The PGIQ Ratings: 84 rated market and regional views, scored and ranked

Announced 17 Aug 2026 in St. John's by the Prime Minister with the premiers of Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec. The agreements terminate the 1969 Churchill Falls power contract, under which Hydro-Quebec bought the output at 0.2 cents per kWh, and replace the December 2024 MOU. Federal financing of $10 billion supports Churchill Falls upgrades, developing Gull Island, co-investment with the Innu of Labrador in a 2,000 MW Labrador onshore wind project, and associated transmission. Ottawa puts the combined projects at nearly $70 billion and 14,000 MW, nearly tripling Churchill Falls capacity, supporting 23,000 construction-phase jobs and $31 billion of GDP through the early 2040s. Newfoundland and Labrador retains up to 2,350 MW against 1,990 MW under the 2024 MOU, plus 400 MW of the wind project's output, and a guaranteed 985 MW transmission portfolio into New York, New England and Ontario markets. Provincial benefit is stated at $49 billion (2026 NPV) against $36 billion. TWO QUALIFIERS THE HEADLINE NUMBER DOES NOT CARRY: the agreement is non-binding, with definitive agreements targeted by end-2026, and the Churchill Falls expansion itself (CFX) was removed from it, leaving a feasibility study with no commercial arrangements in place. The near-term physical change for a load siting in this province is the Labrador West transmission line, not the 14,000 MW.

The 17 Aug 2026 agreements end the 1969 power contract, under which Hydro-Quebec bought Churchill Falls output at 0.2 cents per kWh, and replace the December 2024 MOU. Hydro-Quebec continues to take Churchill Falls and Gull Island power under new commercial terms and participates in the Churchill Falls expansion, Gull Island and the associated transmission build. Premier Fréchette framed the agreement as securing Quebec's energy independence and enabling growth through renewable energy. For a large load weighing Quebec, this is long-run supply certainty on a system whose access is authorization-gated and whose dedicated data-centre tariff is still before the Regie. The new pricing terms are not stated in the government releases and are not recorded here.

The federal government referred the Labrador Trough Clean Power, Critical Minerals and Infrastructure Corridor to the Major Projects Office, which coordinates federal financing and accelerates permitting. Pre-development funding under the First and Last Mile Fund covers a Labrador West transmission expansion to connect western Labrador mining operations to the grid, and planning work for the Kami iron ore project near Wabush. The province separately reports a $1 billion (2026 NPV) federal commitment to the Labrador West line. Lack of power has been the stated constraint on developing the region, so transmission is the binding item for any large industrial load there.

VOCM reports that CFX, the expansion of the Churchill Falls generating station itself, has been taken out of the new agreement. A feasibility study will be completed but commercial arrangements are not in place. The 14,000 MW headline therefore rests on Gull Island, the 2,000 MW wind project and existing Churchill Falls capacity rather than on an expansion of the plant. Recorded separately from the announcement because the distinction between a committed project and a study is the whole question for anyone pricing future supply.

At a special PUCT open meeting on 14 Aug 2026, ERCOT officials said the verification audit ordered by Gov. Abbott covers about 250 to 300 projects representing roughly 200 GW of future demand, will take several months, and is confined to the Batch Zero study. ERCOT general counsel Chad Seely said the work was already planned as spot checks and has been moved to the front of the interconnection study process. ERCOT still aims to complete the first batch study by its original April deadline.

PJM filed with FERC on 13 Aug 2026 an Interim Resource Adequacy Service (IRAS) covering new Large Loads that neither bring their own capacity nor have it covered through the Reliability Backstop Procurement. In a supply emergency PJM would direct affected zones to reduce or transfer demand from those loads before calling on Load Management customers who are paid in advance to curtail, and before any action affecting residential consumers. PJM would build and maintain a Large Load Registry of all Large Loads, existing and new, and share it with states, utilities and regulators. From the 2029/2030 capacity auction, new Large Loads that bring no new supply would be excluded from the future need PJM procures against. PJM states that of 32 GW of forecast demand growth between 2024 and 2030, 30 GW is data centres. Retail cost allocation and load-reduction plans are left to the states, which is where the framework can stall. PJM asked FERC to accept within 60 days. This is a proposal, not a rule: it is unaccepted, and the six large-load Section 206 proceedings it sits alongside are still awaiting a Commission ruling on the abeyance requests filed in early August.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced on 12 Aug 2026 that DOE will not designate the Lake Erie-Canada, Southwestern Grid Connector or Tribal Energy Access corridors, the three National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors carried forward from Dec 2024. The areas cover parts of Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska. None had been designated, so no existing federal backstop siting authority is withdrawn, but the route to one closes. The Federal Power Act still lets a future secretary restart the process.

