺🇸 US Southeast
● Grade A   ● Grade B   ● Grade C
Demand hunger for new power Build feasibility of building and selling Net = Demand × Build, the capturable opportunity Offtake Grade A strong · B moderate · C limited
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Reading through a lens: pick who you are and the score reweights toward the factors that segment cares about. The build-feasibility gate always applies.
1🇺🇸 ERCOT Central (Houston & DFW)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade ADemand 48Build 91100
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $72/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Connection
Connection difficulty Low, typical wait 1-2 years.
For new supply
The same fast energy-only build path, applied where transmission is robust and the load pockets are well served.
Regulatory momentum
Favourable, stable. The same open, energy-only connect-and-manage framework as ERCOT statewide, applied where the transmission is robust and the load pockets are well served.
Beyond the grid
Water and community consent bind in Central Texas: the San Antonio to Austin corridor quadrupled data-centre development from 2023 to 2025 as Edwards Aquifer levels hit historic lows, Hays County advocates are protesting five proposed sites, and San Marcos City Council voted a data centre down outright.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
2🇵🇭 Philippines
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade ADemand 66Build 6599
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $170/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Connection
Connection difficulty Moderate, typical wait 2-4 years.
Scheduled to change
By 2027: 1.5 GW of data-center capacity targeted (DICT) (Philippines data-center push faces power reality check (Philstar)).
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
3🇲🇾 Malaysia
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade ADemand 56Build 7799
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $100/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Connection
Connection difficulty Moderate, typical wait 1-3 years (Green Lane).
For new supply
About RM43 billion of TNB grid investment supports new supply, though Johor's water limits now gate the largest builds.
Regulatory momentum
Favourable, improving. TNB's Green Lane pathway cuts data-centre connection times toward 12 months from 36 to 48, backed by about RM43 billion of grid investment.
Beyond the grid
Water is now the gating non-grid constraint: in late 2025 Johor stopped approving the largest water-cooled (Tier 1 and Tier 2) data centres, which can use up to 50 million litres a day, and asked investors to postpone water-cooled expansion until about mid-2027 after residential supply disruptions.
Scheduled to change
2025 to 2027: TNB delivers about RM43 billion of grid upgrades (TNB invests RM43 billion to upgrade grid (w.media)).
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
4🇺🇸 ERCOT West (West Texas & Panhandle)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade ADemand 46Build 9198
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $55/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Connection
Connection difficulty Low, typical wait 1-2 years.
For new supply
The same fast energy-only build path, plus the Permian Basin 765 kV transmission plan, the unlock for otherwise stranded West Texas supply.
Regulatory momentum
Favourable, stable. The same open, energy-only connect-and-manage framework as ERCOT statewide; the binding issue in the west is physical export congestion, not regulatory closure.
Beyond the grid
Water is the binding non-grid constraint in West Texas: the region is already water-stressed, the state still does not require most centres to report usage, and large Permian Basin campuses are being pushed to draw non-potable groundwater to avoid straining municipal supply.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
5🇹🇭 Thailand
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade ADemand 55Build 7798
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $105/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Connection
Connection difficulty Moderate, typical wait 2-4 years.
For new supply
A 2,000 MW direct-PPA pilot opens a route for new private generation to sell straight to data centers, with EGAT transmission upgrades behind it.
Regulatory momentum
Favourable, improving. A 2,000 MW direct-PPA pilot is opening for data centres and EGAT is investing to upgrade the Eastern Economic Corridor transmission bottleneck.
Beyond the grid
Water is the sharpest non-grid constraint: over 65 percent of projects cluster in the Eastern Economic Corridor, whose main reservoirs are officially classed as critically stressed in the dry season, and farmers and fishers have raised water-scarcity and consultation concerns as authorities explore desalination.
Scheduled to change
2026: EGAT transmission upgrades and the 2,000 MW direct-PPA pilot advance (EGAT grid upgrade for data centres (The Nation)).
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
6🇺🇸 US Southeast (Atlanta)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade ADemand 50Build 7189
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $72/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 72% (system firm margin 23,831 MW). Wholesale about $44.0/MWh, 22% renewable, 280 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 153 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 50 months.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, improving. Georgia's PSC now requires any new load of 100 MW or more to sign a customized contract with financial guarantees, terms up to 15 years and minimum payments (in force since 1 February 2025), and in December 2025 approved roughly 10 GW of new generation, about 80 percent to serve data centres, with cost protections for residential customers. Access is managed and selective but genuinely open.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $27/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 106% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 38.2 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 153 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth; about 38.2 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
7🇭🇰 Hong Kong
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade ADemand 53Build 6587
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $188/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Connection
Connection difficulty Moderate, typical wait 2-3 years.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
8🇮🇳 India
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade ADemand 50Build 6584
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $100/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 71% (system firm margin 107,294 MW). Wholesale about $45.0/MWh, 22% renewable, 710 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Moderate, typical wait 2-4 years.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $28/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 106% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
9🇦🇺 Australia NSW (Sydney)
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade ADemand 56Build 5884
Scarcity now
Peak stress 116% (system firm margin -1,777 MW). Wholesale about $75/MWh, 30% renewable, 540 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $46/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 105% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
10🇫🇷 France
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade ADemand 45Build 7183
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $102/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 77% (system firm margin 22,055 MW). Wholesale about $55.0/MWh, 27% renewable, 40 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Moderate, typical wait 3-4 years (fast track).
For new supply
EDF is marketing ex-thermal sites with strong grid connection for new build, and the nuclear-heavy system favors firm low-carbon supply.
Regulatory momentum
Favourable, stable. France runs a dedicated fast-track for very large consumers on state-designated sites with active RTE coordination, the most open of the big Western European markets.
Beyond the grid
Water and heat permitting are tightening even under the fast-track: French law now requires large data centres to valorise their waste heat, a Senate bill would add charges for heavy water use and more local control, and RTE steers investment away from areas where local opposition is likely.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $22/MWh (40% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 104% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
11🇮🇩 Indonesia
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade ADemand 54Build 5983
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $72/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Connection
Connection difficulty Moderate, typical wait 1-2 years (Batam).
For new supply
PLN is signing record data-centre PPAs, the clearest new-supply opening, though outside-Java reliability and Batam's water limit where it can land.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, stable. PLN is signing record data-centre PPAs (the 450 MW Batam deal), but connection queues could reach 24 months and grids outside Java lack hyperscale-grade reliability.
Beyond the grid
Water siting is the emerging constraint: Batam's data centres depend on rainfall-fed reservoirs, one planned cluster alone would need about 29 million litres a day, and existing plus planned sites could take roughly 8 percent of the island's water supply.
Scheduled to change
2026 to 2027: DayOne's roughly 450 MW Batam campus energizes in phases (w.media).
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
12🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade ADemand 37Build 8582
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $65/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 109% (system firm margin -2,480 MW). Wholesale about $18.0/MWh, 7% renewable, 400 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Low, typical wait 1-3 years.
Scheduled to change
2026: First 200 MW of the Stargate UAE campus targeted for energization (OpenAI).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $11/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 110% of the average price here, wind about 98%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
13🇺🇸 Desert Southwest (Phoenix)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade ADemand 45Build 6881
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $90/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 111% (system firm margin -2,583 MW). Wholesale about $38.0/MWh, 60% renewable, 210 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 95 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 55 months.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $25/MWh (67% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 82% of the average price here, wind about 103%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 23.8 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 95 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth; about 23.8 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
14🇵🇹 Portugal
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade ADemand 42Build 6878
Scarcity now
Peak stress 108% (system firm margin -744 MW). Wholesale about $65.0/MWh, 76% renewable, 125 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $40/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 94% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
15🇦🇺 Australia Victoria (Melbourne)
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 49Build 5877
Scarcity now
Peak stress 119% (system firm margin -1,485 MW). Wholesale about $64/MWh, 36% renewable, 600 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $40/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 103% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
16🇦🇺 Australia Queensland (Brisbane)
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 46Build 6076
Scarcity now
Peak stress 108% (system firm margin -841 MW). Wholesale about $70/MWh, 28% renewable, 560 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $40/MWh (58% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 89% of the average price here, wind about 102%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
17🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 32Build 8575
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $53/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 118% (system firm margin -12,857 MW). Wholesale about $12.0/MWh, 2% renewable, 620 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Low, typical wait 1-3 years.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $7/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 111% of the average price here, wind about 98%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
18🇺🇸 MISO (Midwest)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 47Build 5674
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $60/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Forward capacity price
about $217 per MW-day, annualized (2025/26 planning year). Forward cost pressure: High.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 91% (system firm margin 8,776 MW). Wholesale about $30.0/MWh, 30% renewable, 340 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 382 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 50 months.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, improving. FERC's 18 June 2026 Section 206 show-cause order pushes MISO to set clear large-load connection and cost-allocation rules, reinforcing reforms MISO was already developing for fast-growing Midwest data-centre demand.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $19/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 105% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 95.5 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 382 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth; about 95.5 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
19🇨🇦 Nova Scotia
Premium power prices and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 45Build 5873
Scarcity now
Peak stress 114% (system firm margin -315 MW). Wholesale about $95.0/MWh, 28% renewable, 600 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $59/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 105% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
20🇸🇪 Sweden South (Malmo, SE4)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 40Build 6573
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $90/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 106% (system firm margin -662 MW). Wholesale about $66/MWh, 55% renewable, 40 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Moderate, typical wait 2-4 years.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $41/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 99% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
21🇵🇱 Poland
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade BDemand 45Build 5873