PJM said on 11 Aug 2026 it is evaluating changes to interconnection reliability requirements for computational loads including data centers and crypto mining, after roughly 3.8 GW of load tripped offline in Dominion's zone on 22 Jul 2026 following a 230 kV fault, the largest such event in PJM history. Candidate requirements cover voltage and frequency ride-through, on-site generation behaviour, and reconnection after disturbances. PJM restored its area control error within nine minutes against a 30 minute NERC requirement. Revises the earlier 3 GW figure for the same event.

BloombergNEF estimated on 5 Aug 2026 that the Texas interconnection pause exposes about 49.8 GW of data center projects, roughly 20% of the 253 GW US pipeline, with leasing revenue at risk of about $8 billion by 1Q 2027 on a 60% AI-compute mix and roughly $15 billion in a full-delay case. BNEF also forecasts about 8.25 GW of ERCOT data center additions through 2030. All figures are BNEF estimates, not measured outcomes.

The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin voted unanimously (6 Aug 2026) to rescind the completeness determination for American Transmission Company's roughly $1.4 billion 345 kV project, forcing a restart of the application after more than 550 design adjustments. Commissioners said the vote should not be read as a rejection of the project. ATC says it is the first such action in the PSC's 95 year history.

The AEMC delivered advice to the Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council on 28 Jul 2026, released publicly 5 Aug 2026, recommending that data centres surrender REGO certificates from new additional generation, contract firm capacity, register as NEM market participants, and use connection agreements for flexibility and co-location. Ministers agreed to progress the framework; rule change requests go to the ECMC in Sep 2026 and federal legislation is targeted for early 2027. NSW separately introduced the Electricity Infrastructure Investment Amendment Bill 2026 on 5 Aug, giving the state minister REZ-style powers over grid access for loads of 5 MW or more and placing network costs on data centres rather than NSW customers.

Eskom reported (4 Aug 2026) 441 consecutive days without load-shedding, demand met 100% of the time from 1 Apr to 30 Jul 2026, and a daily energy availability factor of 82.04% on 26 Jul 2026, its highest since 2017. The winter outlook to 31 Aug 2026 continues to project no load-shedding. Updates the prior one year entry.

Each of the six RTOs and ISOs, with their transmission owners, moved to hold its Section 206 show cause proceeding in abeyance: PJM on 28 Jul 2026 for 90 days (EL26-67), and SPP (EL26-68, 95 days), NYISO (EL26-69), MISO (EL26-70), CAISO (EL26-71) and ISO-NE (EL26-72) on 3 Aug 2026 for 90 days. The Commission set an answer period closing 7 Aug 2026. These are requests, not grants. Unless and until FERC rules on them the existing response deadlines stand. US wide in effect; keyed here because Northern Virginia is the largest affected concentration.

ERCOT received a letter from Gov. Greg Abbott on 3 Aug 2026 directing it to conduct a verification process before advancing any data center Large Loads through interconnection. ERCOT confirmed it did not notify interconnecting TSPs and DSPs of Batch Zero classifications by the scheduled 7 Aug 2026 date, and will file a good cause exception request ahead of the PUCT open meeting on 20 Aug 2026. Duration and scope of the verification step are not yet defined.

Ofgem opened a consultation on 29 Jul 2026 proposing a Data Centre Commitment Fee for projects above 40 MW, set between GBP 237,500 and 712,500 per MW, roughly 2.5% to 7.5% of average project cost. A 500 MW project would need approximately GBP 119 million to 356 million of security. The fee is returned if the project proceeds to energisation and may be forfeited on termination or non-compliance, alongside data centre specific queue management milestones on credible end-user, long-lead equipment procurement, and financial and technical capability. It cuts both ways: it could improve access for viable projects by clearing a queue that grew from 41 GW to 125 GW between Nov 2024 and Jun 2025, of which about 73 GW is data centre demand, but it imposes a substantial financing and forfeiture burden on credible developers. Consultation closes 16 Sep 2026.

The Ministry of Power told Parliament on 27 Jul 2026 that data centres may add 26.3 GW to the national grid by 2031-32, against an earlier estimate of 13.56 GW, based on projects reported by states. The ministry said the load would be served largely by renewable capacity and flagged grid balancing as the main concern given sharp load ramps.