Scarcity now
Peak stress 104% (system firm margin -1,132 MW). Wholesale about $75.0/MWh, 29% renewable, 620 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $46/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 105% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
22🇸🇪 Sweden North (Lulea, SE1/SE2)
Fast-growing demand and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade BDemand 28Build 9172
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $48/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 90% (system firm margin 854 MW). Wholesale about $40/MWh, 92% renewable, 15 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Low, typical wait 1-3 years.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, improving. Svenska kraftnat issued preliminary connection assessments above 5,000 MW across 2025 and early 2026, a record, and has cut the queue through maturity-based requirements so the most ready projects connect faster; its 2026-2035 plan commits about SEK 225 billion, prioritising the industrial north of Norrbotten and Vasterbotten.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $24/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 92% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
23🇮🇹 Italy (Milan, North)
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 49Build 5272
Scarcity now
Peak stress 116% (system firm margin -6,438 MW). Wholesale about $95.0/MWh, 50% renewable, 290 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $59/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 100% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
24🇬🇧 Great Britain
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 67Build 3872
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $138/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Forward capacity price
£27.10 per kW-year (2029/30 (T-4)). Forward cost pressure: Low.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 117% (system firm margin -6,646 MW). Wholesale about $88.0/MWh, 53% renewable, 155 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 283 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 48 months.
For new supply
NESO's first-ready-first-connected reform is issuing Gate 2 offers against a roughly 96 GW queue, so a ready generation project can now advance.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, improving. NESO's TMO4+ reform is issuing Gate 2 offers and reordering a roughly 96 GW queue toward first-ready-first-connected, targeting historic waits of up to 15 years.
Beyond the grid
Land and water permitting is contested even as access improves: ministers have approved hyperscale sites on green belt land, but a 90 MW Buckinghamshire approval was quashed in 2026 after the government admitted a serious error over power and water concerns, and data centres have now been folded into the centralised NSIP planning regime.
Scheduled to change
H2 2026: Next NESO connections application window opens (NESO connections reform).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $55/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 99% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 135.8 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 283 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth; about 135.8 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
25🇰🇷 South Korea
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 60Build 4272
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $132/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Connection
Connection difficulty High, typical wait 3-5 years.
For new supply
The national 18.4 GW plan steers new supply toward Chungcheong and Ulsan, away from congested Seoul.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, improving. Greater Seoul faces severe congestion and local opposition, but the national 18.4 GW plan deliberately steers builds to regions like Chungcheong and Ulsan.
Beyond the grid
Community licence is a hard constraint near the capital: reporting compiled by Seoulz found 17 of 33 permitted Greater Seoul data-centre projects in 2024 to 2025 were delayed or scrapped after resident opposition over electromagnetic fields, noise, heat and property values.
Scheduled to change
By 2029: Phase 1 (about 8.4 GW) of the national 18.4 GW AI data-center plan targeted (Korea 18.4 GW AI data-center plan (Light Reading)).
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
26🇳🇴 Norway
Fast-growing demand and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade BDemand 31Build 7971
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $55/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 70% (system firm margin 8,463 MW). Wholesale about $28.0/MWh, 98% renewable, 30 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Low, typical wait 1-3 years.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, stable. Statnett has indefinitely postponed new connections above 5 MW north of Svartisen and holds a large-load queue of roughly 4,390 MW against 2,691 MW already reserved for data centres; since February 2025 it gives grid-allocation priority to sites that recover waste heat.
Beyond the grid
Data centres have become a social flashpoint in Norway even with abundant renewable power, with local disputes over land, noise and who benefits from cheap hydro.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $17/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 90% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
27🇺🇸 SPP (Southwest Power Pool)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 35Build 7171
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $54/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 112% (system firm margin -4,481 MW). Wholesale about $28.0/MWh, 48% renewable, 290 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 171 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 50 months.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, improving. FERC's 18 June 2026 Section 206 show-cause order directs SPP to justify or reform its large-load rules; SPP's relatively uncongested, low-cost footprint and active courting of new load make it one of the more open US responses.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $17/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 101% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 42.8 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 171 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth; about 42.8 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
28🇫🇮 Finland
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 34Build 7371
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $58/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 93% (system firm margin 872 MW). Wholesale about $38.0/MWh, 52% renewable, 50 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Low, typical wait 1-3 years.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, worsening. From 1 July 2026 Finland moves data-centre electricity from the lower tax category II to the general category I, raising the power tax by about 2.19 cents per kWh, and Fingrid is restricting new connections in some areas until 2027 while it consults on the KJV2026 demand-connection code (draft 12 June 2026). A replacement incentive for value-added data centres is due in autumn 2026.
Beyond the grid
Finland leads on turning data-centre waste heat into district heating: Fortum captures heat from large Espoo-area sites to supply about 40 percent of its regional demand, a real offset to siting friction.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $15/MWh (40% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 98% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
29🇺🇸 CAISO (California)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 54Build 4570
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $120/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 108% (system firm margin -3,392 MW). Wholesale about $42.0/MWh, 60% renewable, 230 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 191 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 60 months.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, stable. FERC's 18 June 2026 Section 206 show-cause order directs CAISO to justify or rewrite its large-load and co-location tariff terms, so the rules for connecting a data centre are formally in flux; California's high retail costs and its own cost-allocation review add friction on top.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $28/MWh (67% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 82% of the average price here, wind about 103%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 38.2 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 191 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth; about 38.2 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
30🇨🇱 Chile
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 40Build 6070
Scarcity now
Peak stress 82% (system firm margin 3,061 MW). Wholesale about $75.0/MWh, 67% renewable, 250 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $52/MWh (69% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 81% of the average price here, wind about 103%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
31🇧🇷 Brazil (Sao Paulo)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 41Build 5869
Scarcity now
Peak stress 93% (system firm margin 6,480 MW). Wholesale about $30.0/MWh, 88% renewable, 103 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $18/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 93% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
32🇺🇸 ISO New England
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 45Build 5269
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $88/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Forward capacity price
$3.58 per kW-month (2027/28 (FCA 18)). Forward cost pressure: Moderate.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 89% (system firm margin 2,135 MW). Wholesale about $58.0/MWh, 32% renewable, 260 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 15 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 55 months.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, stable. FERC's 18 June 2026 Section 206 show-cause order requires ISO-NE to justify or reform how large loads connect, in a capacity-constrained, high-cost system where new demand competes for tight winter adequacy.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $36/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 104% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 3.8 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 15 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth; about 3.8 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
33🇨🇦 Saskatchewan
Premium power prices and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 37Build 6268
Scarcity now
Peak stress 90% (system firm margin 454 MW). Wholesale about $68.0/MWh, 19% renewable, 640 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $42/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 107% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
34🇬🇷 Greece
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade BDemand 42Build 5568
Scarcity now
Peak stress 92% (system firm margin 934 MW). Wholesale about $90.0/MWh, 44% renewable, 264 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $56/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 86% of the average price here, wind about 103%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
35🇹🇷 Turkey
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 37Build 6268
Scarcity now
Peak stress 97% (system firm margin 2,179 MW). Wholesale about $55.0/MWh, 43% renewable, 430 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $34/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 102% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
36🇺🇸 Pacific Northwest
Fast-growing demand and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade BDemand 41Build 5567
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $52/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 124% (system firm margin -3,762 MW). Wholesale about $25.0/MWh, 79% renewable, 80 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 130 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 55 months.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, stable. BPA is federally administered and outside FERC's Section 206 orders; it has paused its long-term queue under a Grid Access Transformation Project and is weighing readiness requirements and a 13 MW large-load threshold. Transmission is available except in data-centre pockets like central Oregon and the Portland metro, where about 18 GW of BPA's 24 GW load request is data centres.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $15/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 95% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 32.5 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 130 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth; about 32.5 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
37🇨🇿 Czech Republic
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade BDemand 39Build 5867
Scarcity now
Peak stress 69% (system firm margin 5,510 MW). Wholesale about $75.0/MWh, 16% renewable, 400 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $46/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 108% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
38🇮🇱 Israel
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade BDemand 41Build 5567
Scarcity now
Peak stress 110% (system firm margin -1,550 MW). Wholesale about $62.0/MWh, 12% renewable, 450 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $38/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 108% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
39🇨🇴 Colombia
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 39Build 5867
Scarcity now
Peak stress 105% (system firm margin -618 MW). Wholesale about $60.0/MWh, 77% renewable, 160 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $36/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 96% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
40🇦🇷 Argentina
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 39Build 5867
Scarcity now
Peak stress 70% (system firm margin 8,399 MW). Wholesale about $60.0/MWh, 37% renewable, 360 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $37/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 103% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
41🇷🇴 Romania
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade BDemand 40Build 5566
Scarcity now
Peak stress 83% (system firm margin 2,139 MW). Wholesale about $80.0/MWh, 50% renewable, 260 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $50/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 100% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
42🇪🇪 Estonia