A transmission line in Ashburn faulted and went out of service on 22 Jul 2026, after which data centers' own protection systems transferred them to backup generation. PJM reported more than 3 GW dropped off, about 3% of system demand at the time, producing a measurable frequency change but no reliability impact to the bulk power system. Dominion said no load was shed and that it did not disconnect the sites. A comparable 2024 Northern Virginia event was reported at about 1.5 GW. NERC is reviewing the event.

In Docket RD26-7 (16 Jul 2026) FERC directed NERC to file one or more new or modified mandatory reliability standards governing the integration of computational loads by 31 Dec 2026, to propose registry criteria bringing computational load entities under the mandatory framework, and to file a Phase II work plan by 1 Mar 2027. US wide in effect; keyed here because Northern Virginia is the largest affected concentration.

Gov. Hochul signed an executive order (14 Jul 2026) pausing environmental permits for data centers of 50 MW or more for up to one year while the state builds a regulatory framework covering energy, water and air impacts. The June legislature bill remains unsigned; the EO is in force now.

The 2028/29 Base Residual Auction (14 Jul 2026) procured 138,318 MW UCAP but cleared the footprint at the FERC-approved cap of $325/MW-day, 6,821 MW short of the reliability requirement, the second consecutive shortfall year.

A dayslong heat dome over the Midwest drove demand to about 122 GW and MISO invoked maximum generation emergency procedures (15 Jul 2026), its second emergency of the month.

The Data Centre Regulation AR 117/2026 (9 Jun 2026) codifies BYOG, prioritizing large data centers that bring their own generation. AESO's proposed BYOG process closed feedback 13 Jul 2026, with rollout expected Aug 2026 and intakes about every nine months.

The FY2026 budget imposes a consumption tax of $0.011/kWh on all electricity used by Virginia data centers from 1 Jul 2026, including behind-the-meter and self-generated supply, projected at about $600M a year. A structural cost adder in the world's largest market.

The Regie de l'energie hearing on Hydro-Quebec's proposed ~13 c/kWh data-centre rate is now set for fall 2026, with a decision expected late 2026 or early 2027, later than the H2 2026 in-force date originally proposed.

The PUCT approved (18 Jun 2026) ERCOT's Batch Zero framework, which studies readiness-screened large loads in batches with a Jul 2026 cutoff for the 2028-2032 study. Formal regulatory sign-off on the readiness-tested queue.

MISO's long-term forecast (13 Apr 2026) sees peak load rising from 121 GW in 2025 to about 163 GW by 2035, led by data centers, with 8 to 14 GW of DC load expected online in 2026-2027. MISO flags high uncertainty and signs of right-sizing.

Japan restarted Unit 6 of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, its largest nuclear station, on 9 Feb 2026, reaching full operation around mid-March. It is TEPCO's first reactor to resume after the post-2011 shutdowns, and adds roughly 9,500 GWh a year of firm, non-emitting generation to the 50Hz eastern system that Tokyo loads sit on. Japan now has 15 operating reactors totalling 33 GW. FOLLOW-THROUGH, NOT PROMISE: this one is delivering. The caution sits next door, where TEPCO has pushed Unit 7 (another 1,356 MW) back to 2029 or 2030, and where national policy assumes up to 30 reactors running by FY2040 against 15 today, 3 approved, 6 under review and 8 that have not applied.

TEPCO has delayed the restart of Unit 7, a second 1,356 MW reactor at the same station, to 2029 or 2030. Recorded separately from the Unit 6 restart because the two are routinely reported together as one recovery story, and they are not: one is generating and one is a date that has already moved. Japan's FY2040 policy target of about 20 per cent nuclear needs up to 30 reactors operating against 15 today.

Northern Virginia ended 2025 with roughly 4 GW of operating data-center capacity, up about 37% year on year and still the largest such market on earth, about 13% of global operational capacity. Demand keeps choosing the region despite the grid strain, an argument it may merit more than a middling tier, and a live test of whether access can keep pace.

A DOE 202(c) order (30 Jun 2026) authorizes PJM to direct curtailment of data centers and other large loads with backup generation as a last resort; the 2 Jul 2026 forecast peak of 166,241 MW approached the 2006 record of 165,563 MW and Pre-Emergency Demand Response was activated.