Premium power prices and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 40Build 5566
Scarcity now
Peak stress 85% (system firm margin 217 MW). Wholesale about $70.0/MWh, 56% renewable, 295 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $43/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 99% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
43🇨🇦 New Brunswick
Premium power prices and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 35Build 6265
Scarcity now
Peak stress 99% (system firm margin 44 MW). Wholesale about $55.0/MWh, 34% renewable, 300 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $34/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 104% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
44🇧🇪 Belgium
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 39Build 5565
Scarcity now
Peak stress 90% (system firm margin 1,627 MW). Wholesale about $65.0/MWh, 30% renewable, 140 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $26/MWh (40% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 103% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
45🇸🇰 Slovakia
Premium power prices and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade BDemand 37Build 5865
Scarcity now
Peak stress 83% (system firm margin 1,034 MW). Wholesale about $75.0/MWh, 28% renewable, 105 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $30/MWh (40% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 103% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
46🇭🇺 Hungary
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade BDemand 39Build 5565
Scarcity now
Peak stress 91% (system firm margin 741 MW). Wholesale about $80.0/MWh, 27% renewable, 185 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $32/MWh (40% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 104% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
47🇨🇷 Costa Rica
Premium power prices and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 37Build 5865
Scarcity now
Peak stress 83% (system firm margin 376 MW). Wholesale about $70.0/MWh, 99% renewable, 40 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $42/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 90% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
48🇳🇿 New Zealand
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade BDemand 36Build 6065
Scarcity now
Peak stress 89% (system firm margin 795 MW). Wholesale about $65.0/MWh, 85% renewable, 110 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $39/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 94% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
49🇱🇹 Lithuania
Premium power prices and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 38Build 5564
Scarcity now
Peak stress 95% (system firm margin 100 MW). Wholesale about $70.0/MWh, 59% renewable, 190 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $43/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 98% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
50🇭🇷 Croatia
Premium power prices and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 40Build 5264
Scarcity now
Peak stress 114% (system firm margin -422 MW). Wholesale about $76.0/MWh, 67% renewable, 170 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $47/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 96% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
51🇪🇬 Egypt
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 32Build 6564
Price to beat
Regulated tariff about $18/MWh (administered, high-voltage industrial tariff (EgyptERA)).
Scarcity now
Peak stress 104% (system firm margin -1,918 MW). Wholesale about $9.0/MWh, 13% renewable, 460 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $6/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 108% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
52🇸🇬 Singapore
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade BDemand 60Build 3564
Scarcity now
Peak stress 98% (system firm margin 184 MW). Wholesale about $110.0/MWh, 6% renewable, 410 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $68/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 110% of the average price here, wind about 98%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
53🇧🇬 Bulgaria
Premium power prices and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade BDemand 37Build 5563
Scarcity now
Peak stress 75% (system firm margin 2,089 MW). Wholesale about $70.0/MWh, 33% renewable, 420 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $43/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 104% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
54🇸🇮 Slovenia
Premium power prices and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade BDemand 39Build 5263
Scarcity now
Peak stress 84% (system firm margin 455 MW). Wholesale about $76.0/MWh, 41% renewable, 220 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $47/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 102% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
55🇺🇾 Uruguay
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade BDemand 33Build 6263
Scarcity now
Peak stress 84% (system firm margin 358 MW). Wholesale about $60.0/MWh, 99% renewable, 40 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $37/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 88% of the average price here, wind about 102%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
56🇯🇵 Japan West (Osaka, 60Hz)
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 49Build 4263
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $150/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 99% (system firm margin 587 MW). Wholesale about $80/MWh, 15% renewable, 340 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty High, typical wait 4-8 years.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $50/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 108% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
57🇩🇰 Denmark
Fast-growing demand and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade BDemand 36Build 5562
Scarcity now
Peak stress 145% (system firm margin -1,986 MW). Wholesale about $45.0/MWh, 81% renewable, 140 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $28/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 92% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
58🇩🇪 Germany North (Hamburg)
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 41Build 4861
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $116/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 143% (system firm margin -13,733 MW). Wholesale about $95/MWh, 55% renewable, 350 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty High, typical wait 5-8 years.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, improving. Northern Germany has surplus wind but the binding constraint is grid access, which the national data-centre strategy (18 March 2026) names as the decisive factor for 2026 to 2030; the Energy Efficiency Act requires 100 percent renewable balance-sheet coverage from 1 January 2027 and waste-heat reuse. Hamburg and the north sit closer to generation than the fully allocated southern hubs.
Scheduled to change
Around 2028: SuedLink HVDC link scheduled to complete (Global Data Center Hub: grid delays repricing Europe).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $59/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 99% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
59🇨🇦 British Columbia
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 28Build 6860
Price to beat
Regulated tariff about $40/MWh (regulated, BC Hydro Transmission Service large-industrial rate).
Scarcity now
Peak stress 96% (system firm margin 511 MW). Wholesale about $9.0/MWh, 92% renewable, 12 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $5/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 92% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
60🇦🇹 Austria
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade BDemand 33Build 5860
Scarcity now
Peak stress 112% (system firm margin -982 MW). Wholesale about $62.0/MWh, 87% renewable, 85 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $37/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 93% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
61🇱🇻 Latvia
Premium power prices and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 37Build 5260
Scarcity now
Peak stress 89% (system firm margin 158 MW). Wholesale about $65.0/MWh, 78% renewable, 110 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $39/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 95% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
62🇶🇦 Qatar
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 28Build 6860
Price to beat
Regulated tariff about $30/MWh (administered, subsidized industrial rate (Kahramaa)).
Scarcity now
Peak stress 111% (system firm margin -1,080 MW). Wholesale about $10.0/MWh, 0% renewable, 490 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $6/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 111% of the average price here, wind about 98%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
63🇺🇸 Northern Virginia (PJM)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 61Build 3059
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $130/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Forward capacity price
$333.44 per MW-day (2027/28 delivery year). Forward cost pressure: Severe.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 86% (system firm margin 15,175 MW). Wholesale about $38.0/MWh, 17% renewable, 290 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 144 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 72 months.
For new supply
PJM's reopened first-ready-first-served queue drew about 220 GW in its first cycle (106 GW gas, 67 GW storage), so the build pathway for new supply is genuinely open.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, worsening. FERC preliminarily found PJM's large-load tariff unjust (Section 206) and a DOE order allows curtailing data centres as a class; co-location and cost-allocation economics are in flux.
Beyond the grid
Community and land-use permitting is now decisive here: after residents raised water, noise and Civil War heritage concerns, courts voided the roughly 2,100-acre Prince William Digital Gateway approvals and the county stopped defending them in 2026, ending what would have been one of the world's largest campuses.
Scheduled to change
Aug 2026: RTO responses to FERC's large-load Section 206 order due (17 Aug 2026) (FERC).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $24/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 107% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 36.0 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 144 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth; about 36.0 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
64🇨🇭 Switzerland
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade BDemand 37Build 5059
Scarcity now
Peak stress 58% (system firm margin 6,994 MW). Wholesale about $55.0/MWh, 64% renewable, 30 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $33/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 99% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
65🇿🇦 South Africa
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade BDemand 41Build 4256
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $110/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 110% (system firm margin -3,790 MW). Wholesale about $35.0/MWh, 13% renewable, 800 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty High, typical wait 3-5 years.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $22/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 108% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
66🇨🇦 Manitoba
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade CDemand 24Build 6854
Price to beat
Regulated tariff about $35/MWh (regulated, Manitoba Hydro large-industrial rate).
Scarcity now
Peak stress 73% (system firm margin 1,936 MW). Wholesale about $5.0/MWh, 99% renewable, 6 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $3/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 90% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
67🇰🇼 Kuwait
Tight supply and adequacy risk and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade CDemand 24Build 6050
Price to beat
Regulated tariff about $15/MWh (administered, heavily subsidized industrial rate).
Scarcity now
Peak stress 117% (system firm margin -2,932 MW). Wholesale about $5.0/MWh, 2% renewable, 690 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $3/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 111% of the average price here, wind about 98%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
68🇮🇶 Iraq
Tight supply and adequacy risk and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade CDemand 32Build 4550
Scarcity now
Peak stress 122% (system firm margin -4,073 MW). Wholesale about $8.0/MWh, 4% renewable, 620 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $5/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 110% of the average price here, wind about 98%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
69🇯🇵 Japan East (Tokyo, 50Hz)
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade CDemand 66Build 2250
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $160/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 109% (system firm margin -5,874 MW). Wholesale about $90/MWh, 15% renewable, 450 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Severe, typical wait 5-10 years.
Scheduled to change
By 2027: Frequency-converter capacity between the 50Hz east and 60Hz west rises toward 3 GW (Japan east-west converter capacity (Wikipedia)).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $56/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 108% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
70🇨🇦 Newfoundland & Labrador
Buyers stranded in the connection queue and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade CDemand 27Build 5249
Scarcity now
Peak stress 34% (system firm margin 4,779 MW). Wholesale about $8.0/MWh, 96% renewable, 8 gCO2/kWh.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $5/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 91% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
71🇪🇸 Spain
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade CDemand 45Build 3048
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $98/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 143% (system firm margin -11,699 MW). Wholesale about $60.0/MWh, 64% renewable, 130 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty High, typical wait permit-gated.