Meta began construction (Jul 2026) of a roughly 1 GW, CAD $13 billion AI-optimized data center in Sturgeon County, northeast of Edmonton, its first in Canada and 33rd worldwide, with the company reporting that it will match the site's electricity to clean and renewable supply. That is a procurement commitment, not a description of the physical grid mix. A build of this scale is concrete large-load momentum on the Alberta grid, and a live test of the interim connection framework.

Section 206 show-cause orders (18 Jun 2026) preliminarily find each RTO/ISO tariff unjust and unreasonable for large-load integration; 60 days to respond (due 17 Aug 2026), covering study speed, cost allocation, co-location and behind-the-meter generation.

The large-load queue kept climbing through the first half of 2026, and ERCOT introduced evidence-based readiness screens (site control, permits, financing, equipment orders) to separate committed builds from speculative ones. A market disciplining a queue this large is one where large loads genuinely want to build, supporting the rating.

Phase 1 closed on 12 Jun 2026 with all 1,200 MW of the interim data-centre connection limit allocated and contracted; a durable Phase 2 framework awaits Alberta's data-centre regulation.

Legislature passed a one-year pause on permits for data centres of 20 MW or more (4 Jun 2026); not yet signed by the Governor. Would add environmental, efficiency and ratepayer conditions.

Under the TMO4+ reform, Gate 2 offers for applications up to 2030 are being issued by end-Jun 2026; NESO estimates ~13 GW of firm demand can connect before 2030, with ~86 GW more in 2030 to 2035.

First AEMO disclosure (Jun 2026) shows 11 data-centre projects totalling 5.4 GW in the NEM connection queue, ~60% NSW and ~40% VIC; AEMC draft connection-standard rule for large loads due final mid-2026.

Meta's three-building Lulea campus in northern Sweden, its first hyperscale data center outside the US, runs almost entirely on Lule River hydropower and was sited for some of the lowest, cleanest electricity in Europe. That is exactly the low-cost, low-carbon, firm-supply profile behind this rating.

Meta's three-building Lulea campus, its first hyperscale data center outside the US, runs almost entirely on Lule River hydropower with some of the lowest, cleanest power in Europe, confirming the cheap, clean, firm profile that makes this the lowest all-in market we compile.

G42, OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia and SoftBank are building Stargate UAE, a 1 GW compute cluster inside a 5 GW UAE-US AI campus in Abu Dhabi, with the first 200 MW targeted for 2026, powered by nuclear, solar and gas. A build of this scale confirms the abundant firm power and pro-build stance behind the Tier 1 rating.

A full year without load-shedding reached 16 May 2026 (now 406 consecutive days); unplanned outages down ~3.5 GW year-on-year and the winter outlook projects continued stability. Updates the prior 231-day entry.

A court ruled (29 Apr 2026) that TenneT may keep Goodman's 70 MW Haarlemmermeer data centre on the congestion waiting list, finding grid public interest outweighs the developer's claim; grid-only connection near Amsterdam stays effectively closed.

Seattle City Council passed a one-year moratorium on siting data centres above 20 MVA (Jun 2026) pending a study of grid, land-use and ratepayer impacts.

Nscale and Aker announced Stargate Norway, OpenAI's first dedicated AI data center in Europe, sited in Narvik to run on Norwegian hydropower, starting around 230 MW with room to expand. Google is separately building its first Norwegian data center in Skien. Builds of this scale confirm the cheap, clean, firm hydropower profile behind the rating.

A new large-load rate for sites over 5 MW, roughly double the current large-power rate, pending Regie de l'energie approval for H2 2026.

811 projects (106 GW gas, 67 GW storage) under the first-ready, first-served reform, which aims to speed connections in the world's largest market.

The voltage-based RP4 tariff (from July 2025) shifts more network and capacity cost onto high-voltage users like data centers, raising bills an estimated 10 to 14% before surcharges. Rising power cost is the main argument against the rating, a real headwind even as momentum stays strong.

The government's plan targets 18.4 GW of AI data-center capacity by 2035, about KRW 550 trillion in the first phase, deliberately spread to regions like Chungcheong and Ulsan to relieve Seoul-area congestion. Momentum on this scale confirms Korea is a serious large-load market, the basis for the rating.

Microsoft is developing a southern-Finland data-center region across Espoo, Kirkkonummi and Vihti, with a Fortum partnership to reuse server heat as district heating for tens of thousands of homes, one of the world's largest such schemes, and has secured land near Vaasa for a second site. Sustained hyperscale investment confirms the clean, low-cost, reliable profile behind the rating.