Regulatory momentum
Adverse, improving. Nearly 90 percent of Spain's transmission has little or no spare demand capacity, and Red Electrica's first demand access-capacity maps (2 February 2026) show only about a quarter of nodes with room; Royal Decree-Law 7/2026 is now forcing paper projects to pay a capacity-reservation charge or release their permits, while REE's 2026-2030 plan adds 27.7 GW of new demand access.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $41/MWh (68% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 82% of the average price here, wind about 103%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
72🇹🇼 Taiwan
Premium power prices and fast-growing demand.
Grade CDemand 55Build 2244
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $133/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 98% (system firm margin 762 MW). Wholesale about $95.0/MWh, 14% renewable, 570 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Severe, typical wait 3-5 years.
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $59/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 108% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
73🇨🇦 Ontario
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade CDemand 38Build 3042
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $78/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 81% (system firm margin 5,029 MW). Wholesale about $18.0/MWh, 90% renewable, 31 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty High, typical wait 3-5 years.
For new supply
Ontario is procuring new firm supply and building transmission with First Nations equity partners; replacement capacity for the Pickering refurbishment is the near-term opening.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, worsening. Bill 40 lets the Minister prioritize and approve large data-centre connections by economic benefit, so access is becoming managed and selective rather than open.
Beyond the grid
Indigenous consultation is central to new transmission and is increasingly structured as equity partnership rather than a late-stage veto risk: Ontario directed Hydro One to build the Red Lake Transmission Line under a model giving proximate First Nations a 50 percent equity stake, and signed a memorandum of understanding with five First Nations on the Barrie-to-Sudbury line.
Scheduled to change
Sep 2026: Pickering Units 5-8 (about 2,000 MW) go offline for refurbishment (CNSC approves Pickering to end-2026 (NucNet)).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $8/MWh (46% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 88% of the average price here, wind about 102%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth; a supply exit to watch around Sep 2026.
74🇨🇦 Alberta
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade CDemand 44Build 2238
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $80/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 105% (system firm margin -799 MW). Wholesale about $55.0/MWh, 36% renewable, 380 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Severe, typical wait 5-8 years (queue capped).
For new supply
Abundant gas and a pro-build posture favor new generation; the binding constraint is the interim AESO large-load cap, not supply build.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, improving. The interim AESO large-load connection cap is fully subscribed, but a durable Phase 2 framework is expected as the province writes its data-centre rules.
Beyond the grid
Indigenous consultation and water are live legal risks: Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation is seeking judicial review of Alberta's Water Act licence for the proposed roughly 70 billion dollar Wonder Valley AI campus on drought-stricken Treaty 8 land, saying it received no notice or consultation.
Scheduled to change
2026: AESO durable Phase 2 large-load connection framework expected (AESO).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $34/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 103% of the average price here, wind about 99%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth.
75🇺🇸 NYISO (New York)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade CDemand 49Build 1225
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $95/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 85% (system firm margin 4,039 MW). Wholesale about $52.0/MWh, 40% renewable, 195 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 29 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 55 months.
For new supply
The proposed load moratorium does not stop generation, and new firm and storage supply is exactly what the adequacy gap needs, though siting meets the same local opposition.
Regulatory momentum
Adverse, worsening. A statewide moratorium on data centres of 20 MW or more passed the legislature and awaits the Governor's signature, on top of the FERC large-load order.
Beyond the grid
Local consent is now a hard blocker: New York towns from Lysander to Perth to Dryden have passed data-centre moratoria or zoning bans over energy, water and noise, part of a wave in which local opposition delayed or blocked at least 75 US projects worth nearly 130 billion dollars in early 2026.
Scheduled to change
2026: Governor's decision on the statewide 20 MW-plus data-centre moratorium (passed 4 Jun 2026, awaiting signature) (NY Senate).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $32/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 102% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 7.2 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 29 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth; about 7.2 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
76🇨🇦 Quebec
Fast-growing demand and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade CDemand 27Build 1619
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $85/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 69% (system firm margin 11,902 MW). Wholesale about $4.0/MWh, 99% renewable, 5 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Severe, typical wait 4-6 years (authorization-gated).
For new supply
Hydro-Quebec's Action Plan 2035 (about 185 billion CAD) is the new-supply pipeline, developed as partnership with First Nations and Inuit communities.
Regulatory momentum
Mixed, stable. Hydro-Quebec's proposed dedicated data-centre tariff roughly doubles the industrial rate and is pending the Regie de l'energie; managed pricing inside an otherwise open, low-cost system.
Beyond the grid
New supply depends on Indigenous consent: a Quebec First Nation voted to reject a landmark Hydro-Quebec deal, and the utility now frames its large hydro expansion as ongoing partnership with First Nations and Inuit communities rather than one-off settlements.
Scheduled to change
H2 2026: Regie de l'energie ruling on Hydro-Quebec's dedicated data-centre tariff (Hydro-Quebec / CBC).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $2/MWh (60% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 90% of the average price here, wind about 101%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Slow demand growth.
77🇩🇪 Germany South (Frankfurt/Munich)
Fast-growing demand and tight supply and adequacy risk.
Grade CDemand 65Build 411
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $126/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 170% (system firm margin -21,956 MW). Wholesale about $100/MWh, 45% renewable, 330 gCO2/kWh.
Connection
Connection difficulty Severe, typical wait 7-10 years.
For new supply
New supply is pulled toward ex-coal corridors and the north; SuedLink (around 2028) is the structural unlock for moving that power south.
Regulatory momentum
Adverse, improving. Frankfurt's transmission is fully allocated for years and new load is pushed to ex-coal corridors, but the SuedLink link (around 2028) and grid reform are underway.
Beyond the grid
Efficiency permitting adds a hard design constraint: under the Energy Efficiency Act, data centres commissioned from July 2026 must reuse a rising share of waste heat (toward 20 percent by 2028) or feed district heating, with fines up to 100,000 euros for non-compliance.
Scheduled to change
Around 2028: SuedLink HVDC link scheduled to complete (Global Data Center Hub: grid delays repricing Europe).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $63/MWh (63% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 86% of the average price here, wind about 103%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth.
78🇮🇪 Ireland (Dublin)
Fast-growing demand and buyers stranded in the connection queue.
Grade CDemand 60Build 410
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $150/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 114% (system firm margin -1,059 MW). Wholesale about $88.0/MWh, 54% renewable, 270 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 5 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 48 months.
For new supply
New grid-connected supply faces the same congestion; the near-term route is on-site or stored generation that lets a load self-supply, the condition under which Dublin connections reopened.
Regulatory momentum
Adverse, improving. The Dublin data-centre connection moratorium was lifted in December 2025, but only for projects that self-generate or store their full demand; grid-only connection stays effectively closed in the east.
Beyond the grid
Community and resource pressure underlies the grid limit: data centres' large and rising share of national electricity has made them a sustained political flashpoint, which is the backdrop to the connection restrictions.
Scheduled to change
2026: EirGrid assesses conditional self-supply connections under the new Large Energy Users policy (CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy, William Fry).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $55/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 99% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 3.5 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 5 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Moderate demand growth; about 3.5 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
79🇳🇱 Netherlands
Fast-growing demand and premium power prices.
Grade CDemand 62Build 10
Price to beat
A 100 MW load on our standard case pays about $125/MWh delivered here. A competitive supply offer is measured against that level.
Scarcity now
Peak stress 133% (system firm margin -5,235 MW). Wholesale about $75.0/MWh, 48% renewable, 280 gCO2/kWh.
Waiting demand
About 38 GW in the interconnection queue, typical wait 96 months.
For new supply
New generation sits in the same queue; the state's eight-measure push to free 5 to 10 GW by 2030 is the opening to watch.
Regulatory momentum
Adverse, stable. Courts continue to uphold the TenneT connection waiting list, over 14,000 businesses are queued, and grid-only connection is unavailable in much of the country.
Beyond the grid
Non-grid permitting is also binding: the country paused new hyperscale builds partly over land use and water, a farmers' group has appealed a Microsoft data-centre permit, and Amsterdam now makes heat reuse a mandatory condition of new data-centre permits.
Scheduled to change
By 2030: Dutch government targets freeing 5 to 10 GW of grid capacity via its eight-measure campaign (Parliamentary letter on grid congestion, Stibbe (Feb 2026)).
Battery arbitrage (modelled)
Typical daily peak-to-trough spread about $46/MWh (62% of baseline), the spread a storage asset arbitrages per cycle.
Capture rate (modelled)
Solar captures about 101% of the average price here, wind about 100%. Below 100 means that technology sells into below-average hours.
Competing supply
About 30.4 GW of the queue is likely to complete after historical withdrawal, out of 38 GW queued: the real competition a new project faces.
Forward supply gap
Fast demand growth; about 30.4 GW of competing supply likely to complete.
The index multiplies two 0 to 100 reads built from the cited pillars behind every PGIQ Rating and our connection, reliability, forward-cost, live-grid, regulatory-momentum and permitting layers. It is our opinion, labelled and falsifiable through the public track record, not a revenue estimate. Sellers face stricter regulation than buyers, so an adverse or closed regime pulls the score down even where demand is high.

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