New grid links are allowed only for projects that can self-generate or store their full demand; grid-only connection stays effectively closed in the east.

The 2027/28 Base Residual Auction (17 Dec 2025) cleared the whole footprint at the FERC-approved cap of $333.44/MW-day, the first auction where the entire RTO fell short of the reliability requirement; PJM attributes ~5,100 MW of forecast load growth to data centers.

Over 70% from data centers; ERCOT models ~138 GW of large loads by 2030, the demand side now racing as fast as supply. Demand at this scale choosing Texas confirms the cheap, fast-to-connect profile behind the strong rating.

From 2021 to mid-2025 Malaysia approved 143 data-center projects worth nearly RM144 billion, concentrated in Johor next to Singapore, where the pipeline runs to multiple gigawatts. Momentum on this scale confirms Malaysia as Southeast Asia's leading large-load destination, the basis for the rating.

DayOne signed a roughly 450 MW (511 MVA) grid-power deal with PT PLN Batam, Indonesia's largest, with phased delivery from 2026 to 2027, part of a Batam-Nongsa cluster with two sites live, three under construction and eight more announced. Momentum on this scale confirms Indonesia as a rising large-load market.

The Board of Investment approved 36 data-center projects worth roughly 728 billion baht in 2025, and AWS opened a $5 billion Thailand region with three availability zones. Momentum of this scale confirms Thailand as Southeast Asia's leading large-load magnet, the basis for the rating.

From roughly 500 MW across 28 colocation facilities in early 2026, the DICT is targeting about 18 GW of additional data-center capacity over the next decade and 1.5 GW by 2027. Ambition on this scale confirms real large-load momentum, the upside behind the rating.

CLP reports about 99.999% supply reliability, roughly 2.6 minutes of unplanned outage a year, and both utilities say they hold adequate capacity and backup. That is a strong local delivery record on the utility's own published measure, and a real strength for a large load, even as high cost and land scarcity constrain the rating. It describes distribution performance, not the terms of a firm service contract.

Roughly 17 of 33 permitted data-center projects in the greater Seoul area over 2024-2025 were delayed or cancelled, largely on grid congestion and local opposition. That is the access constraint behind the Tier 3 call and the push to regional siting.

Quoted waits reach up to 10 years and whole regions are full for the decade; connection, not generation, is the binding constraint.

A first-ready, first-connected overhaul targets historic waits of up to 15 years; projects aiming for 2030 should have offers by early 2026.

TNB's Green Lane pathway aims to shorten data-center power connections to about 12 months from the usual 36 to 48, and the utility is investing around RM43 billion to upgrade the grid. Fast, funded connection is the access strength behind the rating, even as concentrated demand strains capacity.

Rapid hyperscale growth is straining Batam's generation and transmission, with warnings that connection-queue delays could reach 24 months without coordinated upgrades, and grids outside Java often lack hyperscale-grade reliability. That is the availability and access risk behind the Tier 3 call.

EGAT is investing about 31 billion baht, with further tranches, to upgrade transmission, because the Eastern Economic Corridor grid was built for conventional industry, not concentrated hyperscale load. That transmission gap is the access constraint behind the Tier 3 call.

Thin reserve margins left the Luzon grid issuing 14 yellow and 3 red alerts during the 2024 dry season, and a 2025 yellow alert with just 659 MW of reserve. That fragility is the availability risk behind the Tier 4 call, and why provincial reliability lags Metro Manila.

Hong Kong is standing up a government AI Supercomputing Centre and CLP is upgrading the Northern Metropolis grid for kilowatt-density AI load, real but modest momentum on a small, land-constrained system.

Power demand growing ~7% a year and $30B of data-center investment committed, with renewables raising the clean share.

The completed plant cleans the grid and adds firm, low-carbon baseload as the sovereign-AI build accelerates.

Eskom's energy-availability factor is recovering, a major reliability turnaround from the 2023 crisis.

The Act lets the Minister prioritize and approve large data-centre connections by economic benefit; approved projects proceed, new ones face selection.

A temporary cap on new large-load connections while AESO designs a durable framework for a wave of data-center interest.

The US Southeast is now a top-three North American market by build, with Southern Company adding gas and solar.

The Desert Southwest is now one of the fastest-growing US data-center markets on land, solar and a pro-build posture.

State-backed AI infrastructure accelerates power demand on the cheapest-tier grid in the set.